Is USC QB Caleb Williams Really Worth the Hype Heading into the 2024 NFL Draft?

Josh Frey |

Jan 8, 2024

Nov 11, 2023; Eugene, Oregon, USA; USC Trojans quarterback Caleb Williams (13) walks off the field after a game against the Oregon Ducks at Autzen Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports

With the Vikings’ season coming to an end this past weekend following their loss to the Detroit Lions, it’s time to begin looking ahead at a few potential 2024 NFL Draft prospects for Minnesota.

This year’s Vikings Draft Thermometer series begins at the top, and we will be taking a look at USC QB Caleb Williams. The quarterback began his collegiate career at Oklahoma in 2021, but after Lincoln Riley took the head coaching job at USC prior to the 2022 season, Williams opted to follow him there where he has played for the past two seasons.

Overview

Height: 6’1″
Weight: 215 pounds
Arm Length: TBD
Hand Size: TBD
40-Yard Dash: TBD
School: Oklahoma (2021), USC (2022-23)
Games Watched: Colorado (2023), Notre Dame (2023), Utah (2023), Washington (2023)

Statistics

USC Trojans quarterback Caleb Williams (13) talks with USC Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley during the first half of the game against No. 6 Oregon Ducks on Saturday, Nov. 11, 2023, at Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Ore.

Passing

2021: 136/211 (64.5%), 1912 yards, 21 TDs, 4 INTs (11 games)
2022: 333/500 (66.6%), 4537 yards, 42 TDs, 5 INTs (14 games)
2023: 266/388 (68.6%), 3633 yards, 30 TDs, 5 INTs (12 games)

Rushing

2021: 45 carries, 559 yards (8.7 yards per carry), 6 TDs, 11 fumbles
2022: 58 carries, 624 yards (6.6 yards per carry), 10 TDs, 6 fumbles
2023: 50 carries, 356 yards (4.8 yards per carry), 11 TDs, 16 fumbles

Strengths

Oct 7, 2023; Los Angeles, California, USA; Southern California Trojans quarterback Caleb Williams (13) throws against the Arizona Wildcats during the first half at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

Caleb Williams came into 2023 heralded as the next great quarterback prospect. While USC didn’t quite live up to their hype as a whole this season, that should not take anything away from what Williams himself is capable of.

The USC product has been one of the best improvisers at the quarterback position in all of college football. Williams’ arm talent is absolutely incredible, allowing Williams to make throws from anywhere in the backfield. He can stand in the pocket and hit receivers in stride, or he can scramble outside of the pocket and throw on the run as well as any draft prospect we’ve seen over the past couple years.

It also cannot be understated that Williams came into Oklahoma’s program as a true freshman back in 2021 and immediately began playing some effective football to lead that offense. This bodes well for his abilities translating right away at the next level.

Weaknesses

NCAA Football: Southern California Spring Game — Apr 15, 2023; Los Angeles, CA, USA; USC Trojans quarterback Caleb Williams (13) throws a pass during the Spring Game at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Kiyoshi Mio-USA TODAY Sports

At times, Williams can take the Superman role a little too far. He holds onto the ball a bit too long when he faces pressure, and as a result, he took way more sacks than he should have throughout his collegiate career. During the 2023 season, he was sacked 33 times, which was tied for the 13th-most in all of the FBS, per PFF.

Williams doesn’t throw a ton of interceptions, but he also needs to do a much better job of taking care of the football at the NFL level. He fumbled 33 times during his three-year collegiate career, including a whopping 16 fumbles during 2023 alone. Only Joey Aguilar of Appalachian State put the ball on the ground more often this season (17).

NFL Projection

Nov 11, 2023; Eugene, Oregon, USA; USC Trojans quarterback Caleb Williams (13) scores a touchdown during the first half against the Oregon Ducks at Autzen Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports

Draft Stock: First Overall-Top Five
Immediate Role: QB1, Potential All-Pro
Best-Case Scenario: 2010s Russell Wilson
Worst-Case Scenario: Baker Mayfield
Vikings Draft Thermometer (1-100): 5

Here is the first hot take of 2024 NFL Draft season: drafting Caleb Williams comes with a ton of risk. This is especially so for any team that would trade multiple draft assets to move into the No. 1 overall pick for him. Still, his arm talent and athleticism are off the charts, and he can make every single throw that is asked of him. Williams should be the first QB selected in this year’s draft based on his upside, and hopefully, some of the concerns under pressure can sort themselves out.

As far as the Vikings finding a way to draft Williams, consider it to be a nearly impossible feat. The Chicago Bears hold the No. 1 overall pick in this spring’s draft, and even if they were to trade that selection, there is almost no chance that they would hand a potential franchise QB to their division rivals. Meanwhile, teams like the Washington Commanders and New England Patriots will almost assuredly look to add a QB in the draft with the second and third overall picks.

Editor’s Note: All statistics for this piece were found via Sports Reference CFB and Pro Football Focus.

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Josh Frey is a Class of 2020 graduate of The College of Idaho and managing editor of PurplePTSD.com. When he’s not writing about the NFL, Josh enjoys running, gaming, or rooting for the Milwaukee Brewers and Bucks. Check out his Twitter account: @Freyed_Chicken.