Sam Darnold Struggles Where the Titans Specialize
Sam Darnold has cooled off from his hot start to begin the year for the purple team, which seemingly began to take effect in the second half of the Vikings’ Week 4 victory over their border rival Green Bay Packers.
Over the first four games of the season, Darnold tallied a total of 11 touchdown passes with three interceptions while averaging 233 passing yards per game and a QBR of 73.9. In the five games since, he’s only racked up six passing touchdowns while being intercepted seven times, averaging 242 yards per game and a QBR of 46.5. His average yards per pass attempt has also dwindled from 8.8 yards over the first four weeks down to 7.9.
According to the eye test as well, he’s seemed visibly more timid while in the pocket, which hasn’t really stopped him from trying to drive the ball downfield at a decent rate, but has led to more turnovers as the season moves along.
According to NFL Pro’s insights, there is a glaring area that Sam Darnold struggles performing against, and that would be going up against zone coverage.
Per NFL Pro, out of Darnold’s ten total interceptions this season, nine of them come against zone coverage (tied for most in the NFL), while only four of his 17 total touchdown passes come against zone. On the inverse, that leaves him throwing 13 touchdowns and only one interception when attacking a defender in a man coverage assignment. He also averages 8.1 yards per attempt on the season against zone compared to his 8.5 yards against man.
This metric is also shown in Justin Jefferson, who averages 4.3 yards per route run against coverages with a single-high safety, usually a man-style defensive coverage. This is more than double his 1.8 yards per route run against split safeties, more commonly used in zone-style defensive coverages. A whopping 568 of Jefferson’s 831 total receiving yards have come against single-high, and all three of Darnold’s interceptions against Jacksonville came when targeting Jefferson against split safeties.
It’s not as much an indictment on Jefferson as it is on Darnold’s struggles deciphering zone coverages, and that’s something that the Tennessee Titans defensive unit will present him this week. According to NFL Pro, the Titans play zone coverage on 73.2% of snaps, the 11th-highest rate in the NFL. When in this coverage, they allow the 3rd-fewest passing yards per attempt this season at just 6.4.
Tennessee also matches up well against Sam Darnold’s strengths in the passing game. NFL Pro has the Vikings’ passing offense as the 13th-best off of play-action and Tennessee’s defense as the 2nd-best in defense of it. They also have Minnesota as the 3rd-best offense passing against no pressure, while Tennessee is the 5th-best defensively with no pressure generated. This means that Sam Darnold’s struggles against zone coverage can play right into what the Titans excel at defensively this season.
If there were ever a time for Darnold to get back on track, it’s this week against a “lesser” opponent when coming off of a bad game against an even worse team. If Darnold can just return to the efficiency that he had to begin the season, he’ll have the Vikings in a good spot on Sunday and moving forward.
The Key Matchup for Vikings at Titans