The Trade Up Allure & Trey Lance Mystery
K. Joudry
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Do the San Francisco 49ers regret aggressively moving up to select Trey Lance?
Kyle Shanahan’s squad is among the foremost contenders in the NFC. The defense is loaded and their offense boasts dynamic, versatile weapons like Deebo Samuel, Christian McCaffrey, Kyle Juszczyk, and George Kittle. Like Minnesota, they pieced together a 13-4 record in 2022. More impressively, they did so by averaging 26.5 points per game (6th in the NFL) and 16.3 points against (1st in the NFL).
The only lingering uncertainty rests in what they’ll do at quarterback.
Trey Lance and The Mysterious Trade Possibility
There is plenty of chatter about Brock Purdy – a 7th-round selection in 2022 – reclaiming the QB1 job after shining last year. Several injuries opened the door for the rookie late-rounder (262nd overall!). Depending on his injury recovery, Purdy could be the starter in 2023 and beyond, thus putting Lance’s future in doubt.
Let’s not forget that Lance was the 3rd pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, which now feels like an eternity ago. San Francisco gave up their 2021 1st (12th overall), 2022 1st (29th overall), 2022 3rd (102nd overall), and 2023 1st (29th overall) to secure Mr. Lance’s services.
In a couple seasons, Trey Lance has gotten in on 8 games, starting 4. He has a 2-2 win/loss record and has completed just 54.9% of his passes, a notable number given Shanahan’s brilliance when it comes to scheming his players open. His TD/INT ratio is an uninspiring 5/3 and passed for a hair below 800 yards.
Overall, pretty modest production. Partnering the humdrum numbers with the history of injury raises a legitimate question: will Lance be the long-term answer SF envisioned when making the move for him?
At the time, many believed Shanahan was wisely following in Kansas City’s footsteps. With Alex Smith – the solid vet – still in town, Andy Reid’s squad jumped up to snag Patrick Mahomes. Just six seasons into his career, Mr. Mahomes already has a Hall of Fame resumé that includes 2 SB wins (3 appearances), 2 MVP Awards, 5 Pro Bowls, 2 first-team All Pro Awards, and an Offensive Player of the Year Award (among other distinctions and statistical achievements).
Mahomes will turn 28 in September, so KC may have another decade of dominance from their QB1. Clearly, the approach has merit. Onboarding a young QB to then let him marinate for a year behind a strong veteran with a wizard at head coach can be insanely beneficial.
San Francisco had Jimmy Garappolo when Lance came to town and, of course, Mr. Shanahan as the head coach and offensive architect. Snagging Lance – who was just 20 years old when he was picked – made a lot of sense.
As a result, John Lynch’s recent comments about his QB come across as pretty stunning. When asked about whether he’d trade Lance, Lynch had this to say: “It hasn’t been extremely active, and it’s not like we’ve put it out there that, ‘Hey, we’re taking offers for Trey, call 1-800 to,’ that’s not been the process. It hasn’t been that substantive and we’re focused, as is Trey, on his ability to compete and play an integral role on this team.”
If he wanted to undercut the trade theories, San Francisco’s GM could have instead said this about the rumors and trade inquiries: “Sure, teams have poked around, but let me be clear: we think the world of Trey Lance and he isn’t going anywhere. Just a couple seasons ago, we traded a ton to go get him because we firmly believed he’s our present and future. Nothing that has happened has undermined that belief, and we firmly expect him to bounce back from this injury to be a great starter for us for a long time.”
Instead of offering resounding support, Lynch left the door ajar for interested traders (such as the Vikings, perhaps). Indeed, consider what the general manager had to say about teams calling to acquire Nick Bosa: “That hotline is closed. It never opened.” The contrast is notable, isn’t it?
And, of course, the 49ers are still dealing with the ramifications of the trade to bring Lance to town. Once again, SF doesn’t have an opening round selection. Presumably, they would welcome the chance to add a great young player to further fortify what truly is one of the most intimidating rosters in the NFL.
All of this discussion brings us around to some of the latest purple rumors.
As we all know, Kirk Cousins is entering the final year of his contract in Minnesota, a clear signal Minnesota’s decision makers are at least considering life after #8. Is it wise to trade up?
All the ingredients are present. There is a strong vet to function as a mentor and short-term QB1. There is an offensive head coach who is praised for his innovative style and approach. Making things even more rosy is that Kevin O’Connell actually played QB in the NFL. In theory, he should be among the most uniquely qualified coaches to draft and develop a youngster.
A smashing success means someone like Patrick Mahomes, a once-in-a-generation talent who will likely be remembered as a top 10 QB of all time. But what of Trey Lance? A similar strategy was used to acquire him but things haven’t been as hopeful in SF.
Thankfully, the final chapter of Lance’s NFL career hasn’t been written. Ideally, he’ll bounce back from his injury to put together a remarkable career. I wish him nothing but success. His GM’s somewhat coy response, though, does present some doubt, especially within the context of Pro Football Talk‘s report about Minnesota and San Francisco discussing a Lance trade.
Minnesota may pull off an insane trade to aggressively jump up for their QB of the future. Doing so presents an alluring possibility of NFL relevance for more than a decade. Missing, though, could set the team back in a serious way. The cost to go from #23 to the top of the draft will likely begin at three 1st-round selections.
The NFL Draft begins tonight at 7 CT. The Vikings currently own the 23rd selection.
Editor’s Note: Information from Pro Football Reference helped with this piece.
