The Skol Debate: Have the Vikings Given Brian Flores Enough Support on Defense?
Josh Frey
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Brian Flores is being relied on to be a bit of a magician.
In 2019, the Vikings finished 5th in the NFL by allowing a modest 18.9 points against per game. Unfortunately, the 2020 season (29.7 points against – 29th), 2021 season (25.1 points against – 24th), and 2022 season (25.1 points against – 28th) were unable to get back to that brilliance. The most recent season – complete with a defense that seemed totally overmatched with great regularity – was easily the most frustrating.
The new defensive coordinator faces a tall task. Has Minnesota’s front office given him the talent necessary to turn things around? Does the chef have the ingredients he needs to put together a great meal?
To get to the bottom of the issue, the debaters are back. Take a look at where they stand:
- The Purple Corner: Josh Frey (more talent is needed)
- The Gold Corner: K. Joudry (the DC has enough to make it work)
With the positions out of the way, let’s hop into the debate. Oh, and feel free to find the authors on Twitter – Josh Frey & K. Joudry – to let them know what you foresee for Minnesota’s defense.
Brian Flores, the Vikings Defense, and The Quest for Improvement
KJ: Back again, Josh. Been too long.
Our topic is one that has been on the minds of many Vikings fans (a group that can sometimes be prone to doom-and-gloom, woe-is-us, the-time-is-nigh thinking). Brian Flores is the new defensive sheriff in town. Has Minnesota given him the personnel he needs to turn the Vikings’ defense around? After all, football is about the Jimmies and the Joes, not the Xs and the Os.
Minnesota’s fans are ones who genuinely appreciate stellar defensive play. The Purple People Eaters are the gold standard, but there have been other iterations of dominant defense, most recently in the stellar 2017-19 seasons. Getting the D back into a top-tier level would be welcome far and wide in The Gopher State.
Not too many expect an improvement that can rival these examples, but we can reasonably wonder if improvement is in store for this group. How do you see things going in 2023? Any reasons for hope that Mr. Flores can pull off some magic?
JF: If nothing else, the Vikings certainly made an effort to get younger on the defensive side of the ball this offseason, and that is exciting to see. Gone are the days of an aged secondary attempting to keep up with quicker receivers and 30+ year old linebackers being forced to do far too much.
However, youth can also be a double-edged sword in the NFL. While the Vikings may be a bit quicker on that side of the ball, they are also extremely inexperienced. Everyone has talked about the cornerback room at this point where, outside of free agent acquisition Byron Murphy, no other player has started more than two games in a season.
Harrison Smith still sticks around at safety, but at age 34, he can only do so much to lead this group in the secondary. Without the veteran leadership of guys like Eric Kendricks or Patrick Peterson, I foresee some big growing pains as they try to learn Flores’ scheme.
But what say you? Should Vikings fans be more optimistic about this group heading into the 2023 season?
KJ: Yes, they should be optimistic. Let me humbly submit the names of two Vikings players who could improve Minnesota’s defense: TE Josh Oliver and FB C.J. Ham.
It’s somewhat odd to see a couple players on offense, so allow me to explain why Mr. Flores was likely very happy to see both on the ‘23 roster.
Last season, Minnesota didn’t do a very good job in their time of possession fight. Far too often, the defense struggled to get off the field and the offense struggled to maintain long, clock-killing drives. In the playoffs, the Giants maintained possession for 33:36, one of the many reasons why they upset the Vikings at U.S. Bank stadium. That may not sound like much, but don’t forget that time of possession is a zero-sum game. Every moment the Giants held the ball was a moment when Minnesota couldn’t score. Kevin O’Connell’s group only had possession for 26:24. Not good enough.
Adding a blocking specialist at tight end and retaining a thumper at fullback can help.
When they’re on the field, Oliver and Ham will force defenses to respect the run. Failing to do so will lead to Alexander Mattison being sprung loose for large gains. O’Connell, a quarterback by trade, isn’t against churning out first downs on the ground. While we should expect the Vikings to prioritize the pass – they didn’t draft Jordan Addison so he could clear running lanes, and that Justin Jefferson guy seems to be alright – we should nevertheless expect a renewed commitment to the ground game.
Mike Zimmer constantly preached about the importance of complementary football. The basic idea is that all phases of the game are interconnected. Yes, they appear distinct, but, in reality, they all work together to form a coherent whole. When the offense maintains possession (and the special teams offer great field position), the defense is in a good position to thrive.
It’s as if O’Connell saw the issue and responded by adjusting his offense in a manner that will help his DC. Even the great Patrick Mahomes can’t score TDs if his backside is stapled to the bench. When you’re a hammer, every problem is a nail. The offensive-minded coach saw the problem – a struggling defense – and responded in a way that made sense to him: adjust the offense.
My first main reason for optimism, then, doesn’t really have anything to do with the defense or even Brian Flores. Greater time of possession means less opportunity to score on Minnesota.
Is that persuasive at all? Why do you foresee struggle?
JF: That does make some sense, considering Minnesota tied for the fifth-fewest carries in the league last season, and their drives were the fourth-shortest on average in the league at 2 minutes and 34 seconds. Only the Broncos, Jets, and Texans were worse in that regard. Perhaps more of a focus on the rushing attack takes a bit of the heat off the defense.
Obviously, a portion of Minnesota’s defensive struggles also had to do with the fact that Ed Donatell’s scheme allowed teams to consistently gain chunk yards by throwing underneath the CBs. With Flores taking over the reins, it hopefully will be a bit tougher to get these easy dump-off throws.
The Vikings schedule also has to be taken into account here, though. Last season, Minnesota played seven games against teams that ranked among the top half of the league in terms of offensive EPA/play. This season, that number jumps up to nine, and they play six of those games against top-six teams from 2022 (Kansas City, Philadelphia, San Francisco, Cincinnati, Detroit twice).
Further concerning is the fact that all of those aforementioned five teams continuously won by throwing the ball as each of them ranked in the top-seven in terms of EPA/pass, and the Vikings play against both Philadelphia and Kansas City in the first five weeks of the season.
Again, the Vikings cornerback room likely is going to rely heavily on guys like Mekhi Blackmon, Andrew Booth Jr., and Akayleb Evans to hold down the fort opposite Byron Murphy, and it feels a bit unrealistic not to expect a few growing pains, especially early in the season.
Perhaps the Vikings offense can limit the damage by slowing things down, but it will still be on the defense to get stops when they are on the field. Because of their first-place schedule – and the offenses they will go up against – I see some struggles for Minnesota, particularly in the secondary.
What do you think? What signs have we seen that should offer hope for this group this season?
KJ: Right, fair points across the board.
Where I’ll push back is in the scheme and what we’ll expect the corners to do. Allowing the corners to be physical and competitive will make life easier, despite the lack of experience. Yes, the team has moved on from a lot of talent – especially at corner given the subtractions of Patrick Peterson (1105 snaps), Duke Shelley (397 snaps), Chandon Sullivan (945 snaps), Cameron Dantzler (505 snaps), and Kris Boyd (37 snaps).
However, the team didn’t exactly light it up with those players on board. True, there were some exemplary individual grades on PFF and some notable statistical accomplishments (5 INTs for Peterson, for instance), but the unit as a whole was truly awful.
Flores is going to allow the long and strong Evans and Booth to get their mitts on receivers to disrupt the timing between receiver and quarterback. At times, the strategy is going to backfire and there will be chunk gains for the opposition. On the whole, though, we’re likely to see a pretty good step forward. After all, it’s not like the former corners were doing a great job of limiting chunk gains.
My main reason for optimism with these corners is what the DC is going to ask the other defensive players to do.
Consider Jordan Hicks, for instance. The LB simply isn’t going to win very often when he’s tasked with carrying Tony Pollard one-on-one on a wheel route. Instead, let the physical LB come forward.
Last season, Hicks only blitzed 17 times. Look at his totals the three previous seasons: 86 blitzes, 89 blitzes, and 49 blitzes. My point is simply that asking Mr. Hicks to do something he’s good at – attacking the quarterback – will have a ripple effect throughout the defense. He’ll be better and so will his teammates. Generating more pressure means the CBs won’t have to cover as long.
Sparking a reinvigorated pass rush will lead to better things for the coverage, especially since we should finally see Lewis Cine carve out a role on defense. Camryn Bynum struggled mightily in 2022, allowing nearly 66% of passes into his coverage to be completed as he allowed 8 TDs and a collective 123.0 passer rating. If Cine lives up to his draft status – no guarantee, but we should be optimistic – the backend gets a boost.
What happens if the linebackers and safeties are better? Well, we can think of the corners and how their job gets easier. I’m not expecting Evans to replicate Revis Island, but I am expecting the sophomore to compete like crazy and be disruptive. Given what we’ve seen recently, that’ll be a breath of fresh air.
In short, I’m looking at both what Flores will ask his corners to do (play a more competitive, physical coverage) and what he’ll ask the other players to do (blitz far more and aggressively fly up the field) as reasons to think these corners have a shot at surprising us.
JF: Perhaps you are correct, and in fact, I hope you are correct. It would be extremely exciting to see what might happen if the Vikings can pair their strong offense from 2022 with even an average defense this season.
We should also note that Flores certainly has had a knack for turning defenses around in the past. While in Miami, the Dolphins ranked 32nd in scoring during his first year, before turning into an above-average group in both 2020 and 2021, including allowing just 21.1 points in 2020.
If the Vikings can get anywhere close to that this year while maintaining their offensive production, it feels safe to suggest that they could compete for a Super Bowl in 2023.
Personally, I am still in a ‘wait and see’ state with this team. Hopeful optimism is certainly welcomed in this corner, but I need to see this group play well before crowning them.
I will say, though, I would be much more inclined to come towards your side if they added another veteran player in that secondary that has multiple years of starting experience. An added security blanket, particularly for that early season stretch while the young players continue to work out the kinks would be very comforting.
Someone like a Marcus Peters comes to mind. With Minnesota’s recent cap relief from the Za’Darius Smith trade and a Dalvin Cook move likely on the horizon, it feels like Minnesota could pull such a move off.
I guess my final question for you is this: do you think we should expect an additional move on the defense, or are you content to let things roll into the regular season as-is?
KJ: I will always welcome more defensive talent. My mind instinctively wanders toward the front where some prominent pass rushers – Leonard Floyd, Justin Houstin, Frank Clark – remain available, but adding someone at corner isn’t a bad thing. And, as you point out, the team has the cap space to pull something off.
Forced to guess, I’d say Kwesi slow plays things a touch, perhaps constraining himself to just a single addition prior to training camp. Depending on how things look, the GM may be inclined to come around to some of those veterans. Give the coaches a chance to get their mitts on the talent and see what the competition is looking like. If they begin clamoring for more help, Kwesi can start flirting with the FAs who are still looking for work in 2023.
Even without making an addition, though, we should expect a better performance from the thoroughly unaggressive, bland approach of 2022. Simply seeing a defense that aggressively tries to stop the opponent will be a welcome change for a lot of Vikings fans.
Editor’s Note: Information from Pro Football Reference and nfelo helped with this piece.
