Is Aaron Rodgers Heading Toward a Similar Fate as Russell Wilson?

NFL: San Francisco 49ers at Denver Broncos
Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

Most seem to assume that the Aaron Rodgers/New York Jets marriage will work well.

And, to be sure, there’s good reason for that belief. Last year, the Jets boasted one of the NFL’s top defenses. Robert Saleh leaned on top-end talent — Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams — to put together the NFL’s 4th-best defense, allowing just 18.6 points against per game (a tremendous number in the modern NFL).

Nov 27, 2022; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; New York Jets wide receiver Garrett Wilson (17) celebrates his touchdown reception with teammates during the first quarter against the Chicago Bears at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

Despite some similarly impressive players on offense, the Jets were largely undone by shoddy quarterback play. Zach Wilson is a bust and Mike White did his utmost without fully entrenching himself as a true starting-level QB. In the end, the Jets averaged just 17.4 points per game, 29th in the NFL.

By the end of the season, the Jets had a 7-10 record, landing them in 4th in their division.

Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, and The Movie We’ve Seen Before

Bringing a surefire Hall of Fame QB to town — in this case, Mr. Rodgers — is certainly an aggressive move toward contention. Partnering someone of Rodgers’ ability with a top-tier defense should, in theory, allow the Jets to get into the postseason and be competitive once there.

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Jan 8, 2023; Green Bay, Wisconsin, USA; Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (12) reacts after an interception was nullified by a Detroit Lions penalty during the third quarter at Lambeau Field. Mandatory Credit: Mark Hoffman/Milwaukee Journal Sentinel via USA TODAY NETWORK

Far a long time, Rodgers tortured the Vikings’ fanbase, regularly delivering sensational performances that prompted voters to appoint him as the league’s MVP 4 times. He was instrumental in giving the Packers another Super Bowl and consistently allowed them to be among the NFC’s top teams.

Prickly personality aside, Rodgers is a wonderful football player. Is it thus a guarantee that he’ll be a major success in the Big Apple?

Last year, Russell Wilson made a similar voyage. He, too, was a highly-regarded NFC QB with a Super Bowl trophy. Like Rodgers, Wilson was believed to be the missing piece for a Broncos team with a loaded defense. Partnering Wilson with young weapons on offense like Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton would surely propel them into contention.

I, a dingus, even picked the Broncos to snag the Lombardi (d’oh!).

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Oct 23, 2022; Landover, Maryland, USA; Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports.

Fast forward into reality and the Broncos were far from being a contender. Denver finished with a 5-12 record and Wilson’s stats reflect his disastrous season. He had 3524 passing yards, 16 TDs, and 11 INTs. The touchdowns are a career low and so too was his 60.5 completion percentage.

Obviously, Rodgers is miles better than Wilson. The point is simply that it’s not unheard of for a veteran QB to struggle when changing teams. There has been all kinds of digital ink spilled outlining the parallels between Brett Favre’s and Aaron Rodgers’ jump from Green Bay to New York. Well, keep this reality in mind: Favre’s year with the Jets resulted in a 9-7 record, good for 3rd in the AFC East.

Alongside former Vikings Tyler Conklin and Chazz Surratt (and maybe Dalvin Cook?), Rodgers will be hoping to overcome divisional foes Miami, Buffalo, and New England. Very truly, that could be the toughest cluster of three teams in the NFL.

Nathaniel Hackett, the head coach in Denver before getting fired midseason, is now calling the shots for the New York offense. The star QB has always been outspoken about his respect for Hackett, but seeing the pair struggle to replicate their success from their Green Bay days won’t be totally unexpected.

The Jets and Vikings don’t see each other on the upcoming schedule. Or, at least, there’s no regular season date. Facing off in the Super Bowl would be a truly wild, difficult-to-believe possibility that nevertheless exists.

Editor’s Note: Information from Pro Football Reference helped with this piece.

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