2024 Vikings Get the “Achilles Heel” Treatment from ESPN
Unlike most previous teams, the 2024 version of the Minnesota Vikings don’t have any devastating weaknesses. The quarterback is solid (and healthy), the offensive line is doing its job, and the cornerbacks make life hard for WRs, although DK Metcalf and Jaxon Smith-Njigba recently prevailed in contested catch opportunities.
2024 Vikings Get the “Achilles Heel” Treatment from ESPN
But every team has some weakness. For the Vikings, ESPN’s Bill Barnwell pointed the finger at Sam Darnold’s tendency to get sacked too often.
He started by explaining that the advanced metrics don’t share the Darnold MVP sentiment that traditional statistics do. The difference, he says, is that sacks aren’t included.
“The difference is what’s missing from passer rating and yards per attempt: sacks,” Barnwell explained. “Darnold has been very good, but in addition to the occasional rash of interceptions, the one issue he has battled is taking too many sacks. His 8.5% sack rate ranks 30th. The only regulars who have run higher sack rates than Darnold are Jalen Hurts and Caleb Williams.”
Sack numbers are often attributed to the offensive line, but the example of Jalen Hurts behind Philadelphia’s line shows that the quarterbacks deserve just as much blame.
Darnold is a playmaker. He wants to stand in the pocket and fire dots out of pressure or escape the pocket and become a scrambler.
“And while it can be easy to attribute sacks to a struggling offensive line, Darnold has run above-average to unplayable sack rates at different times during his career, including an 11.5% rate in a small sample with the 49ers last season. His career sack rate is 7.7% across a time period when the average quarterback has been sacked 6.1% of the time.”
Barnwell also emphasized that Darnold’s sack rate was higher with Christian Darrisaw on the field than without him.
After 15 games, Darnold is on pace to throw for 4,279 passing yards and 36 touchdowns, but he also ranks 3rd in sacks.
“Those sacks aren’t impossible to overcome, but they’re essentially dream-enders for Minnesota’s offense. When Darnold doesn’t take a sack during a drive, the Vikings score touchdowns 31% of the time. Add even one sack to the mix and Minnesota’s touchdown rate drops below 5%. The Vikings have scored only two touchdowns across 42 possessions with at least one Darnold sack, and they each had weird circumstances.”
Few quarterbacks hold on to the ball as long as Darnold does. One reason is his playmaking mindset, and the other is Kevin O’Connell’s aggressive offense, which features deep shots down the field. While the word is banned from Minnesota’s stadium, throwing the occasional checkdown to gain a couple of yards rather than losing eight via sack might make sense.
Barnwell concluded, “Darnold could improve as he gets regular reps in a good offense for the first time in his career, and indeed, his sack rate has gotten slightly better as the season has progressed. I’d also suggest his style of play inherently leans into trying to create out of structure and extending sequences at times, with both good and bad results.”
At the end of the day, Minnesota benefits from his Joe Burrow-esque playmaking style, but it can also be a drive-killer. However, the Vikings go as far as Darnold can take them. A hot streak in the playoffs can help the club beat anyone.
The ESPN writer also suggested that the Vikings should avoid playing the sack-happy Washington Commanders in the playoffs. The good news is that they won’t be on the docket anytime soon as the likely sixth or seventh seed, while the five-seed Vikings will likely play one of Atlanta, Tampa Bay, or the Los Angeles Rams or clinch a bye week by overtaking the Lions.
Editor’s Note: Information from Pro Football Reference helped with this article.
Janik Eckardt is a football fan who likes numbers and stats. The Vikings became his favorite team despite their quarterback at the time, Christian Ponder. He is a walking soccer encyclopedia, loves watching sitcoms, and prefers Classic rock over other genres. Follow him on Twitter if you like the Vikings: @JanikEckardt