The Journeyman QB and “Draft Bust” Whom Sam Darnold May be Looking to Emulate
K. Joudry
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For some, a strong comparison for Sam Darnold is Baker Mayfield. The current Tampa passer went 1st overall before experiencing a downturn in his career following his departure from Cleveland.
The thinking is that Darnold can mirror Mayfield. After all, both took turns trying to lift the Panthers out of the doldrums of the NFL’s basement before getting the chance to be a co-worker with a QB whisperer. For Mayfield, that was Sean McVay in Los Angeles; for Darnold, that was Kyle Shanahan in San Francisco. Is there something missing from this comparison, though?
The Career Trajectory Sam Darnold May be Looking to Emulate
A prominent example of the theory comes from The NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero.
After the news emerged about Darnold finding employment in Minnesota, Pelissero shared this thought: “The #Vikings had been eyeing Sam Darnold as a fallback for some time in the event Kirk Cousins left. Could the former No. 3 overall pick be this year’s Baker Mayfield? Or is Darnold a bridge to a rookie? Minnesota owns the No. 11 overall pick.”
Not too long ago, Dustin Baker explored a similar idea on Vikings Territory.
Baker’s explanation: “Darnold was signed for a reason, and for better or worse, he will patch over the rookie quarterback in 2024. Some believe Darnold might even take off inside Minnesota’s system and conduct his own Baker Mayfield story this season.”
For the most part, the comparison makes sense. There’s one issue, though: by the time he provided rock-solid play for the Buccaneers, Mayfield already had a track record of playing strong football. In fact, Mayfield had led the Browns – don’t miss that point: the Browns — on a mini playoff run. The 2020 season involved Mayfield leading his squad to an 11-5 record while completing 62.8% of his passes for 3,563 yards, 26 TDs, and 8 INTs.
Darnold, in contrast, doesn’t have much success on his NFL résumé.
Now, does that mean that Darnold is doomed to disastrous play? By no means. Seeing him become a true QB1 isn’t impossible, as a recent precedent demonstrates. Namely, the career resurgence from Seattle’s Geno Smith.
Like Darnold, Smith struggled as a Jet. After getting picked 39th in 2013, Smith’s rookie season involved going 8-8, but he completed just 55.8% of his passes while tossing 12 TDs against 21 INTs. Not good. And then as a sophomore, New York’s team record dipped down to 3-10 with Smith at the helm. He completed 59.7% of his passes while throwing 13 TDs and 13 INTs.
A bust, right?
Subsequent years featured a lot of backup assignments across the NFL. He stuck around with the Jets for a couple more years before playing for the Giants for a season. He then went on to play for the Chargers before ending up with the Seahawks. Initially, though, Smith was a backup, sitting behind Russell Wilson for a couple of seasons.
In 2022, Smith got a chance to prove himself once again. He started all 17 games while completing 69.8% of his passes (throwing to D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett is a good place to be). And then his TD/INT ratio was a much more impressive 30/11 while he piled up 4,282 passing yards.
No doubt, these are starter numbers. For his efforts, Smith came in at 9th in MVP voting and won the NFL’s Comeback Player of the Year award. He made his first Pro Bowl, too.
The 6’3”, 221-pound Geno Smith is a good reminder that a passer’s career isn’t always easy to predict. Sometimes, a guy blossoms after experiencing failure and after gaining experience at a variety of different spots.
Sam Darnold, who stands at 6’3” and weighs 225 pounds, is the bridge QB in Minnesota. He’ll turn 27 in June, an age that suggests he’s seen some things while nevertheless having quite a bit of youth in tow. Does he get his career off the ground while working under Kevin O’Connell’s tutelage and while tossing the pigskin to Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson?
The Smith example suggests that there’s a glimmer of hope that Darnold overcomes the widespread doubt by turning into a strong NFL starter.
Editor’s Note: Information from Pro Football Reference helped with this piece.
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K. Joudry is the Senior Editor for Vikings Territory and PurplePTSD. He has been covering the Vikings full time since the summer of 2021. He can be found on Twitter and as a co-host for Notes from the North, a humble Vikings podcast.