The Chiefs at Vikings: One Stat, Quote, and Matchup to Know Ahead of Week 5
Getting into the win column feels good for the Vikings, a truth that extends equally to players and fans alike. Kevin O’Connell has been hard at work trying to get his team out of the NFL’s basement, but a date with Andy Reid’s squad won’t make that ambition any easier.
Giving fans a better understanding of what’s to come for the Chiefs at Vikings involves PurplePTSD offering up a single statistic, quotation, and matchup to keep in mind. The hope, valued reader, is that the information contained in this piece can function as a bit of a primer for what’s to come in tomorrow’s matchup. Enjoy.
The Chiefs at Vikings
Stat: 33.3%
On average, Kansas City’s opponents are converting just a third of their 3rd-down attempts. The Vikings need to push that average closer to (beyond?) the 40% mark to come away with the upset victory.
In Carolina, the Vikings did a terrible job of getting things done on 3rd down. Only a single time did the Vikings get a fresh set of downs, which contributed to the foibles in the time of possession battle.
At the end of the game, the Panthers had maintained possession for 38:29. With Bryce Young under center, that’s not much of an issue. What about with Patrick Mahomes? Well, there could be some issues. Let’s not forget that we’re talking about a QB who is historically great. Giving him nearly 40 minutes of a 60-minute game is an ill-advised approach.
The best way to defend Mahomes is to ensure his backside is parked on the bench. To do so, Minnesota needs to put together long, methodical drives. Or, put differently, the kind of drives that are filled with 3rd-down conversions.
Quote: Kevin O’Connell on the Challenge of Mahomes
A humdrum start for Patrick Mahomes, at least by his lofty standards. The NFL’s QB1 is sitting on 1,006 passing yards, 8 TDs, and 4 INTs while completing 64.3% of his passes.
Kevin O’Connell knows better than to doubt Mahomes, though. Instead, the head coach is pointing out that the team will need to bring a complete effort to slow down Mahomes: “But it’s a huge, huge challenge to defend this team, and we’ve got to be at our best every single snap. And if you have any let-up or any breakdown, [Mahomes is] going to find it and make a huge play.”
Earlier in the week, PurplePTSD considered the issue: “The Vikings will fail spectacularly if shutting down Mahomes comes down to just a handful of players. He’s at such a level that the best way to overcome him is to lean on a fully unified effort.”
In practical terms, that means Josh Oliver paving the way for Alexander Mattison is defending Mahomes just as Marcus Davenport getting a sack is defending Mahomes. Ryan Wright giving his team tremendous field position is part of the equation just as Brian Flores creating pre-snap confusion is part of the equation, as well.
So, to build off of O’Connell’s point, the focus needs to not only be a full defensive effort but also one where the team wins in all facets of the game.
Matchup: The Safeties vs. Travis Kelce
The current Kansas City receiver group isn’t what most people are used to seeing.
Gone are options like Tyreek Hill, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Mecole Hardman. In are players like Skyy Moore, Kadarius Toney, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. Some talent, to be sure, but certainly not on the level of previous years. One who remains, though, is Travis Kelce. Best known for being Taylor Swift’s current love interest, Kelce has also dabbled in football.
The 34-year-old TE is up to 17 catches, 155 yards, and 2 TDs. He missed the season’s opening game due to injury and his production hasn’t been at the level of previous seasons. In 2022, he had 110 catches, 1,338 yards, and 12 TDs. Those are totals that are a long way off from his current pace, but there’s very little reason to doubt his ability.
The Vikings will probably lean on many different players to corral Kelce. Linebackers Ivan Pace Jr. and Jordan Hicks will get their chances against him, but one wonders about a hearty portion of help from the safeties. Harrison Smith and Josh Metellus often live near the line of scrimmage, and both have the physicality that Flores will be looking to see from whoever is opposite of the All Pro TE.
Sellout on slowing Kelce down. Force Mahomes to get to options #2, #3, and #4 in the passing game. If he can still get it done, then you tip the cap and adjust for the next drive.
Editor’s Note: Information from Pro Football Reference helped with this piece.
K. Joudry is the Senior Editor for Vikings Territory and PurplePTSD. He has been covering the Vikings full time since the summer of 2021. He can be found on Twitter and as a co-host for Notes from the North, a humble Vikings podcast.
