Buyer Beware: Past Trades to 1st Overall to Pick a QB Offer Plenty of Reason for Pause
In fairness, the final chapter hasn’t been written for most of the quarterbacks included below (though some have retired). Quite possibly, many of them will either keep succeeding or start succeeding, making the lofty draft position more than worth it.
Nevertheless, one wonders about the trades to 1st overall and the tremendous cost that we’ve seen. Is there some buyer’s remorse?
The Vikings are sitting in the No. 11 spot and in need of some quarterback certainty. Kirk Cousins is inching closer to free agency. And while a reunion could take place — even at the 11th hour — the Vikings will be thinking long and hard about snatching a young passer out of the draft.
In fact, there will even be some vigorus internal debate about the merits of trading up to get one of this year’s best prospects.
The Past Trades to 1st Overall for a QB
Go ahead and consider who has been chosen 1st overall since 2010. Most often, a QB gets his name called, but there are only a pair who were picked by a team making the leap up to the top spot. Take a look:
- 2010: Sam Bradford, QB
- 2011: Cam Newton, QB
- 2012: Andrew Luck, QB
- 2013: Eric Fisher, OT
- 2014: Jadeveon Clowney, EDGE
- 2015: Jameis Winston, QB
- 2016: Jared Goff, QB (TRADE)
- 2017: Myles Garrett, EDGE
- 2018: Baker Mayfield, QB
- 2019: Kyler Murray, QB
- 2020: Joe Burrow, QB
- 2021: Trevor Lawrence, QB
- 2022: Travon Walker, EDGE
- 2023: Bryce Young, QB (TRADE)
There are thirteen names included above. Nine belong to a QB, three to an EDGE, and then one to an OT. Notably, none of the quarterbacks chosen in the top spot have won a Super Bowl. Some — Newton, Goff, Burrow — have competed for the Lombardi but have fallen short.
And then we can shrink things down to the pair of quarterbacks who arrived via trade. The Los Angeles Rams made a major move to go get Jared Goff and then the Carolina Panthers made a major move for Bryce Young. Take a look at the cost:
Jared Goff Trade
Tennessee Titans Trade:
- 1st (2016)
- 113th (2016)
- 177th (2016)
Los Angeles Rams Trade:
- 15th (2016)
- 43rd (2016)
- 45th (2016)
- 76th (2016)
- 5th (2017)
- 100th (2017)
Bryce Young Trade
Chicago Bears Trade:
- 1st (2023)
Carolina Panthers Trade:
- 9th (2023)
- 61st (2023)
- 1st (2024)
- 2nd RD (2025)
- D.J. Moore
Almost certainly, the Rams would like the chance to redo the trade up for Mr. Goff. He’s a rock-solid QB who can play well with a brilliant strategist for an OC and ample talent around him but no one is mistaking him for being on par with Patrick Mahomes or even the next cluster of excellent QBs: Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Aaron Rodgers, Justin Herbert, and Jalen Hurts. He’s somewhere in the group of guys like Dak Prescott, Matthew Stafford, Kyler Murray, Brock Purdy, and Kirk Cousins.
And then there’s Young.
As a rookie, Young struggled in a major way. He completed just 59.8% of his passes while averaging a horrendous 5.5 yards per attempt. In the end, that meant going 315/527 on his passes for 2,877 yards, 11 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions. The Panthers dropped down to 2-14 a year after going 7-10; they fired their new head coach, Frank Reich, after starting 1-10. So, there may be some disappointed with how the trade went even if we need to acknowledge that a single season is woefully inadequate for fully measuring whether a trade was worthwhile.
Seeing Kwesi Adofo-Mensah part with a mountain of draft picks to get himself up to 1st overall isn’t entirely impossible though it is very unlikely. The pair of examples from recent NFL history suggests that the move up is far from a guaranteed path toward success.
Oh, and then there’s another stubborn fact: the Chicago Bears own the 1st overall pick. Ryan Poles is sitting pretty as a result of the major haul he demanded from Carolina in 2023. Can lightning strike twice for Mr. Poles as he once again trades away the 1st pick? If so, does Minnesota send over the best deal?
No doubt, trading up for a quarterback is a home-run swing that’s inherently risky. Making solid contact will mean sending the baseball far into the stands but the risk is likely too great for Adofo-Mensah.
If a trade is to occur, look for the Vikings to target No. 3 (Patriots), No. 5 (Chargers), or No. 7 (Titans).
Editor’s Note: Information from Pro Football Reference helped with this piece.
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K. Joudry is the Senior Editor for Vikings Territory and PurplePTSD. He has been covering the Vikings full time since the summer of 2021. He can be found on Twitter and as a co-host for Notes from the North, a humble Vikings podcast.