Can Kevin O’Connell Avoid the Mike Zimmer Curse?
Kevin O’Connell exceeded expectations in Year 1. Mike Zimmer stumbled in his final pair of seasons in Minnesota, so success was far from a guarantee for the new HC.
Very few would have predicted a 13-4 record and NFC North crown. The offense, for the most part, was dangerous. Kirk Cousins & Friends led the team to the pristine record, finishing the year with a 24.9 PPG average (8th in the NFL). A certain young wideout even won the NFL’s Offensive Player of the Year Award for his troubles.
For a time, Zimmer was one of the NFL’s preeminent head coaches. His 2017 defense was a marvellous group that flamed out in the NFC Championship Game. A great drawback of his time in the purple saddle, though, is that the defensive wizard could never get his team to the postseason in consecutive seasons.
The Mike Zimmer Curse
Toward the end of his time in Minnesota, Mike Zimmer was well-known for having a good season and then a poor season. In some ways, the narrative wasn’t entirely accurate. By any reasonable measure, his debut season (a 7-9 finish) was a success given that they were coming off a year when they finished 5-10-1.
Regardless, the pattern held strong for a little while before trailing off at the end as ineptitude became a more prominent force. Take a look at the recap.
| Year | Record | End Result |
| 2014 | 7-9 | Missed Playoffs |
| 2015 | 11-5 | Wild Card Round Loss |
| 2016 | 8-8 | Missed Playoffs |
| 2017 | 13-3 | NFC Championship Game Loss |
| 2018 | 8-7-1 | Missed Playoffs |
| 2019 | 10-6 | Divisional Round Loss |
| 2020 | 7-9 | Missed Playoffs |
| 2021 | 8-9 | Missed Playoffs |
With only a single season under his belt, Kevin O’Connell’s chart looks considerably less robust:
| Year | Record | End Result |
| 2022 | 13-4 | Wild Card Round Loss |
The Vikings haven’t made the postseason in back-to-back seasons since 2008-09. Those years bridged the gap between a team overachieving with Gus Frerotte as the primary QB1 (with a sprinkling of Tarvaris Jackson) and then the magical run with Brett Favre under center.
In 2023, Kevin O’Connell will get the chance do something Mike Zimmer was never able to do: make the postseason in back-to-back seasons.
Standing in his way are persistent fears about a regression. Can clutch Cousins continue being a thing? Can the offense successfully transition to more 12 personnel? Can Kwesi Adofo-Mensah’s first draft class make more of an impact on the field?
Perhaps most importantly, can Brian Flores rejuvenate a once-proud Vikings defense? The last time that group was respectable was during the 2019 season when Zim was still in town.
During a recent episode of Notes from the North, Sam and I had the good fortune of speaking to Jeremy Reisman of Pride of Detroit. One of the fascinating points was that the Detroit Lions are navigating legitimate expectations for the first time in a long time. A lot of people think they’re the favorites for the NFC North. Can they actually fulfill people’s expectations?
Meanwhile, the Vikings are trending in the opposite direction (as least in the minds of many). One of Zim’s redeeming qualities is that he thrived on doubt, using the outside perspective as fuel to motivate a relentless work ethic. Certainly, there have been fair criticisms about how things went down in Minnesota, but the former HC’s willingness to embrace the skepticism before repackaging it into the reason to keep grinding is a message that resonated with a lot of Vikings fans.
Kevin O’Connell has already overcome some long odds. Turning in a 13-4 record was sensational. Replicating the regular season success while obtaining playoff success would break the Mike Zimmer curse while further entrenching the new HC as the right choice for right now and the years to come.
Editor’s Note: Information from Pro Football Reference helped with this piece.
