The Vikings Are Stuck In No Man’s Land
After starting 0-3, the Minnesota Vikings finally got their first regular season win against the Carolina Panthers. While many fans are happy that the Vikings are finally among the NFL teams to have won a game, I personally couldn’t be less enthused.
The Vikings’ performance was unimpressive, to say the least. Kirk Cousins threw two interceptions in the first half, one of which was returned 99 yards for a touchdown, and the Vikings entered halftime trailing 13-7 against one of the worst teams in the league. Minnesota rallied back in the third quarter when Harrison Smith forced a fumble that was returned by D.J. Wonnum for a defensive touchdown, with the offense doing just enough to secure the win by a score of 21-13.
The Vikings Are in a Tricky Spot: Is This No Man’s Land?
While the win is great for locker room morale, the Vikings have suddenly found themselves stuck in no man’s land.
The Vikings are not equipped to make a serious run in the playoffs, and the odds of them making it to the postseason to begin with are slim. Generally speaking, teams that begin with an 0-3 record struggle to get into the postseason (just think back to the 2020 Vikings and their 0-3 record). As Dustin Baker notes on Vikings Territory, only a half dozen teams have gone to the playoffs after dropping the initial three games. There has never been a Super Bowl winner that started 0-3.
The next three games aren’t very forgiving, with the Vikings facing off against the Kansas City Chiefs, the San Francisco 49ers, and a junior varsity team. In all likelihood, the Vikings will beat the Bears but lose to the Chiefs and 49ers, putting them at 2-5 on the season. From there, the Vikings would need to go 5-0 against the Packers, Falcons, Saints, Broncos, and Bears just to get above .500 before the bye week. Definitely not impossible, but it’s very difficult to go on a 5-game win streak. I could see the Packers, Falcons, and Saints beating the Vikings if the turnover woes continue.
After that, the Vikings play the Raiders, Bengals, Lions, Packers, and the Lions again to end the season. Minnesota would be lucky to go 3-2 against those teams with wins against the Raiders, Packers, and one of the Lions games. That would put the Vikings at 10-7 to finish the season, with the team fighting for a wild card spot.
Is a wild card berth really worth all of the trouble, though?
Kirk Cousins is in the last year of his contract, the defense doesn’t have the personnel to be above average, and the Vikings have yet to prove they are capable of beating teams that are better than them, let alone winning close games.
In my opinion, the Vikings would be better off in the long run if they initiated a full-on rebuild as opposed to going one-and-done in the playoffs. Try to get a high draft pick and land a blue-chip quarterback like Caleb Williams or Drake Maye. That would’ve been a great strategy if the Vikings lost to the Panthers. By beating Carolina, Minnesota lessened their chances of successfully tanking for Caleb Williams or Drake Maye. The Chicago Bears and the Carolina Panthers are the only winless teams remaining, and Chicago owns the rights to the Panthers first-round pick.
Basically, a division rival holds all the cards entering the 2024 draft, and they will do everything in their power to ensure the Vikings don’t get Caleb Williams or Drake Maye. It doesn’t matter how desperate Kwesi Adofo-Mensah would be to trade with a division rival. If they’re lucky, the Vikings could get Michael Penix or Bo Nix, but neither of those players are of the same caliber as Caleb Williams.
For years, the Vikings have been hovering slightly above the Andy Dalton line. For those who are unaware, the Dalton line (also known as the Dalton scale) is a measurement tool used to determine whether or not you have an above-average or a below-average quarterback. This metric was created back when Andy Dalton was still the Bengals starter.
Kirk Cousins is a perennial slightly above-average quarterback. So if you’re replacing Kirk Cousins, there’s a certain level of pressure for the replacement to not only be good, but to be better than Kirk was. Otherwise, people will start making the argument that the Vikings downgraded at QB.
As of now, Caleb Williams and Drake Maye are the only quarterbacks in this draft class who I can confidently say will be better than Cousins. Unfortunately for the Vikings, they lessened their chances of getting Williams and Maye by giving the Bears more control of the top of the draft.
Not only are the Vikings likely to miss the playoffs, but they could miss out on a blue-chip quarterback prospect, as well. It doesn’t matter if this team wins or loses, because they’ll be stuck in no man’s land regardless. Which is all the more depressing.
