Justin Jefferson’s Injury Brings the Vikings Face-to-Face with Their 2023 Reality
Will Goodwin
|
For five weeks, the reigning NFC North Champions have played with their food. They’ve messed around and found out the hard way, and now, they find themselves in a 1-4 reality while dealing with the fact that Justin Jefferson will miss at least the next four games on IR.
For a team that was beautifully buttoned up and strikingly detailed just a season ago, it’s been shocking to see the absolute antithesis of all they established upon the advent of the Kevin O’Connell and Kwesi Adofo-Mensah regime.
In 2022, the Vikings had 7 turnovers in the 1st Quarter. In 2023, they have already matched that total, with 3 of them occurring on Minnesota’s first possession of the game. As a reminder, Kevin O’Connell’s team has only played five games this season.
To further dampen their chances of squeaking out all of these one-score games, Minnesota has turned the ball over an NFL-leading 12 times, 6 of which have been committed in the red zone. Thus, despite ranking 4th in the NFL in yards per play, the Vikings are only 16th in points per game. Efficiency only matters if the drive ends in points, preferably seven of them.
This trend is a complete reversal of the fortunes the Vikings enjoyed in 2022. Last season, Kirk Cousins and Co. were only 11th in yards per play, but finished 8th in points while winning 76% of their games.
The 2022 Vikings tied NFL records for 4th-quarter comebacks and game-winning drives with 8 each. The 2023 Vikings have had chances to make such drives in three of their losses and have come up empty each time.
The Situational Masters were clutch. This group, for whatever reason, is not.
The same coaching staff returned and was bolstered by a defensive coordinator hiring that was seen as one of the best offseason moves in all of the NFL. The offense was supposed to get better with the additions of Jordan Addison and Josh Oliver.
In some ways, both of those things have been true. Compared to last season, the defense has improved in allowed yards per play, yards per game, net yards per pass attempt, rush yards per attempt, and most importantly, points. The offense has seen efficiency upticks with both the run and the pass.
However, it all comes back to turnover margin and red zone efficiency. In 2022, the Vikings forced 25 turnovers. This season, they are only on pace to force 10. Although 23 giveaways in 2022 is not something to celebrate, it’s much better than the unfathomable 41 they are on pace to commit this season.
Due to the bevy of red zone turnovers, when the Vikings offense penetrates the opposition’s 20-yard line, they are only scoring touchdowns 50% of the time. That number was 62.5% a year ago. Conversely, Flores’ defense is allowing touchdowns 69.2% of the time compared to Donatell’s 57.1% clip.
Yet another measure of the importance of being at your best when your best is required, one of O’Connell’s favorite idioms.
This Vikings team clearly has enough to compete with any team in the NFL. They turned the ball over four times, and yet, was a 3rd down stop from a chance to knock off the NFC Champs on the road. Another early turnover, drops by their best players, clock mismanagement, questionable officiating, and an injury to their superstar led to a slim one-score loss to the Super Bowl Champs.
All of the fumbles, untimely penalties, and coach-to-quarterback miscommunications have led to the Vikings staring at a lost season only 5 weeks into a once-hopeful campaign. Even the punter has been less precise: Ryan Wright’s two touchbacks in 2023 are already double his 2022 total.
Your guess is as good as mine when it comes to understanding why the 2023 Vikings, a group that is nearly a carbon copy of the 2022 collection, seem to implode in all the big moments.
Maybe T.J. Hockenson and Brian O’Neill missing most of training camp matters more than we would have thought. Maybe Garrett Bradbury is as important as his teammates and coaches have said. Maybe Kevin O’Connell hasn’t adjusted to defenses adjusting to his play calling. Or maybe, it’s just the football gods enacting their justice on all the good fortune Minnesota received last year.
Either way, the Minnesota Vikings of 2023 have exhausted their opportunities to sustain the success they experienced in 2022. In some ways, they deserve losing the privilege of Justin Jefferson for at least four weeks, a blow that could effectively end their season and force the organization to pick either the competitive or the rebuild lane.
Notes: Statistics were sourced from Pro Football Reference.
Will is a husband, father, and earned an undergraduate degree in Economics (just like Kwesi Adofo-Mensah). Will’s favorite pastimes are water skiing, Minnesota sports, and Cinnamon Toast Crunch. He is the co-host of the Load the Box Vikings Podcast with Jordan Hawthorn. Follow him on Twitter (@willbadlose) and find his other sports content at Twins Daily and his very own Bad Loser Blog.