Fear Not, This Vikings Season Isn’t Like 2016
There are a couple of similarities between 2024 and 2016. The most obvious one is that the Vikings started 5-0 in both of them and had a bye in Week 6. The first five opponents are also similar, facing the Super Bowl runner-up (49ers and Panthers, respectively), the Packers, Giants, and Texans. Besides the record and opponents, a couple of storylines are shared between the two seasons.
A third-year head coach is trying to win his first playoff game after a disappointing wildcard exit in seasons prior, the young franchise QB hurt his knee in training camp and will miss the season, the Vikings employ a quarterback trying to revive his career (and both are called Sam), and one of the most respected players on the roster is playing what looks like his final season (Harrison Smith and Chad Greenway).
All of this, combined with the disbelief that things can be good for Vikings’ fans and that it’s not because seasons share similar storylines and/or stats that they will be the same, lead some parts of the fanbase to think that this season will also go down in flames.
But, just like they are similar, they are also quite different.
Why Are They Similar?
Besides the reasons mentioned above, the biggest common ground between the two seasons is the defensive performance. The 2024 unit is performing a lot like 2016, and a couple of statistics show that. 3rd down efficiency (~32%), red zone efficiency (~53%), drives ending in scores (~21%), drives ending in turnovers (~21%), points per drive allowed (~1.15), and sacks (18.0-19.0). But stats don’t get you the whole picture.
Both defenses are stifling and, when needed, bailed the offense out. We just saw this happening in Week 5 against the Jets, with the unit intercepting Aaron Rodgers three times and returning one for six points. They did it a couple of times in 2016, but the most dominant one was against the Titans when the offense managed to score only four field goals in a 25-16 win.
That 2016 defense eventually evolved into that historic 2017 defense, when the unit allowed only a 25.3% 3rd down conversion rate.
A World between the Two Seasons
The easiest difference lies in the head coach position. Not only are they different people, their coaching styles couldn’t be more different. Zimmer was the no-nonsense, old-school, tough-as-nails coach, while O’Connell is part of a young generation that believes that the best way to bring the best out of the players is to empower them.
One aspect that no one will know how it will impact this season until February is the injury bug. The 2024 Vikings had to play a couple of games without key contributors (i.e., Jordan Addison and Ivan Pace), and they are still without T.J. Hockenson. However, 2016 was hit hard.
Football Outsiders have a metric to measure how injuries affect teams, similar to the one used in baseball. According to this metric, the Vikings were the third-most affected team in the league in 2016, and the offense was the most affected team between 2000 and 2016. The offensive line was by far the most unlucky one, losing four starters. In fact, after Matt Kalil was down after just two games, his replacement ‒ Jake Long ‒ was hurt after just four games.
This helps to explain the other biggest difference between 2024 and 2016 ‒ offense. It is very hard to do anything with the ball when your offensive line is outright bad or was that injured. Although it may help explain a couple of things ‒ like a putrid run game ‒ it was far from being the only problem.
Of course, having Justin Jefferson will always help your offense, but two stats show the difference between the two Sams: Turnover percentage and yards per attempt.
Throughout five games in 2016, the Vikings had one turnover ‒ and it happened on defense. Andrew Sendejo fumbled while returning a fumble, and that was the only turnover before the bye week. Sam Bradford ended the season with only five interceptions and broke the completion percentage record, but he did so in a very conservative style of play, with only 7.0 yards per attempt and 9.5 yards per completion. This ranked 19th and 30th in the league that season, respectively.
Sam Darnold, on the other hand, isn’t afraid of launching it down the field, for better or worse. This means that sometimes he will throw 50 yards down the field to Jefferson for a 97-yard touchdown and be 2nd in touchdown percentage. And it also means that sometimes he will make bad plays; that’s why he’s 6th in the league in interception percentage. His yards per attempt (8.1) and yards per completion (12.8) both rank in the top 5.
The offensive line may not be the best in the league, and it has weak spots, but it’s way better than the 2016 version, and even if Aaron Jones has to miss a game or two, the running game should fare better than the 3.2 yards per carry in 2016. Having Hockenson back in the mix will also open up a lot of things in the passing game.
The defenses are very similar in production but use very different styles. Zimmer was a master of the double-A-gap mug and usually blitzed on third-and-longs or obvious passing situations. Brian Flores blitzes. A lot. He likes to blitz five on first down to help clog rushing lanes, putting opposing offenses in passing downs when he can go deep into his bag and using his best blitz packages.
I know that we, as Vikings fans, usually just wait for the pain to come. But, besides the NFC North (which has now decided to have four good teams), the Vikings have mostly winnable games left on the schedule.
Depending on how healthy the Rams are, how Kirk Cousins’s Atlanta Falcons are playing, and a late-year trip to Seattle, the Vikings could be favorites in every non-divisional game throughout the season. With just two more wins against the NFC North, we could be looking at a 12-14-win season when everything is said and done.
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