Why a Disastrous 2023 Could Lead to Vikings Prosperity
K. Joudry
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For a little while, the San Francisco 49ers have been a top team in the NFC. Kyle Shanahan, to my mind, is a top-5 NFL head coach. Boiling things down to just offensive minds would involve Shanahan hanging around in the top 3. He’s brilliant. Not without flaw, but brilliant nonetheless.
Something that’s easy to overlook, though, is that San Francisco had a horrible 2018 season. Shanahan’s team fished with a paltry 4 wins, meaning they were among the worst teams in the NFL. The upside is that they selected Nick Bosa 2nd overall in the draft, further reinforcing a defense that already had considerable talent.
Could a similar outcome lead to Vikings prosperity?
Vikings Prosperity and the Allure of Failure
Let’s get something out of the way: the Vikings are not tanking. Sure, there are plenty of fans and analysts (and surely even some NFL scouts, GMs, and coaches) who believe they should embrace a tank, but that’s not something the ownership or management are interested in pursuing.
If, in the end, the Vikings live in the NFL’s basement, it’ll be because they fell well short of internal expectations, not because they actively tried to be bad.
Seeing as how the team does boast some top-end talent — Justin Jefferson, T.J. Hockenson, Harrison Smith, Christian Darrisaw, Danielle Hunter — the expectation really should be that Minnesota pushes for the North. Repeating as division champs would be a notable feat for Kevin O’Connell since the only other two head coaches to have done so for the Vikings are Bud Grant and Brad Childress.
In the NFL, nothing is certain. The Vikings have the capacity to once again soar into the double digits with their win total, and yet seeing them finish with an underwhelming record wouldn’t be completely shocking.
A lot of fans will tell you that purple purgatory is the worst outcome. Finishing 7-10, for instance, is much less desirable than finishing 3-14. Seeing so many losses hit the ledger would be discouraging but the promise of being able to snag one of the draft’s true top-end talents is a tantalizing prospect.
Which, of course, brings us back around to the 49ers’ model. Behind an innovative offensive mind and a truly ferocious defense, San Francisco has solidified themselves as being among the most impressive teams in the NFL. Last year, they ended the season with a +173 point differential, a number that stands in stark contrast to Minnesota’s -3 point differential by the season’s end.
In fact, no team did better with their point differential than the 49ers. Were it not for the team losing their top 4 QBs by the NFC Championship Game, San Francisco may have reasonably overcome the Eagles to represent the conference in the Super Bowl.
Back to how SF built off that 2019 NFL Draft.
Even more wild is that the Bosa add stands along other significant additions from the same draft. Deebo Samuel – who beat out Justin Jefferson for the AP1 spot in 2021 – was taken 36th overall. Dre Greenlaw, an underrated linebacker, went 148th. In other words, San Francisco crushed their draft.
Obviously, the further down things go, the less that high draft placement matters. Snagging players like Bosa and Samuel at the top of the 1st and 2nd, though, is a surefire recipe to give one’s team a major boost. Each player offered All-Pro play while still in their initial 4 years in the NFL (or, put differently, the length of the standard rookie deal).
What has SF done since taking those players? Well, they made the Super Bowl during Bosa’s and Samuel’s rookie seasons. They floundered in 2020, stumbling to a 6-10 record. The past couple of seasons, though, have featured consecutive NFC Conference Championship games.
So, the rookie contract years for those two players involved missing the playoffs once, losing in the conference championship twice, and a Super Bowl appearance. Not perfect, but we’re definitely considering a tremendous team. Elite talent on cost-controlled deals — and at premium positions, no less — has been a major part of the equation.
Something that has long been apparent is that Kwesi Adofo-Mensah is the value GM. The former stock trader wants to pile up players who outperform their contracts, so much so that he’s willing to make difficult cuts and trades to ensure the finances are in good order. Every single NFL GM will say that he’s interested in getting value at every twist and turn but Kwesi is at least somewhat unique in that he’s been courageous enough to actually follow through on those convictions.
Again, Adofo-Mensah and O’Connell are definitely not trying to drop down the standings in 2023. Their goal is to hop into the postseason and make some noise once there. Success, though, isn’t assured, especially for a team like the Vikings.
A year of picking super high would offer the potential to snag a player at a premium position who will be locked into an artificially-cheap contract. Rookie deals offer huge opportunity for teams to gain excess value. Need an example? Just look at Mr. Justin Jefferson. Last year, the Offensive Player of the Year carried a cap hit below $3.6 million.
Offering the defense a top talent along the edge or possibly at corner could make all the difference. And, of course, many will think of the potential to add a highly-regarded quarterback. Does O’Connell get the chance to tie his career to a young QB whom he can shape into the Vikings’ long-term QB1?
Minnesota’s training camp begins on July 23rd. No team can win a SB in July, but plenty of teams lay the foundation for losing the SB. Ideally, the team will begin building the habits that lead to wonderful on-field success.
If they fall short, the team may put themselves in a position to benefit over the long haul.
Editor’s Note: Information from Pro Football Reference and Over the Cap helped with this piece.
