The Vikings Have Been Experiencing Wobbly Wins. Why?
Lately, the Vikings have been winning. The victories, though, haven’t been utterly convincing. Rather, they have come after some blunders and miscues.
The wobbly wins count just as much as the convincing ones, so the fine folks who call Minnesota home can’t be too concerned. Safe to say, though, that the five pre-bye games were far more convincing and comforting than the five post-bye games. Why have the games felt kind of lacklustre?
The Vikings & The Wobbly Wins
Start off with the basic facts.
The bye week arrived in Week 6. At the time, Minnesota was mostly cruising, but the Week 4 outcome was a bit of a harbinger of things to come. Minnesota had climbed to a huge lead over the Packers before Jalen Nailor’s dropped punt return, a gaffe that allowed Green Bay to pickup some momentum before ultimately losing a nail biter 31-29. Literary readers will refer to this game as a bit of foreshadowing.
Consider what followed after the bye:
- Week 7: 31-29 Lions Loss
- Week 8: 30-20 Rams Loss
- Week 9: 21-13 Colts Win
- Week 10: 12-7 Jaguars Win
- Week 11: 23-13 Titans Win
Add those results onto the ones from prior to Week 6 and Minnesota finds itself with an excellent 8-2 record. Under normal circumstances, the Vikings would be barrelling toward a division title and in the running for a bye in the playoffs. Instead, they’re most likely to be a Wild Card team since the Lions have morphed into a juggernaut under the leadership of Brad Holmes and Dan Campbell.
Going 3-2 following bye is neither reason for concern nor applause. Under no circumstances were the Vikings going to have an undefeated season, so some losses were inevitable. What about the wins?
At best, the Colts are an average team. The Jaguars and Titans are poor. Escaping those games rather than dominating those games is a major reason why there’s a sense of Minnesota being a touch mediocre within the 8-2 record.
Consider, for instance, what Detroit did last week. The Lions absolutely eviscerated the Jaguars, dismantling Jacksonville by a score of 52-6. Now that is a how a Super Bowl contender takes out a bottom feeder that’s relying on a QB2.
Part of the issue has been the turnovers. Recently, Kevin O’Connell referred to them as being “catastrophic” and it’s hard to argue he’s being hyperbolic. Minnesota is the fifth-worst team in the NFL by turning the ball over 17 times. The saving grace is simply that Brian Flores’ defense has forced 21 — tied for 2nd in the NFL — so Minnesota still has an advantage in this area.
Moreover, Aaron Jones has come back down to earth after a scorching start to the season. Since the bye, Jones has run for 93 yards, 58 yards, 64 yards, 88 yards, and then 39 yards; those games have featured a yards-per-carry average of 6.6, 3.1, 3.0, 5.2, and 2.6.
One also wonders about the contributions from the young players, or lack thereof. There has been tons of optimism for rookie kicker Will Reichard. Part of the reason is because of Minnesota’s horrendous history with kickers; part of the reason is due to so few of the young guys contributing. And, of course, Reichard is now on the IR, so that puts a damper on things.
Jordan Addison has had a slower season. Dallas Turner hasn’t made the impact most expected. The 2022 draft class took another hit when Ed Ingram was benched. Jalen Nailor has been just pretty good. The late-round linemen — Walter Rouse, Michael Jurgens, Levi Drake Rodriguez — have been MIA.
Add it all together and the Vikings have been playing solid but not spectacular football.
Now, that’s a lot of negativity for a team that’s sitting at 8-2. Basically no one had them at that record going into Week 12 when the prophets and prognosticators were forecasting the season, so the overall outlook should be one of optimism. Sam Darnold has been an above-average QB, the weapons are elite, the defensive additions in free agency have been wonderful, and Matt Daniels’ special teams have had a bounce back season.
In an ideal world, the Vikings will get the wobbly wins out of their system at this stage of the year. Get hot at the right time and hit the playoffs with momentum. Doing so could lead to a really fun postseason where Kevin O’Connell’s team positions itself to make some noise.
Editor’s Note: Information from Pro Football Reference helped with this piece.
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K. Joudry is the Senior Editor for Vikings Territory and PurplePTSD. He has been covering the Vikings full time since the summer of 2021. He can be found on Twitter, as a co-host for Notes from the North, and as the proprietor at The Vikings Gazette, a humble Vikings Substack.