If the Season Slips Away, Keep an Eye on The Vikings’ Abundant Cap Space in 2024
K. Joudry
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A team without hope is a team that’s soon to lose interest from its fans. So much of what Kwesi Adofo-Mensah has been trying to do is to put together a roster that offers yearly hope. Or, put differently, the kind of team that can contend annually, similar to what the San Francisco 49ers have accomplished.
So far, the 2023 season looks to be falling short of that goal. But, of course, we must remember that Adofo-Mensah is only in Year 2 of his (in)famous competitive rebuild. Next year, the Vikings’ abundant cap space is going to play a starring role in the GM’s efforts to push the Vikings toward perpetual contention.
The Vikings’ Abundant Cap Space in 2024 Hovers Above The Current Season
Justin Jefferson is under contract for 2024. Yes, failing to see the extension get done is a misstep, the kind of failure that can cause no shortage of hand wringing. The ongoing best bet, though, is that a monstrous new contract will get done.
The wild thing is that agreeing to a new deal could plausibly give the Vikings more cap space in 2024. Jefferson’s 5th-year option is coming with a cap charge just a touch below $19.75 million. An extension has the potential to shave off close to $15 million off of the total.
Now, I don’t anticipate the GM pushing the 2024 savings to the max, but the point remains: a new Jefferson deal — the one that will cause rejoicing far and wide in the Land of 10,000 Lakes — is likely to give Adofo-Mensah more money to attract talent.
Currently, Over the Cap has the Vikings at a touch below $56 million in cap space for 2024. The Jefferson example, though, underscores an important truth: the roster has all kinds of options when it comes to shaking more money loose.
After all, just a new extension for Jefferson has the potential to push that $56 million beyond $70 million. When’s the last time the Vikings have had so much money to work with? The GM hasn’t been perfect since taking over, but he has been shrewd with how he has managed the budget. His ongoing effort to reshape the roster in his own image is going to reach a climactic moment in 2024.
Maybe the most discouraging part of next year’s budget is that the dead money is very likely to be huge. Danielle Hunter, Kirk Cousins, and Marcus Davenport aren’t under contract for next season. If all three leave for a new team, the Vikings will have to carry a dead money charge a touch beyond $50 million. And, let’s not forget, there’s going to be other sources of dead money through the various cuts and transactions that inevitably arrive.
Seeing the Vikings sail past $60 million in dead money won’t be surprising.
The Vikings can avoid this fate by keeping their talented players. Apart from Davenport, though, the players we’re considering fall outside of the ideal age for the competitively rebuilding Vikings. Adofo-Mensah will need to determine if the 29-year-old Hunter and 35-year-old Cousins could have 2-4 more years of high-level play left in them. If so, does the team get to a number that those two would accept?
Nevertheless, the broader point remains: cap space isn’t going to be as scarce as in past years. Minnesota thus has the potential to be major players within free agency.
Harrison Smith is going to have his jersey number retired in Minnesota but one wonders if he’ll be able to stick around for 2024. With a cap charge sitting above $19.2 million, Smith will need to agree to a new deal to keep finding employment in Eagan. A post-June 1 cut would give the Vikings $15.3 million in added cap room.
Harrison Phillips has proven to be the team’s best defensive lineman, but he can be cut for $6.5 million in added cap space. Expect the Vikings to at least consider that possibility. Dean Lowry may need to accept a pay cut to stick around; Minnesota will be reluctant to hold onto the $4.6 million cap charge in 2024 if the former Packer doesn’t pick up his play.
Another factor that shouldn’t be overlooked is the team’s effort to stockpile plenty of draft picks. With eight selections and possibly a few more before it’s all said and done, the Vikings get the luxury of picking up youthful talent on cost-controlled deals. As a result, there can be a few more luxuries in free agency. The large deals for premier veterans can be offset by the small deals for recent draftees.
The 2023 season isn’t over. If the Vikings pick up a pair of losses in Week 7 and Week 8, though, then the focus will likely shift toward the future. Seeing Kwesi Adofo-Mensah confirm that perspective by selling off some of the team’s best players would function as further confirmation that the goal has officially shifted to 2024 contention.
Sitting on more than $55 million in 2024, the Minnesota Vikings find themselves in a position to get better in a hurry once the current season finishes up.
Editor’s Note: Information from Over the Cap helped with this piece.
K. Joudry is the Senior Editor for Vikings Territory and PurplePTSD. He has been covering the Vikings full time since the summer of 2021. He can be found on Twitter and as a co-host for Notes from the North, a humble Vikings podcast.