Josh Dobbs Is Who He Is, For Better or Worse
Will Goodwin
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No, we shouldn’t expect a four-interception game with a dropped pick-six sprinkled in. But what we’ve now seen from Josh Dobbs over nearly four games as the Minnesota Vikings’ quarterback is what we can assume we’ll see for the last five.
At times, the Josh Dobbs Experience has been spectacular. Cris Collinsworth dared compare his off-script touchdown pass to Josh Oliver in Denver to something a certain quarterback who also wears 15 may have pulled off. The entire game-winning drive in Atlanta was magical, from the 4th-&-7, run-for-his-life, 22-yard scramble to the dart to Brandon Powell that secured Minnesota’s most improbable victory of the season, just days after Dobbs joined the club.
And at times, it’s been cringe-worthy. Despite a magnificent first half against New Orleans, the Passtronaut was erratic and inaccurate, unable to spearhead any offensive rhythm which allowed the Saints to nearly pull off an improbable comeback.
All night against Chicago – save three throws on the go-ahead drive in the fourth quarter – he was inaccurate, off-time, and too often, disastrous, to the tune of the aforementioned four interceptions. Perhaps the most egregious miss of all was when Jordan Addison streaked open on a double-move down the left sideline for what would have been a walk-in touchdown, and Dobbs’ throw led him out of bounds.
For a player of Dobbs’ caliber, we cannot expect him to throw with Kirk Cousins’ rhythm, timing, and accuracy. It’s not who he is and probably not who he will ever be.
Despite his athleticism, smarts, and incredible story, he is and will be a wildly inconsistent player. His chaotic, improvisational, and unproven play has begot a high variance in results. Because he and Kevin O’Connell were able to make lemonade out of rotten limes in wins over Atlanta and New Orleans, we came to expect the same each and every week. But it’s not sustainable and not who Dobbs is.
Key to who Dobbs is are his legs. His ability to move around in the pocket, escape pressure, and ultimately scramble are what make him not only a fun player to watch but a difficult one to defend. This season, he leads all QBs in rushes of 20 or more yards with six, a feat only two running backs have surpassed. However, when his ability to use his legs is compromised, his effectiveness is hamstrung.
Matt Eberflus did a great job all night of shrinking the pocket, limiting Dobbs’ ability to step up, slide either direction, or even step into throws. When the Vikings attempted to move the pocket and get Dobbs out in space, the Bears were waiting for him, disrupting his rhythm and the timing of the play.
“You’re hoping to get some explosives via the play-pass, keeper game, maybe a screen or two, and not make it such a drop-back game. They just wouldn’t let Josh’s athleticism really get started on any of that stuff. They kept him contained in there pretty good,” O’Connell said following Monday’s loss.
Most damaging of all are the turnovers. In four games in purple, Dobbs has turned the ball over 8 times, 6 of which have given their opponent the ball in Vikings’ territory. He’s fumbled 6 times, losing half. His 14 total fumbles this season are tops in the NFL.
Two turnovers per game is extreme and not to be expected for the duration of the season, but Dobbs has not proven that he can consistently protect the ball. In his 10 starts prior to joining the Vikings, he had turned the ball over 13 total times.
Despite the defense miraculously only surrendering 15 total points on Dobbs’ eight turnovers, such a quantity of giveaways is a surefire way to lose games.
After the Week 3 loss to San Diego, O’Connell said that “either guys are going to do it [protect the ball] or we’re going to have to put other guys in the game that have ball security.” Would he venture to take that approach to his new starting quarterback?
O’Connell has stressed ball security over and over this season, as he knows how deeply connected it is to winning.
Maybe it’s time to make a change that leans into that trend. It’s already on O’Connell’s mind.
“We’ll take the time over these next couple days to really evaluate, not only Monday Night, but the previous body of work and just see where we’re at as an offense, knowing that we’ll get Justin back in this offense to solidify our skill group… I think the quarterback position needs to be evaluated to just figure out what we think gives us the best chance to win… We’ll have some dialogue as a staff to ultimately figure out what we feel is best and then prepare accordingly.”
If Dobbs remains under center, he’ll probably win the Vikings a game they shouldn’t win and lose them a game they should have won. It’ll be fun, fantastic, flabbergasting, and frustrating.
It’ll be the Josh Dobbs experience.
Notes: Statistics were sourced from Pro Football Reference and Stathead.
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Will is a husband, father, and earned an undergraduate degree in Economics (just like Kwesi Adofo-Mensah). Will’s favorite pastimes are water skiing, Minnesota sports, and Cinnamon Toast Crunch. Formerly, he contributed to Vikings Territory. He is the co-host of the Load the Box Vikings Podcast with Jordan Hawthorn. Follow him on Twitter (@willbadlose) and find his other sports content at Twins Daily and his very own Bad Loser Blog.