How Many Passing Yards are Enough for the Vikings?
Most expect the passing attack to be a bit more modest due to Kirk Cousins’ departure.
In 2023, the Vikings were an elite team for passing yards, at least in terms of quantity. A whopping four quarterbacks took turns being the QB1 last season due to a mixture of poor performance and injury. Oh, and then Justin Jefferson missed seven games. Even still, Kevin O’Connell found a way of getting the Vikings to 5th in the NFL for total passing yards, finishing one spot ahead of the Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs.
The Vikings, The Passing Yards, and the Chance of 2024 Success
The point is not to be the NFL’s best passing offense. The point is to win football games. In that sense, passing the ball is just a means to an end.
O’Connell, the former NFL quarterback, prefers to move the ball through the air. Last season, the Vikings tossed the football 631 times. Running the ball was down at 393 attempts. So, there’s definitely a clear preference.
Part of the problem, of course, is that the Vikings were bad at running the ball in 2023. Does Aaron Jones help?
The hope is that the former Packer can be very productive in The Gopher State. Recently, PFF listed Jones as their bounce-back candidate for the Vikings: “Jones mustered 889 scrimmage yards and three touchdowns last year, primarily because he missed six games with hamstring and knee injuries. At the same time, his numbers after contact and in receiving efficiency were largely on par with the past few years, where he was one of the top backfield weapons in football. Plus, Jones earned four straight games with a grade above 80.0 as the season wound down, presumably as he got healthier.”
In 2023, the Vikings finished at 29th in the NFL with 1,553 rushing yards. The rushing touchdowns were in a tie for last place — 7 TDs on the ground — but the yards-per-carry average was a bit better, coming in at a 4.0 average, tied for 21st.
Even if Jones is great, though, Minnesota seems likely to be a pass-first crew. Their 4,359 passing yards from 2023 were less than 200 yards off the NFL leading Miami Dolphins, a team that finished with 4,514 passing yards.
Keep in mind that Mike McDaniel pushed his team toward that top spot with QB1 Tua Tagovailoa starting all 17 games while WR1 Tyreek Hill was around for 16 games, a far cry from Cousins’ 8 games and Jefferson’s 10 games.
The takeaway is simply that even within the obvious turmoil engulfing the passing attack, the Vikings kept going back to it. However, there were modest results — a 7-10 record that involved missing the playoffs. Do the Vikings find a way of sticking to what they do well while flipping around that record to 10-7?
The Vikings seem very happy living in extremes. Brian Flores doesn’t just blitz, he blitzes at a league-leading rate. So, too, does Kevin O’Connell venture into similar extremes by passing the ball a ton. After all, Minnesota’s 631 passing attempts finished at 4th-most in the NFL last season, just a few attempts away from the Washington Commanders at 636.
Again, though, the main point: passing is simply a means to an end. Score points and win games, that’s the larger objective standing behind the desire to pass the ball effectively. Look for O’Connell to keep leaning on this critical element in his strategy even as the team evolves a bit by leaning more on the run and the defense.
In the end, no fans will be complaining if the passing takes a step back as the wins take a step forward.
Editor’s Note: Information from Pro Football Reference helped with this piece.
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K. Joudry is the Senior Editor for Vikings Territory and PurplePTSD. He has been covering the Vikings full time since the summer of 2021. He can be found on Twitter and as a co-host for Notes from the North, a humble Vikings podcast.