Will Anyone Compete with the Jacksonville Jaguars in the AFC South?
Josh Frey
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As training camp continues to get closer, many folks have begun previewing the 2023 season and what we should expect to see from each NFL team in 2023. Over the past few weeks, we have been breaking down all 32 NFL teams.
This process has gone over some of the biggest moves of the offseason, best-case and worst-case scenarios for 2023, and addressing some of the questions facing each team. Today, we wrap things up by discussing the young AFC South, and whether or not anyone can put pressure on the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Houston Texans
- 2022 Record: 3-13-1 (4th in AFC South)
- Best Addition: QB C.J. Stroud
- Biggest Loss: WR Brandin Cooks
- Underrated Move: Signing TE Dalton Schultz
- 2023 Floor: 2-15
- 2023 Ceiling: 6-11
- Biggest Question: Can Stroud be a franchise QB?
The Houston Texans have been on the search for a true franchise quarterback for virtually their entire existence. They thought that they had found that guy in the 2017 Draft by picking Deshaun Watson, but that was quickly derailed by sexual assault accusations. The Texans shipped him off to Cleveland, and now they are trying again with Stroud.
Don’t expect things to turn around overnight in Houston, but the arrow is certainly pointed in the upward direction for this franchise. Not only did they potentially find a great QB, but they found an outstanding talent at EDGE in Will Anderson. The signing of Dalton Schultz immediately gives Stroud a veteran, big-bodied presence to pass to as well, and that should help his development over the course of his rookie year.
Indianapolis Colts
- 2022 Record: 4-12-1 (3rd in AFC South)
- Best Addition: QB Anthony Richardson
- Biggest Loss: LB Bobby Okerke
- Underrated Move: Drafting DT Adetomiwa Adebawore in the fourth round
- 2023 Floor: 4-13
- 2023 Ceiling: 7-10
- Biggest Question: Is Anthony Richardson more than a dynamic runner?
The Texans aren’t the only team with a shiny new top-five pick at quarterback. The Indianapolis Colts landed playmaking QB Anthony Richardson with the fourth overall pick as well.
Richardson will play in the same division as Stroud, but he is the antithesis of the Ohio State product as a quarterback. Stroud largely relied on sharp accuracy out of the pocket and rarely scrambled. Meanwhile, Richardson’s greatest attribute while at Florida was his legs while struggling with erratic passing at times.
Luckily, success in Indianapolis may not solely rely on Richardson proving to be a strong passer. The Colts are quietly building a very strong defensive group, and they made additions of CB Julius Brents and DT Adetomiwa Adebawore in this spring’s draft to provide extra depth to what could be a top-10 group in 2023.
Jacksonville Jaguars
- 2022 Record: 9-8 (1st in AFC South)
- Best Addition: WR Calvin Ridley
- Biggest Loss: RT Jawaan Taylor
- Underrated Move: Drafting TE Brenton Strange in the second round
- 2023 Floor: 10-7
- 2023 Ceiling: 12-5
- Biggest Question: Does Travon Walker take a leap in Year Two?
Trevor Lawrence’s second NFL season began much like his first as the Jaguars stumbled out of the gates to a 3-7 start. However, the team caught fire following their Week 11 bye, winning six of their final seven games, capturing an AFC South title, and defeating the Los Angeles Chargers in the Wild Card round after overcoming a 27-0 deficit.
Now, Lawrence heads into year three with what could be the best receiving group of his young career with the addition of Calvin Ridley following his suspension that held him out of the entire 2022 season. The last time we saw a fully healthy Ridley, he put together 1352 yards and 9 TDs for the Falcons in 2020.
The defense seems poised to build off a strong year last season too. Despite an underwhelming year from first overall pick Travon Walker, the team still ranked 10th in defensive EPA. If they get anything more out of Walker this season, the Jaguars could be a very scary team.
Tennessee Titans
- 2022 Record: 7-10 (2nd in AFC South)
- Best Addition: OT Peter Skoronski
- Biggest Loss: G Nate Davis
- Underrated Move: Signing LB Luke Gifford
- 2023 Floor: 5-12
- 2023 Ceiling: 10-7
- Biggest Question: Is Derrick Henry still king?
In 2023, the Tennessee Titans will go as far as Derrick Henry can carry them. Ryan Tannehill is on a steep decline at the quarterback position entering his age-35 season, and it doesn’t seem that either Will Levis or Malik Willis will be ready to take over the reins right away.
However, despite recording over 1500 rushing yards once again in 2022, Henry has not been nearly as efficient a rusher as he once was. In 2021, he averaged 4.3 yards per carry during an injury-riddled season, but in 2022, that number did not bounce back to its usual 5.0+. Instead, it was status quo at 4.4 yards per carry, leading the league with 349 attempts just to get to that 1500-yard mark.
The loss of Nate Davis at guard doesn’t provide much hope that the rushing attack between the tackles will get much better in 2023, either. DeAndre Hopkins will provide a veteran target opposite second-year receiver Treylon Burks, but this team feels like it is destined for mediocrity unless Henry bounces back in a big way.
Josh Frey is a Class of 2020 graduate of The College of Idaho and managing editor of PurplePTSD.com. When he’s not writing about the NFL, Josh enjoys running, gaming, or rooting for the Milwaukee Brewers and Bucks. Check out his Twitter account: @Freyed_Chicken.