The Vikings’ Super Bowl Odds — Not Just the Playoffs — Are Coming in Pretty High
Truth be told, I think any talk of the Vikings’ Super Bowl chances are a bit premature. Yes, they have just a pair of losses within their tidy 7-2 record, but Minnesota is a team that still needs some work.
Nevertheless, the fine folks over at The New York Times/The Athletic have a predictive model that helps us to see the likelihood of making the postseason, winning the division, earning a 1st-Round bye, and even climbing Mount Lombardi. Is it actually realistic to think that Minnesota could end the curse in the 2024 playoffs?
The Vikings’ Super Bowl Odds
Right off the top, the number: 6%.
To be sure, other teams around the NFL have a better chance of securing the elusive title. At the very top of the list is the Kansas City Chiefs, an undefeated team with a 19% chance of winning their third-straight championship.
Other teams — the Detroit Lions at 17%, Buffalo Bills at 11%, etc. — also have better odds than Minnesota.
Turn back the clock, though, to the offseason. Would anyone have predicted the 7-2 start? After all, there have been wins over quality teams like the Texans, 49ers, and Packers. Losing to the Lions by a measly two points is no joke.
And here’s the even more wild reality: the model on The New York Times/The Athletic actually gives Minnesota the sixth best odds of winning the Super Bowl. Put differently, only five teams have a better chance at winning it all, per the model under consideration. Clearly, there’s some belief in what’s going on in Eagan.
Reasons for skepticism can be found in all kinds of places (and that’s even after excluding the franchise’s torturous history of extravagant losses).
Consider, for instance, the day of work that Sam Darnold put in yesterday. The talented passer tossed 3 interceptions, a number that would almost always sink a team. Thankfully, the Mac Jones Jaguars were on the schedule, but that’s a performance that can’t become normal.
Plus, the defense has shown that it can be exposed. Teams with elite offensive minds/weapons — See: Lions, Detroit — can carve up that zone defense. Indeed, if the pressure isn’t getting home, then the backend of the defense can get in trouble. The corners are solid, not perfect.
Blemishes and misgivings aside, the Vikings’ Super Bowl odds are still reason for some optimism. Having a 6% shot as the season heads into its final half is a nice spot to be, especially since most foresaw plenty of turbulence in 2024.
Simply getting into the playoffs is listed at a 90% chance. Winning the division sees the Vikings with a 20% chance and their shot at a 1st-Round bye comes in at a 12% chance.
Make no mistake: those numbers point toward a team that is massively overachieving. Enjoy the ride.
K. Joudry is the Senior Editor for Vikings Territory and PurplePTSD. He has been covering the Vikings full time since the summer of 2021. He can be found on Twitter, as a co-host for Notes from the North, and as the proprietor at The Vikings Gazette, a humble Vikings Substack.
