Matchups to Watch in Week 12 ‒ Who’s The Better Defense?
After last week’s win against the Titans, the Minnesota Vikings have already won more games in 2024 than in 2023. Of course, injuries played a huge part in last season’s outcome. Still, it’s remarkable how Kevin O’Connell, Kwesi Adofo-Mensah, Brian Flores, and the rest of the organization turned things around. Now they go on to their next NFC North matchup, this time against the Bears.
The Chicago Bears were the winners in what is arguably the worst trade in NFL history ‒ or best if you’re a Bears fan. Besides landing a great WR in D.J. Moore, they also ended up with one of the most highly-touted QB prospects of the century. When it was determined that the first overall pick was going to the Bears, analysts and fans alike started debating if this was the best environment for a first overall QB in history.
With a great defense, D.J. Moore, Cole Kmet, and the additions of Keenan Allen, D’Andre Swift, and Rome Odunze, the expectation was that Caleb Williams would come in and have the league in his hands. The reality is that most of us overlooked two major things: the offensive line and the coaching staff.
A big part of the fanbase wanted Matt Eberflus to be fired at the end of 2023, but GM Ryan Poles and the ownership decided to give him another chance. At a somewhat disappointing 4-6 and the possibility of not only losing every game in a three-week at-home sequence but losing badly to the Patriots and what would be two rivalry games, it’d be hard to defend keeping the head coach.
We start this week’s matchups with the coaching staff.
Brian Flores vs. Thomas Brown and Caleb Williams
As I always like to say, Flores is one of the biggest evil geniuses in the NFL right now. The way he schemes up things to create chaos is impressive. Most of all, he makes offenses play in the way he wants. A very big play aside, this defense gave up next to nothing in the last three games, took the ball over six times, and sacked the QB 11 times. You can try to downplay it by saying that it was against the three bad AFC South teams, and two were matchups against backup QBs, but it was still an impressive bounce-back.
Thomas Brown became the offensive coordinator last week after Shane Waldrom got fired. The offense indeed improved against the Packers, although the bar wasn’t particularly high. The 19 points scored were the most since their bye week, and the 391 yards on offense were the 3rd-best of the season.
You can make a case that this was their best offensive performance, considering that the other games they finished with more points were against the Titans (the offense scored 17), a very injured Rams, the Panthers, and the Jaguars.
Caleb Williams has shown flashes of the QB many hoped he’d be but he’s still inconsistent ‒ which is totally normal for a rookie. He still has to reach double-digit touchdown passes, and his touchdown percentage is second worst amongst QBs with 250+ attempts. He also has one of the worst yards per attempt and per completion numbers in the league.
No quarterback has been sacked more times than Williams, and, at this pace, he’ll end up as the third-most sacked QB ever. The Bears are already down to their third-string left guard, and they play the only team with three players with seven or more sacks. LB Blake Cashman recorded another sack last week, and Ivan Pace is always a big threat as a blitzer. DT Jerry Tillery has gotten close to his first sack of the season a couple of times now, and maybe this is the week he finally gets it.
Williams is also blitzed a lot, and Flores calls blitzes at the highest rate in the NFL. The QB was more willing to scramble for yards last week so it’ll be interesting to see how the Vikings play him on Sunday.
Kevin O’Connell and Sam Darnold vs. Matt Eberflus
If you look at how each team plays, the Vikings and the Bears share some similarities. These are two teams that rely on their defense a lot and, at times, have inconsistent offenses with shaky offensive line play, especially in the interior. The three biggest differences are the coaching staff, Justin Jefferson, and QB play.
Kevin O’Connell is making a very compelling case to win Coach of the Year, leading this team to an 8-2 record when many predicted the Vikings wouldn’t surpass five wins all season. But even more than that, he is transforming the careers of players like Sam Darnold.
When the team signed Darnold to a one-year, $10 million contract, it became obvious that the Vikings would do everything possible to come out of the draft with their quarterback of the future and that it would be the best situation of Darnold’s career. With one of the best playmaking groups in the NFL, including but not limited to the best wide receiver on the planet, and a head coach known for making life easy on the QB, it was clear that Darnold would have a chance to revitalize his career.
Darnold is doing just that, having by far his best season in the league. He is still prone to make a few bad decisions per game, throwing ten interceptions already. However, he is also showing that, with the right environment around, he can be an effective quarterback. It doesn’t have to be perfect, as the Vikings are allowing a sack in almost 9% of his dropbacks.
As I said, the Bears have a good defense, but there are holes that O’Connell can exploit. First of all, their run defense isn’t good, with their 4.8 yards allowed per carry, which is the 5th worst in the league. Although they are one of the best units in pressure percentage, they are only 15th in sacks.
However, they also have a very strong secondary, with CBs Jaylon Johnson and Tyrique Stevenson leading the charge. The Bears are tied with the Lions for the fewest passing touchdowns allowed (7), and Sam Darnold is 5th for touchdown passes (19), but 11 of those passes came in the first four games. Johnson recently said that Darnold “hasn’t been consistent. He started out hot… He’s had a lot of turnovers lately.” Darnold seems like a very chill guy, but perhaps this will add a little fuel to his performance on Sunday.
The statistics mentioned can be found at PFF and Pro Football Reference.
Final Prediction: Vikings 13, at Bears, 9.
