Matchups to Watch in Week 11 ‒ Turnover Woes and a Vaunted Secondary
Dadá Maravilha, a famous Brazilian soccer player, once said that an “ugly goal doesn’t exist; ugly is not scoring.” Although I doubt anyone reading this has ever heard this, it is true. It doesn’t matter how you score, what matters is getting points. That’s exactly what the Minnesota Vikings did in their matchup against the Jaguars, winning without scoring a touchdown.
The final score and Sam Darnold’s three interceptions will make people think the Vikings played a bad game, but that’s not true. The offense had 28 first downs, 82 plays on offense, over 400 yards, and had the ball for more than 40 minutes. The defense held the Jaguars to just 143 yards and 43 plays while forcing three turnovers. Kevin O’Connell had the same amount of run plays as the Jaguars had of snaps on offense.
The Vikings’ offense moved the ball at will. The Jaguars clearly focused on stopping Justin Jefferson with double and triple-teams all game long, and, to their credit, JJ finished the game with five catches for 48 yards. Kevin O’Connell took advantage of the amount of two-high defenses and called a ton of runs, which led to the team having their best game in rushing yards gained, with 169. The tight ends also had a lovely day, with T.J. Hockenson (8 catches, 72 yards) and Josh Oliver (4 catches, 52 yards) combining for half of the total passing yards.
There was some discussion this week about whether “teams had found how to defend Justin Jefferson and the Vikings’ offense,” but nothing was discovered last game. The only reason the Vikings didn’t win by three or more scores is the three interceptions. If not for that, the Jaguars would have to decide between getting torched by the other playmakers or taking defenders off Jefferson to focus on other players. Even though Darnold leads the league in turnovers, basing your defensive strategy on the QB throwing interceptions isn’t a sound plan.
Turning the attention to the next matchup against the Tennessee Titans, the Vikings have another game against a very bad team record-wise that may provide challenges that may surprise a couple of fans.
Vikings’ Secondary vs. Calvin Ridley
As of now, Ridley runs a one-man show in the Titans’ WR room. He leads the team with 32 catches for 483 yards. He has double the number of targets than Tyler Boyd, the second-most targeted receiver, and more than double the amount of yards. Ridley himself is not having a perfect season, as he’s on pace to have one of his worst seasons. This has to do with a lot of things, including his regression, offensive scheme, and quarterback play.
Still, he is the biggest threat on that side of the ball, and the cornerbacks will have to keep an eye on him all the time. Byron Murphy recorded an interception for the third straight game, Shaq Griffin is having a solid season, and Stephon Gilmore ‒ although with a couple of bad games already ‒ is holding his own for a 34-year-old corner.
Advantage In The Trenches
It is rare for the Vikings to have an advantage on both sides of the trenches, but, at least on paper, they will have one on Sunday. The Titans are bottom-six in sacks, pressure percentage, and QB knockdowns. The Vikings’ offensive line has allowed 26 sacks, but most of them came from the interior. This is where Jeffery Simmons plays, and he is an outstanding football player, but similar to Ridley, he has been generating pressure almost on his own. Harold Landry and Arden Key are pressuring the QBs on the edges, but the Vikings have the offensive tackles to block them.
On the other side, Will Levis has been sacked 22 times in just six games. If he hadn’t missed three games with an injury, he’d be on pace to go down 33 times, which would be tied for third-most in the league. Against a Vikings defense that leads the league in pressures and with a young QB in Will Levis against the crazy scheme that Brian Flores operates, Jonathan Greenard and Andrew Van Ginkel should improve their sack numbers.
Vikings vs. Turnovers
As I said, the Vikings moved the ball as they pleased against the Jaguars but only had 12 points to show for it. The same happened against the Colts, with the Vikings dominating in yards and time of possession but scoring fewer points than they should. This is because of the high number of turnovers in the last two weeks.
The Vikings had six turnovers in the last two games, all of them by Sam Darnold. You can make a case that the fumble against the Colts should’ve been nullified by roughing the passer, and on one of his interceptions last week, the ball hit the ground. Still, he’s putting the ball in harm’s way a lot recently. He did a better job protecting the ball early in the season, but two weeks in a row, the quarterback starts a press conference saying that he needs to take better care of the ball. Hopefully, he doesn’t make it three times.
Also, four of these turnovers happened deep inside the opponent’s territory. Part of this is good because it doesn’t guarantee points to the other team (only ten points after turnovers, and the touchdown was a defensive one). The bad part is that he took points off the board when the Vikings were in a good spot to score. If Darnold can take care of the ball, this is a matchup that the Vikings should win with ease.
Justin Jefferson vs. Titans’ Secondary
The Jaguars sacrificed everything to stop Justin Jefferson. As discussed before, they sacrificed allowing space underneath for the TEs and RBs, and the Vikings capitalized on this. The Titans have the best secondary in the league in terms of yards allowed and are 4th in net yards per pass. They’ve also faced the second-fewest number of passes, which may contribute to the low number of total yards.
Still, only Josh Allen has passed for 300+ yards against them. Prime off-season acquisition L’Jarius Sneed played in only five games and hasn’t played since October 13th (he’s also out Sunday). In his absence, players like Roger McCreary, Darrell Baker, and Jarvis Brownlee have stepped up.
It will be seen if they apply the same strategy as the Jaguars, keeping at least two defenders on Jefferson almost all the time and hoping Kenneth Murray, Harold Landry, Mike Brown, and Amani Hooker can do better covering underneath.
The statistics mentioned can be found at PFF and Pro Football Reference.
Final Prediction: Vikings 27, at Colts, 7.
MIN at TEN: Finishing Off a Third-Straight AFC South Game with an 8-2 Record