How Much Will the Aidan Hutchinson Injury Impact the Lions?
On Sunday, the Detroit Lions made a statement when they pounded the Dallas Cowboys 47-9. Almost everything that could have gone right for the Lions went right in all three phases as they improved to 4-1 heading into their Week 7 showdown against the Vikings. Unfortunately, early in the second half, star defensive end Aidan Hutchinson went down with a leg injury so gruesome that FOX wouldn’t show the replay. He underwent successful surgery on his tibia and fibula on Monday.
It was a devastating injury for a player who has terrorized quarterbacks since entering the league in 2022. He’s amassed 28.5 sacks through 39 games, including 7.5 in five games to begin this season, tied for the league lead. But his impact goes far deeper than the box score shows.
According to PFF (Pro Football Focus), Hutchinson had 45 total pressures in five games. This was ten more than the next closest player, Nick Bosa, who has played in six games so far. His 12 “stops” (plays that constitute a loss for the offense) are tied for 12th among EDGE defenders. And the NFL’s NextGenStats credit him with a 16.2% pass-rush win rate, 12th in the entire NFL. He is PFF’s highest-graded EDGE defender.
Aidan Hutchinson is great at football. This isn’t news to anyone who has followed his career since his days at Michigan. But how has the rest of the Lions defensive line fared this season, and can we expect them to step up and replace Hutchinson in his absence?
Unfortunately for the Lions, they were already down one EDGE defender going into Week 6. Former Viking Marcus Davenport played two games before tearing his triceps, forcing him to miss the season. He was productive in his limited playing time, accumulating seven pressures and half of a sack before going down.
The rest of the defensive line hasn’t been as good against the pass. Outside of Davenport, they have had 52 combined pressures and seven sacks. This isn’t insufficient production, but when Hutchinson accounts for 38% of the team’s pressures and half of the team’s sacks, you wonder if the rest of the group can sustain their success throughout a season.
Hutchinson also changes how offenses use personnel. For example, the Buccaneers chipped him with a running back earlier in the season. Hutchinson fought through it, dipped below the offensive tackle, and still got a sack.
Like how defenses defend Justin Jefferson, offenses know that Hutchinson can wreck games even when he is specifically being accounted for. This disrupts gameplans and forces quarterbacks to think about one more thing in their progressions.
Finally, Hutchinson’s impact goes beyond just the defensive line. He helps a back-seven group that has allowed two 300-yard passers through five games. The Lions’ defense is good, ranking 11th in EPA (expected points added) and 4th in DVOA. How good are the other ten players when their best player, who has the potential to impact everyone else, is out for the season?
How will this impact the Vikings on Sunday? To begin the season, they have faced five strong defensive fronts. With Hutchinson’s absence, the Vikings’ offensive line will get a slight breather for the first time in 2024. This isn’t to say that the Lions can’t get any pass rush going. But without Hutchinson, they will face off against the Vikings without a premier rusher.
The obvious players to benefit are Christian Darrisaw and Brian O’Neill, one of the league’s best tackle combinations. But Hutchinson is known to wreak havoc inside with twists and stunts on unsuspecting interior linemen.
Right guard Ed Ingram is especially susceptible to these plays from defenses, which is perhaps his biggest weakness as a pro. He still needs to be prepared for these types of plays, but seeing as Hutchinson normally lines up on the right side of the offensive line, Ingram could be the biggest beneficiary on Sunday.
Detroit will be forced to lean on Josh Paschal, Isaac Ukwu, and James Houston to hold up their part of the EDGE room collectively. Interior linemen like Alim McNeil and DJ Reader also need to step up to take the pressure off of the EDGE defenders.
The Lions have a roster ready to contend for a Super Bowl. Can they sustain that level of play beginning Sunday in Minnesota?
