Are The Vikings & Duke Shelley Heading for a 1-Year, Prove-It Deal?
K. Joudry
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One of the more confounding parts of Minnesota’s offseason is that they haven’t retained Duke Shelley. Or, at least, not yet. The young corner is still a free agent, capable of signing with any team in the NFL.
Brought to Minnesota after being cut by Chicago, Shelley had to scrape and claw just to get into the gameday lineup. From there, he received on-field opportunity largely due to injuries to Cameron Dantzler, Andrew Booth Jr., and Akayleb Evans. Once among the starters, though, Shelley fought to avoid going back to the bench. By the end of the year, he was successful.
The 26-year-old corner had a near monopoly on the snaps from Week 14 to 17. In the playoffs, he played 100% of the defensive snaps.
More impressive is what he did while on the field. In only 11 games (5 starts), Duke Shelley had 31 tackles, 1 INT, and 8 PDs. A mere 45.7% of passes into his coverage were completed. Those catches went for an average of 12.7 yards, but he posted a shutout in terms of touchdowns allowed. Collectively, quarterbacks had a very modest 55.2 passer rating when targeting him.
On PFF, he finished 4th overall among corners, one spot below Jalen Ramsey. Now, no one is claiming that he’s on par with perhaps the NFL’s CB1, but the PFF grade underscores an important reality: the corner had an impressive debut season for the Purple & Gold.
As a result, it’s been somewhat surprising to see the two sides unable to reach an agreement. Perhaps he’s not as good of a fit for Brian Flores, but wouldn’t the new DC want someone who’s incredible scrappy and competitive?
More likely, perhaps, is a disagreement over a contract. Coming off a great season, Shelley is likely looking for a strong deal. Can you blame him? The man has made less than $3 million in his NFL career. Locking in a strong deal makes a ton of sense.
Right now, a middle class 2023 cap charge for a corner is around the $3-$6 million range. Obviously, a lot of those single-season cap charges need to be understood within the context of a broader deal – Ramsey has a cap hit below $3 million in 2023 but above $27 million in 2024 – but as a general guideline it may still be a helpful measure.
Players like Patrick Peterson, Desmond King, Rasul Douglas, Byron Murphy, and Mike Hilton all find themselves in this range. Will Shelley find his name added to the list?
A deal that exceeds $3 million means Shelley will more than double his career earnings. Now, that doesn’t mean he should settle for a deal he doesn’t love. If he wants to pursue a larger deal coming off a great 2022, then all the power to him (sincerely). NFL careers are short, so players are wise to make money while they can.
That being said, one does wonder if Minnesota will hand out a massive deal. The team covets future flexibility and doesn’t have infinite resources (but can still add FAs). There is still need in the CB room, so adding Shelley to compete opposite Murphy makes a lot of sense.
The appeal for a 1-year, prove-it deal is that Shelley could still cash in in the future. Fast forward a year and Shelley will be 27, young enough to still have plenty of NFL snaps left in him. Another strong season would put him in a good position to snag a large contract (the downside, of course, is if he struggles in the upcoming year).
A 2019 6th-round selection, Duke Shelley will always be doubted due to his size, or lack thereof. Standing 5’9″ and weighing 176 pounds, Shelley doesn’t have the ideal build for a corner. Nevertheless, his tape shows that he’s capable of being a great player. Can he sustain that level of play across multiple seasons? That’s the question that may be complicating the negotiations.
In the end, it’s difficult to predict what will occur, but don’t be surprised if he comes back to Minnesota on a 1-year, prove-it deal.
Editor’s Note: Information from Pro Football Reference and Over the Cap helped with this piece.
