There Are 2 Dumb Theories about T.J. Hockenson

Acquiring tight end T.J. Hockenson has been perhaps the splashiest move during Kwesi Adofo-Mensah’s tenure as Minnesota’s general manager. When Irv Smith Jr. got hurt just before the trade deadline arrived, many thought adding a tight end could make sense. Indeed, the GM did that, but nobody expected it to be one of the league’s best players at the position.
There Are 2 Dumb Theories about T.J. Hockenson

Since that day, Hockenson has been a fabulous player in Kevin O’Connell’s offense. His presence in the middle of the field has been a pleasure for quarterbacks to work with, and he has made life a lot easier for them and his fellow receivers.
The Vikings handed him a huge contract extension during last year’s training camp. His four-year contract worth $66 million was a humungous payday. Still, his 2023 season proved the Vikings right when he ranked among the elite tight ends in most statistics as a focal point in the offense.

However, some folks anticipate a decline in the future from the former eighth overall pick. Anthony DiBona from Pro Football Network called him a regression candidate. While that is certainly valid because of his devastating knee injury, DiBona named the QB turnover the reason for the decline.
The Minnesota Vikings are seemingly embracing a rebuild following the departure of former starting quarterback Kirk Cousins. Once Cousins went down for the Vikings last season, T.J. Hockenson didn’t have a ton of success.
Hockenson eclipsed the 70-yard receiving mark just once after the veteran QB was injured while surpassing that total three times in Cousins’ eight starts. Now Hockenson will be forced to move on with Sam Darnold and J.J. McCarthy splitting time.
In theory, the idea that a downgrade at quarterback will hurt his numbers makes sense, and the numbers in the article are accurate.
However, they were not entirely selected in good faith. The good news is that those numbers are available, and it’s easy to show them from a different angle.

In the eight games with Cousins, Hockenson was targeted 68 times for 53 receptions, 478 yards, and three touchdowns. Scaled to a 17-game season that would result in 113 catches for 1,016 yards, and six touchdowns. That certainly sounds like a decent stat line, and Cousins liked to throw the tight end’s way.
But so were the other quarterbacks, and here are the objective numbers in the seven contests he played in with Jaren Hall, Joshua Dobbs, and Nick Mullens: 59 targets, 42 catches, 482 yards, and two touchdowns. In a 17-game season, Hockenson would’ve caught 102 passes for 1,171 yards, and five touchdowns. He also reached 50 yards in each of the seven matchups.
So throughout a full season, his catch total drops by 11 without Cousins, and he only catches five instead of six touchdowns, but he registers 155 more yards without the four-time Pro Bowler.

Some context should be added to those numbers. For example, Justin Jefferson missed more time when Hockenson played with the backup QBs, leading to a higher target share. On the flip side, Hockenson left one of those games without Cousins because of his knee injury, and he was banged up with a painful rib injury in others. All in all, it is a small sample size, but the theory that Hockenson needs Cousins can’t be objectively proven right.
The story continues with Mike Payton, a Lions beat writer for AtoZSports. He referred to DiBona’s suggestion of a decline, and his theory was that the Vikings should do what the Lions did: ship Hockenson to another team.
Now if there’s going to be regression, Hockenson is going to eventually start looking like a guy that’s holding up money during a rebuild. That’s when a team might look to move on and free up the cash.
The Lions just made that move with Hockenson. His play began to regress and instead of paying him big money, they moved on and saved the cash and let the Vikings pick up the bill. Detroit wound up with Sam LaPorta and it all worked out. Could the Vikings make the same type of move if there’s a regression?
Mike Payton

That move turned out wonderful for Detroit, mainly because they found gold in last year’s second-rounder Sam LaPorta. He was outstanding from the get-go. The problem with that idea is that only a very select group of tight ends can do what LaPorta and Hockenson do. Finding the next of only a handful of elite tight ends is tricky and, perhaps, unlikely.
The Vikings would get a draft pick in return for Hockenson, but based on his contract, it’s probably not a high one. They would save a lot of cap space going forward, but downgrading the position isn’t really worth that extra cash. Adofo-Mensah has cap space to work with next year and beyond, so finding a $17 million payment for Hockenson shouldn’t be a massive problem. The way the contracts in the NFL work, that salary will look pedestrian in a couple of years.

Hockenson is currently recovering from his torn ACL suffered against the Lions. A controversial (but legal) low hit from his former teammate Kerby Joseph knocked him out of the game and is likely the reason for a missed season opener. The Vikings haven’t released a timeline, but the common expectation is that Hockenson will be unavailable for the first four games, while the team could stash him on the PUP list to have an extra roster spot.
That injury could indeed lead to a decline in 2024, but the Vikings hope the 27-year-old can return to his premier level. Through 26 contests with the Vikings (including the 2022 playoff contest), Hockenson recorded over 1,600 yards. He is signed through 2028, and the organization views him as an integral part of their plans and a big target for J.J. McCarthy. He’s not going anywhere.
Editor’s Note: Information from Over the Cap and Pro Football Reference helped with this article.

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Janik Eckardt is a football fan who likes numbers and stats. The Vikings became his favorite team despite their quarterback at the time, Christian Ponder. He is a walking soccer encyclopedia, loves watching sitcoms, and prefers Classic rock over other genres. Follow him on Twitter if you like the Vikings: @JanikEckardt