Running Backs Do Matter
It’s become a bit of a cliche among the analytics community to say that “running backs don’t matter.” More precisely, the claim is that (a) the difference in value between the best and worst running backs is not very large, and (b) running back performance is not very stable from year to year.
In support of this view, it may be pointed out that Super Bowl-winning teams have rarely spent big on their running backs, and plenty of teams have found high-quality running backs in the later rounds of the NFL draft (e.g., Isaiah Pacheco). This suggests that a team should avoid spending major cap space or draft capital on the RB position.
However, not every analysis supports this view. PFF’s Wins Above Replacement statistic, which is based on tracking data, actually finds a bigger spread in on-field value among running backs than among offensive or defensive linemen. In other words, according to PFF, a top running back is actually more valuable than a top EDGE.
It is always difficult to disentangle the effect of a running back from the impact of his offensive line, but some recent studies have been able to identify stable measures of running back success.
In other words, the mantra that “running backs don’t matter” may have been premature. And when it comes to the 2024 Minnesota Vikings, it’s hard to believe that star running back Aaron Jones isn’t one of the key drivers of their early season success. In 2023, RB1 Alexander Mattison averaged 3.9 yards per carry. In 2024, Jones is averaging 4.9.
To be sure, the improvement of the run game can’t be attributed entirely to the addition of Jones. One of the major schematic changes of head coach Kevin O’Connell this season is a shift from outside zone to duo, a running scheme that features double teams from the interior offensive lineman. So far, the Vikings’ offensive linemen have excelled under this blocking scheme.
Nonetheless, it’s hard to deny that Jones’ vision and decisiveness have played a role in the resurgence of the run game as well. This has been especially important given that the Vikings have trailed for less than 4 minutes all season and have thus needed a more balanced run vs. pass ratio than they have used in previous seasons under O’Connell.
At age 29, Aaron Jones is an old man by the standards of an NFL running back. So far this season, he has shown that he still has the skill and explosiveness to be a top NFL ball carrier. However, it remains to be seen if he can maintain his current form over the course of the long, grueling NFL season.
Jones left Sunday’s game against the Jets early with a hip injury, and (like many NFL players) he has dealt with injuries for his entire career. Keeping him on the field and healthy will be crucial for the success of the 2024 Vikings, no matter what the RB haters might say.
Financially, The Vikings Can Pull Off a Trade