Recent Vikings Debate Warrants the Question: Where Do First Overall Picks Get NFL Franchises?
In a recent episode of the very popular Vikings podcast “Purple Daily” produced by SKOR North, the crew of Declan Goff, Phil Mackey, and Judd Zulgad were presented a fan question that was rather difficult to answer: if guaranteed the first overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, should the Vikings trade star WR Justin Jefferson? The panel unanimously agreed that yes, the Vikings should pull the trigger on this trade.
Inevitably, this recent Vikings debate blew up on social media with a number of folks weighing in on both sides. On one hand, the Vikings would be guaranteed their choice of the top QBs in what looks like a talented upcoming draft class in 2024 (Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, just to name a couple), but on the other hand, it means parting ways with arguably the best receiver in the NFL.
Additionally, as always, regardless of how talented a prospect looks in June, it remains a crapshoot as to who will actually be at the top of the draft class when April arrives. At this time last year, everyone was crowning Tyler Van Dyke as a player on the same level as Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud.
So, what does history suggest about teams that select a quarterback with the first overall pick? Here are the last 15 quarterbacks to be selected No. 1 overall (excluding Bryce Young, who was selected No. 1 overall in 2023):
- 2021: Trevor Lawrence
- 2020: Joe Burrow
- 2019: Kyler Murray
- 2018: Baker Mayfield
- 2016: Jared Goff
- 2015: Jameis Winston
- 2012: Andrew Luck
- 2011: Cam Newton
- 2010: Sam Bradford
- 2009: Matthew Stafford
- 2007: Jamarcus Russell
- 2005: Alex Smith
- 2004: Eli Manning
- 2003: Carson Palmer
- 2002: David Carr
The jury is still out on a few of the younger QBs selected in recent years, including Bryce Young who hasn’t started a single game yet for the Carolina Panthers. However, of the 14 QBs on this list that now have at least two NFL seasons under their belt, there are a total of 26 combined Pro Bowl appearances, including 21 for the teams that they began their careers with (Eli Manning was drafted by the Chargers but played his entire career for the New York Giants, so we had to change things a bit).
Essentially, the average right now is 1.5 Pro Bowl seasons for a No. 1 overall QB for the team that selected them. Admittedly, Joe Burrow and Trevor Lawrence skew this number a bit as they each look like stars of the future in the AFC and should be selected multiple times in the future. They will need to combine to make seven more in order to raise that average up to two appearances.
Additionally, of the 12 players selected from 2002-2018, only Palmer, Manning, Smith, Stafford, Newton, and Luck spent more than five seasons with the team that selected them, equaling to a 50/50 chance that the quarterback will be gone by the time the rookie contract ends. It looks like Murray will get to spend more time with the Cardinals, but it wouldn’t be the first time Arizona unexpectedly moved on from a young QB if they decided to go in a separate direction for 2024. They should be in contention for a top pick this spring, so the temptation will be there, depending on how much capital they can get for the young QB.
On the other hand, it is rare to have a No. 1 overall pick that doesn’t make a playoff appearance, but how much success do they historically bring to a franchise? Well, while 11 of the 15 QBs have started at least one playoff game for the teams they began with, only eight have won playoff games for these teams with four appearing in Super Bowls. To this point, Manning is the only one to actually deliver a Lombardi Trophy to the team that he began his career with, and again, he wasn’t even drafted by the Giants.
For the Vikings, the situation would be a bit different, of course. This scenario suggests that Minnesota would be trading to acquire the first overall pick. They are not a roster in a complete rebuild to the point where they are a 3-4 win team and would be an ideal landing spot for a young QB. That being said, one of the main reasons that the Vikings sit in this situation is because Jefferson plays for the team. Getting rid of him negates a lot of the positives on Minnesota’s offense right now.
Essentially, at best, the Vikings have a 50/50 shot at making a playoff run with the QB that they select with the first overall pick. They have made the playoffs in two of the five seasons that Kirk Cousins has been in Minnesota, so perhaps these odds go slightly up. Actually winning a Super Bowl, though, remains a long shot, and something that hasn’t happened since 2011.
At the end of the day, it seems that if a team hits on one of these players, they really hit. Burrow, Luck, Manning, and Newton attest to this. However, there is just as much risk of a player busting (David Carr, Jamarcus Russell, Baker Mayfield) here as anywhere in the draft, and at the end of the day, the majority of these players have maxed out at slightly above average to even just plain old average. Sound familiar?
Josh Frey is a Class of 2020 graduate of The College of Idaho and managing editor of PurplePTSD.com. When he’s not writing about the NFL, Josh enjoys running, gaming, or rooting for the Milwaukee Brewers and Bucks. Check out his Twitter account: @Freyed_Chicken.