Matchups to Watch in Week 13: A Scrambling QB and a Dynamic Rookie
The Vikings closed their tough stretch of three games away from Minnesota. The only reason this stretch was tough and not brutal is the quality of the opponents. Still, winning on the road is never easy, and the Vikings going 3-0 is a testament to how well-coached this team is. The attention now goes to their matchup against the Arizona Cardinals, kicking off a sequence of three home games.
A win on Sunday would virtually guarantee a playoff spot for the Vikings, taking some pressure off the team. It may have looked like an easy game in late September, but now it doesn’t anymore. Before losing to the Seahawks in Seattle, the Cardinals were on a four-game win streak, surpassing 350 yards and 28 points in three of those games. Their defense was also very good, holding opposing QBs to under 230 in their last four games, and no team has scored more than 17 points against them since late October.
The Cardinals’ offense will be looking to bounce back from a bad performance against the Seahawks. They scored only six points, went 3/12 on third downs, and Kyler Murray was sacked five times.
This game is full of exciting matchups, especially on one side of the ball.
Blake Cashman and Josh Metellus vs. Trey McBride
The Vikings had some trouble covering Cole Kmet last week, with the TE catching seven passes for 64 yards. Trey McBride, the Cardinals’ TE, had a huge game against the Seahawks, with 12 catches for 133 yards.
The third-year tight end is following a very good 2023 with an even better 2024, solidifying himself as one of the better young tight ends in the league. With the connection Murray has with him and his ability to make plays, McBride is a player the defense must keep an eye on at all times.
Vikings’ Secondary vs. Marvin Harrison Jr.
Although he is not producing monstrous numbers every week like some expected, Harrison Jr. is still having a good rookie season. The son of a Hall of Famer, the 4th overall pick in April, is on pace to finish the year with 56 catches, 843 yards, and nine touchdowns. It’s not an All-Pro caliber season, but not every rookie will register Justin Jefferson-type numbers.
If you turn on the tape, it’s easy to see that defenses already respect Harrison a lot, with his double-team rate going up almost every week. The Vikings’ secondary suffered against Keenan Allen and D.J. Moore last week (especially Allen). The Cardinals’ receiver group isn’t as talented as the Bears’ one, so they can cheat toward Harrison Jr. a little more.
Vikings’ Defensive Line vs. Kyler Murray
Murray was sacked five times against the Seahawks, but this was an odd week for the Cardinals offensive line. Their O-line ranks as one of the best pass-blocking units in pure pass plays (no play-action or RPO), and Murray was sacked only 20 times this season, 5th-best amongst QBs with at least ten starts.
The Vikings have one of the best pass-rushing groups in the league, ranking 4th in sacks and 1st in both hurries and pressures. They only managed to sack Caleb Williams twice, but this number could have been higher. Murray is one of the best scrambling QBs and it’s very hard to bring him down, so if/when given a chance, Greenard and Van Ginkel must bring him down.
Keeping Murray in the pocket is also a must, given his talent to produce yards with his legs. Even though he hasn’t been running a lot recently, he can take off at any given time, adding to the importance of keeping the pocket integrity when rushing him.
Aaron Jones vs. Cardinals’ Defense
The Cardinals have an average defense. This isn’t a shot at them; they are literally ranked 14th-20th in most defensive categories. Their defense is allowing 4.3 yards per carry and 121.8 yards per game. Jones is coming off his second 100-yard game of the season and could break 100 yards in back-to-back games, something he hasn’t done in purple.
Jonathan Gannon’s defense relies a lot on their safeties coming downhill to tackle, as Budda Baker is their leading tackler, and fellow safety Jalen Thompson is third ‒ Baker also leads the team in tackles for loss with eight.
This task would arguably be easier with Josh Oliver in the lineup, but the TE will miss his second straight game due to an ankle injury. Kevin O’Connell switched to 21 personnel last week, using FB C.J. Ham to help on run plays. WR Trent Sherfield, known for his prowess in run blocking, also saw an uptick in snaps since the Colts game in Week 9.
If the Vikings can climb to the second level, Aaron Jones can make defenses pay for focusing so much attention on Justin Jefferson, which would only help #18 and the rest of the offense.
The statistics mentioned can be found at PFF and Pro Football Reference.
Final Prediction: Cardinals 21, at Vikings, 28.
ARI at MIN: The Vikings Get a Shot at a Second 5-Game Win Streak
