Matchups to Watch in Week 10 ‒ The Ghost of Backup QBs and a Revenge Game
Vikings fans are nothing if not traumatized. We have very good reason to be, as a quick glimpse at the team’s history will show. A few of the traumas are perfectly justified, especially with kickers. A few other ones, not so much. One of these traumas is when there’s a matchup against a backup quarterback.
During the Zimmer era, there was always the feeling that backup QBs would torch the defense, and fans would be left stunned as the Vikings would lose a theoretically easier game. However, most of the games happened during his last years as the team’s head coach, when the defense was only a shell of what it was. In 2022, the first year with Kevin O’Connell as HC and when Ed Donatell was the DC, Teddy Bridgewater and Mike White posted 300+ yard games as backups. But that defense was also terrible.
Last year, the defense was exposed against Jake Browning and the Bengals, but again, it wasn’t a good defense. Flores’s scheme made them play better than they were, but the personnel wasn’t very good. There’s a point coming soon, I promise.
However, we’re going to talk about other matchups before.
Vikings’ Passing Game vs. Jaguars’ Secondary
There’s only one defense allowing more yards through the air than the Jaguars, and we saw Thursday night how bad they are (Ravens). The Jaguars’ front office has tried to the secondary in recent years, drafting a total of 12 defensive backs since 2020, with four being selected in the first three rounds, but it hasn’t paid dividends.
Tyson Campbell isn’t a bad cornerback, but he has played in only four games this season. In his absence, Ronald Darby, Jarrian Jones, Montaric Brown, and De’Antre Prince have given up a combined 1,011 yards. Three wide receivers have posted 100+ yard games against this secondary (Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and Nico Collins) and you can absolutely say this number isn’t higher because teams were beating the Jaguars so bad that they started to chew clock early.
Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison are coming off their arguably best game of the season and with T.J. Hockenson getting back to his usual self, opportunities will appear for Sam Darnold and this offense to have a great game in Jacksonville.
Vikings’ Pass Rush vs. Jaguars’ Offensive Line
A couple of weeks ago, I came here and said that the Vikings would face a banged-up offensive line and that they could and should feast on that. Then they pressured Matt Stafford in only 11% of his dropbacks. Am I afraid of saying again that they should dominate a bad offensive line? Of course, I just talked about being traumatized by things that don’t make sense.
So yes, I will again say that the Vikings have, on paper, a lopsided matchup in their favor and must take advantage of that. Ezra Cleveland, who was playing best in the offensive line, is out. Brandon Scherff, who once was an elite guard for Washington, has declined, and RT Anton Harrison is credited for allowing 20 pressures this season.
If LB Blake Cashman is good to play, Andrew Van Ginkel can go back to focus on getting after opposing QBs. Even if Van Ginkel has to play more in coverage in case Cashman is out or if he’s on a snap count, Jonathan Greenard is applying more pressure than any other pass rusher, and rookie Dallas Turner is coming off a very good game, even if the box score won’t show it.
Cam Robinson vs. Josh Hines-Allen
Not long ago, it was rare to see mid-season trades. However, recently, teams have been more willing to trade assets to improve their teams before the trade deadline. Kwesi Adofo-Mensah did it again, trading for LT Cam Robinson after Christian Darrisaw went down.
This marked a revenge game that no one was expecting, with Robinson facing the team he played for seven-and-a-half years just ten days after getting traded from the Jaguars. It’s a good thing that Kwesi was able to get Robinson, or Josh-Hines-Allen could wreck the game by himself.
Although the Jaguars pass-rusher isn’t on pace to duplicate his 17.5 sacks from last season, he should finish with 10.0+ sacks in back-to-back years for the first time in his career and is coming off a two-sack performance against the Eagles.
Hines-Allen isn’t the only one able to apply pressure, with 2022 first-overall pick Travon Walker looking more like a player worthy of being selected at such a premium spot (they still should have selected Aidan Hutchinson, though).
Vikings vs. A Backup QB
We’re finally back to the backup QB conversation. As I said, part of the fanbase has an irrational fear of facing backup signal-callers. I even bet that, if given the chance, some would choose to play against Joe Burrow rather than Jake Browning.
My point is that games against backup QBs are wildly unpredictable. Last year, the Vikings came very close to beating a Lions team that reached the NFC Championship Game, and if a couple of bounces had gone the other way, the Vikings would have made the playoffs with a combination of Joshua Dobbs, Jaren Hall, and Nick Mullens throwing the ball.
Backup quarterbacks usually are less afraid to throw risky passes (the famous turnover-worthy plays) because it is not like they have anything to lose. If they are afraid, they will usually check the ball down a lot, missing open receivers downfield and giving the ball to running backs and tight ends even if they are short of the sticks. If they had a good balance between checking it down and making a deep throw to take the top off a defense, they would most likely be starters, not backups.
Mac Jones, the Jaguars’ QB2 who is in line to start, had a very solid rookie season that made him fight for the Offensive Rookie of The Year award, which he lost to WR Ja’Marr Chase. Although he was very efficient in his first year, he was never going to be the QB slinging it down the field, relying more on short-to-intermediate passes with opportunities to generate yards after the catch.
Even though you can build an offense based around that, you’ll either have to have elite play-calling and weapons and a QB that can make the scheme come alive, like the 49ers, or defenses will quickly shut you down, which is what happened to Jones in New England.
Every metric based on yards per throw got worse after Jones’s rookie season, culminating in a horrible 6.1 yards per attempt in 2023 (he would be ahead only of Bo Nix, Bryce Young, and the Browns QBs) and an average depth of target of 6.9 yards.
Jones is smart enough to run an offense in the NFL, but it’s unlikely that he’ll be able to dissect Flores’ complicated scheme. He also lacks the athleticism to make plays when the pocket eventually breaks down or an elite ability to maneuver the pocket like Matt Stafford.
The statistics mentioned can be found at PFF and Pro Football Reference.
Final Prediction: Vikings 31, at Jaguars, 9.
