Familiar Faces, Drastically Different Teams: How Small Changes Are Shaping a New Vikings-49ers Showdown
It’s been almost 11 months since the Vikings upset the 49ers at U.S. Bank Stadium, giving them their third victory in four games after an 0-3 start. Minnesota, without Justin Jefferson, thrilled the Monday Night Football audience, piling up 452 yards of offense, their second-highest total of the season.
Brian Flores’ defense was just as good, forcing three turnovers and holding the 49ers’ ground game to 3.0 yards per carry on 22 attempts. The 22-17 victory felt like a turning point in the season and was the first complete game the Vikings had played in 2023.
For two coaching staffs with minimal turnover, the two teams enter Sunday’s rematch at U.S. Bank Stadium looking very different. Sam Darnold has taken over for Kirk Cousins in Minnesota. Jefferson is playing after being sidelined during last year’s matchup. The 49ers placed Christian McCaffrey on injured reserve on Saturday. Deebo Samuel will be on the field after missing last year’s matchup.
The availability of star players isn’t the only change we’ll see. Flores is already showing how much different this year’s defense will be. According to NextGenStats, the Vikings blitzed on 48.8% of dropbacks in 2023. In Week 1 against Daniel Jones and the Giants, the Vikings only blitzed on 22.4% of dropbacks, the lowest rate since Flores took over as defensive coordinator last year. Kevin O’Connell acknowledged this was partially due to Jones’ running ability, but it’s also a testament to the adaptability of Minnesota’s defense. Despite the low blitz rate, the Vikings still finished with five sacks, tied for the most under Flores.
Minnesota has different personnel on defense this year, too. They revamped all three levels of that side of the ball, giving Flores more versatile pieces to throw more looks at opposing offenses. Last year, no one blitzed more than Flores’ group, but no one dropped eight defenders into coverage more than the Vikings, either. With more talent throughout the defense, expect a more nuanced approach to blitzing and coverage this season.
This uncertainty favors the Vikings in Sunday’s matchup. Although he has 17 games of tape and tendencies from 2023, Flores flipped the script on Sunday. How do the 49ers balance a season’s worth of tape with a fresh tape that seemingly shows a completely different approach? And how do they quickly adapt without their most dangerous playmaker?
During last season’s matchup, Flores kept dialing up the pressure on 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy. The Vikings blitzed on 51.5% of dropbacks and forced Purdy to quickly get rid of the ball. Although Purdy handled the blitz well, completing 14/16 passes for 183 yards and a touchdown, he threw an interception late in the fourth quarter, ending a potential go-ahead drive. Do the Vikings continue to send heavy pressure, or do they dial it back like they did against the Giants?
O’Connell has a chance to make his stamp as one of the game’s best playcallers as well. The Vikings’ offense won’t be sneaking up on the 49ers this time. However, having Jefferson in the lineup changes the entire offense. On Thursday, Jefferson told the media that teams play him “totally different“. Even without Jordan Addison this time around, Jefferson stresses defenses unlike any other receiver.
Just because the Vikings are out a stud receiver doesn’t necessarily spell disaster, either. Addison caught seven passes for 123 yards and two scores last year while Jefferson was sidelined. Extra attention will be paid to Jefferson, but the star receiver also told reporters that the 49ers tend to be consistent with how they handle WR1 across the board.
But the best game plan in the world and scheming Jefferson open only go so far. Darnold has a chance to prove that his strong performance against the Giants was no fluke. He spent the 2023 season as the 49ers’ backup quarterback, and although the Vikings downplayed the importance of his “insider knowledge,” it can’t hurt that Darnold is uniquely familiar with San Francisco.
Darnold’s best friend for this game would be a solid running game. As good as the Vikings’ passing game was in last season’s matchup, their running game left much to be desired. Running backs Alexander Mattison and Cam Akers combined for 70 yards on 18 carries.
That may not have been a death sentence for a quarterback of Kirk Cousins’ caliber, but the Vikings will need more volume and efficiency from their run game to win this time around.
Fortunately, the Vikings’ run game appears to have taken a step in the right direction with the addition of Aaron Jones. The former Packers running back ran 14 times for 94 yards and a touchdown against the Giants, including plus-39 rushing yards over expected.
Jones’ vision, suddenness, and ability to break tackles add an element to the run game that the Vikings haven’t had in several years. If Jones and backup Ty Chandler can replicate their production from Week 1, they will set Darnold up for success through the air.
Teams change year-to-year in the NFL. But the Vikings and 49ers appear uniquely different heading into Sunday’s game less than 11 months after their last matchup. Expect a fun chess match between these two teams in a game that could tell us a lot about how good the Vikings can be moving forward in 2024.
