Matchups to Watch in Week 1: Battle in the Trenches and a Dynamic Rookie
Finally, the season is here. The Vikings will play meaningful games. If the season opener is any indicator, the 2024 NFL season will be spectacular, with the Chiefs beating the Ravens by one inch.
The idea is that I will analyze a couple of matchups every week before Vikings games. It can be how a defense will adjust to Justin Jefferson, how O’Connell/Flores’s mental chess battle with the opposing team will go, or how the Vikings’ secondary will fare. Spoiler alert in the title, the trenches will affect this game a lot, like it did in the 2022 Wild Card game.
Winning in the Trenches is Key
To those who don’t remember, that playoff game was a slugfest. Wink Martindale, then the Giants’ defensive coordinator, blitzed like a madman ‒ as Flores does. Kirk Cousins was pressured all game long, and the running game was nowhere to be seen. On the flip side, even with the Vikings’ players sacking Daniel Jones three times, the defense had a combined six pressures against 13 from the Giants. Saquon Barkley and Daniel Jones torched them on the ground, combining for 131 yards and two touchdowns.
However, this upcoming game will probably look a lot different. First of all, Martindale is no longer the defensive coordinator, being replaced by Shane Bowen. Bowen’s defense in Tennesee was far away from Martindale’s in terms of blitz percentage, calling it 22.0% of the time against 45.4% of his predecessor, per Pro Football Reference.
He may not have to blitz almost every play to pressure Sam Darnold, though. Dexter Lawrence, maybe the second-best defensive tackle in the league now, Kayvon Thibodeaux, the 5th overall pick in the 2022 draft, and newcomer Brian Burns have the potential to be the best defensive line in the NFL. We’ve seen in the past how Darnold plays when he’s feeling the pressure, so how O’Connell schemes his way around those three will be really important. Christian Darrisaw, Brian O’Neill, and the interior guys against this trio will be a crucial matchup.
The running game can help slow down the G-men, keeping the Vikings’ offense ahead of the chains. Kevin O’Connell is still trying to improve the running game after two lackluster years. He hopes that getting a player of Aaron Jones’ caliber will help, just like promoting Blake Brandel to starting left guard. If you know nothing about Brandel, know that he’s a massive human being, measuring 6’7 and 315 lbs. A couple of tweaks in how the Vikings block for the run can be in the cards as well.
Malik Nabers Will Be Good
Wide receiver looks like the “easiest” position to do the transition from college to the NFL. Malik Nabers can be the next pass-catcher to be an immediate star. Yes, he is a rookie and still has to prove himself in the league, but if his LSU tape indicates something, he will be a pain in the rear end on Sundays.
He is already WR1 on the Giants depth chart, and head coach Brian Daboll should try to get him going early on. The Vikings did a solid job in improving the CB room throughout training camp. With Mekhi Blackmon lost for the year with a torn ACL, the team signed veterans Stephon Gilmore and Fabian Moreau. None of those names inspire a lot of trust, but all of the starters are veterans. It remains to be seen if Flores will have Gilmore follow Nabers around or if the rookie will face different matchups.
One solution for the Vikings’ defense is doing what the Giants did in 2022. Justin Jefferson finished that game with seven catches and only 47 yards. Cousins was so constantly pressured that he couldn’t find JJ down the field. With a play-caller who loves exotic looks and blitzes like his life depended on it, plus what should be an improved pass rush, the defense can stop the pass before it happens. Daniel Jones isn’t the best of QBs, so confusing him can be key in winning the game.
This game feels like an even matchup, so anything can tip the balance one way or the other. How Sam Darnold plays could be the ultimate factor not only in the game but in the season. If he is the Jets Darnold, it will be a rough 2024 season. If he is the Darnold that O’Connell praised all year long, this can be a team that fights for a playoff spot.
Final prediction: Minnesota Vikings, 21 at New York Giants, 10
