The Vikings Are the Unluckiest Team in the NFL, and You’ll Never Guess Who’s the Luckiest

Nov 5, 2023; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Minnesota Vikings head coach Kevin O'Connell on the sideline against the Atlanta Falcons in the second half at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

In 2022, the Minnesota Vikings and their 13-4 record were often discredited because of their extraordinary luck.

Matchups like those against the Buffalo Bills and Indianapolis Colts come to mind where a huge number of the bounces went Minnesota’s way, allowing them to pull off improbable victories. Now, though, that luck has completely flipped. Coming into Week 12, the Vikings now stand as the unluckiest team in football, and it isn’t particularly close.

The Vikings Are the Unluckiest Team in the NFL

Nov 19, 2023; Denver, Colorado, USA; Minnesota Viking quarterback Joshua Dobbs (15) drops back to pass against the Denver Broncos in the first half at Empower Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

Tom Bliss is a data scientist for the NFL, and every year, he puts together the win probability added for each team via luck. This statistic comes about by adding up dropped interceptions and passes by opponents, field goals and extra points attempted by opponents, and fumble recoveries by either team. The results of these plays are added up to determine how likely or unlikely teams are to win because of them.

Based on this stat through Week 11, the Vikings are not only the unluckiest team at -195.7%, but they are nearly twice as unlikely as every other team in the league. The Chicago Bears are the next unluckiest team at -100.2%.

NFL: Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers
Oct 29, 2023; Green Bay, Wisconsin, USA; Minnesota Vikings cornerback Akayleb Evans (21) tackles Green Bay Packers running back Aaron Jones (33) during their football game at Lambeau Field. Mandatory Credit: Wm. Glasheen-USA TODAY Sports

Take a look at the full list of teams:

Making matters worse for the Vikings and their fanbase, you’ll notice that not only are the Vikings the most unlucky team in the league, but the hated Green Bay Packers are the luckiest. It’s a bit humorous, though, that even with all their luck, the Packers still only sat with a 4-6 record heading into the Thanksgiving weekend.

Unluckiest team
Nov 12, 2023; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Vikings cornerback Mekhi Blackmon (5) intercepts a pass from New Orleans Saints quarterback Jameis Winston (not pictured) in front of wide receiver Chris Olave (12) during the fourth quarter at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

Regardless, this statistic is yet another credit to the Vikings resiliency during the 2023 season. Even with seemingly every bounce going against them this season, Minnesota sits at 6-5, and they hold a strong spot in the playoffs.

Maybe things will start bouncing Minnesota’s way against the Bears this Monday night.

Josh Frey is a Class of 2020 graduate of The College of Idaho and managing editor of When he’s not writing about the NFL, Josh enjoys running, gaming, or rooting for the Milwaukee Brewers and Bucks. Check out his Twitter account: @Freyed_Chicken.