Kevin O’Connell Needs to Evolve
During the offseason, I wrote an article titled “At What Point Does the Kevin O’Connell Criticism Heat Up?” A brief tour through some of the comments left me with the impression that fans felt like I jumped the gun (an opinion expressed with no uncertainty in language but plenty of creativity in syntax).
The 1-4 start to the season has been leaving fans with plenty of frustration, so one wonders if the sentiment will have changed at all.
For the record, I’m of the belief that Kevin O’Connell is a good head coach. Not great, but good. He still has a ways to go when it comes to being mentioned among the league’s upper echelon (after all, Andy Reid got the better of him on Sunday). Where do things go from here for O’Connell, the QB-turned-coach who is now forced to operate without his clear-cut best player?
The Evolution of Kevin O’Connell
At some point, O’Connell’s words are going to become meaningless, akin to a politician’s promises on the campaign trail. Sure, they sound nice, but deep skepticism will linger about the grand plans coming to fruition.
The head coach expressed his desire to run the football more during the offseason. Bringing Alexander Mattison back, extending C.J. Ham, and onboarding Josh Oliver gave the words further credence. After five games, the run-game emphasis hasn’t materialized.
Currently, Minnesota has 91 rushing attempts, last place in the NFL. The 404 rushing yards are coming in at 28th even though their 4.4 yards per carry are coming in at 11th. Did you catch that? Minnesota is actually doing a nice job of running the ball, existing as a borderline top-10 group when it comes to moving the ball on the ground. Even still, the team has stubbornly chosen to keep attacking through the air.
At 1-4, one wonders if it’s now time to adjust that strategy (especially given the Justin Jefferson situation). O’Connell doesn’t need to become Mike Zimmer by trotting out a run-first operation but the coach may want to seriously consider bringing things closer to 50/50.
Too often, Kirk Cousins is getting suplexed. Too often, the Vikings are putting the ball in the other team’s hands. Too often, the Vikings are losing the time of possession battle. Getting the run/pass attempts into greater harmony would help. Right now, the Vikings have passed the football 204 times and run the ball 91 times. Put differently, they’re 1st in passing attempts and 32nd in rushing attempts.
When a team is spiralling, the solution most often rests in simplifying. Get back to basics. Return to the cornerstones of the sport — blocking effectively, taking care of the football, having great angles of pursuit, etc. — to begin digging out of the hole. Josh Metellus recently vowed to do precisely that, but the safety can only do so much. As a team, the Vikings need to adjust their approach.
A shrewd football analyst once said that the first step for getting out of a hole is to stop digging. The Vikings would be smart to take heed of that advice.
Averaging just 22 points per game, the Vikings need to find a way of rising to an elite point output without their elite talent at wide receiver. Trusting Jordan Addison to function as a true one-for-one replacement is almost certainly doomed to fail, no matter how impressive he has been (and make no mistake, the rookie receiver has been very impressive).
Bumping that points average higher will involve drives that consistently offer greater rhythm and balance. A hearty portion of the RB twosome would be a welcome shift, and so too would more targets for T.J. Hockenson and Josh Oliver seem to be a nice adjustment.
Hockenson — who just signed a 4-year, $66 million deal — is averaging just 8.5 yards per reception. Before departing Detroit in 2022, Hockenson was averaging 15.2 yards per reception. Greater volume and explosiveness would seem to be in order for the TE1.
People can (and do) debate the merits of PFF, but one recent tidbit is pretty fascinating: the Vikings possess the NFL’s top running blocking offensive line. Behind them are ferocious o-lines like Philadelphia, San Francisco, and Detroit. Leaning on that strength looks like a necessity moving forward.
The Next Steps
Toward the end of the O’Connell piece in the summer, I asked, “One does wonder, though, if the honeymoon phase will end in 2023. After all, most pundits and prophets are expecting a more disappointing season. If that occurs, will O’Connell start feeling the heat?”
I went on to list some of the reasons why there are concerns: “A Vikings fan could very reasonably look at last season’s decision to hire Donatell, the team’s inability to efficiently run the football, Kirk Cousins being sacked far too much, the offense struggling to get the play in on time as the QB frantically yelled audibles while the clock ticked toward zero, and the special teams’ many gaffes and mishaps (among other concerns) as reasons to be concerned about Mr. O’Connell.”
Some of those issues have been addressed, but there has been a stubbornness when it comes to adjusting the offense. Cousins is still getting hit hard and often; he is still overloaded at the line of scrimmage while frantically trying to get the snap off on time. And, as we’ve seen, the run game isn’t being featured even though the efficiency is improved.
Losing Justin Jefferson is horrible news, but the hope is that Kevin O’Connell can take the time to dig deeper into his bag of tricks. Adjusting his scheme to account for greater variance, balance, and time of possession would be a welcome development that will only help Jefferson to thrive once he’s back on the field.
Editor’s Note: Information from Pro Football Reference, PFF, StatMuse, and Over the Cap helped with this piece.
K. Joudry is the Senior Editor for Vikings Territory and PurplePTSD. He has been covering the Vikings full time since the summer of 2021. He can be found on Twitter and as a co-host for Notes from the North, a humble Vikings podcast.
