5 Theories Regarding the 2023 NFL Draft
Josh Frey
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The 2023 NFL Draft looks like one of the more interesting drafts in recent memory. There is very little certainty with what will happen for much of the first round, including what the Minnesota Vikings will do at No. 23. Today, we’re going to go over five theories regarding the 2023 NFL Draft and what we could see as the dust settles.
Something Goofy Will Happen Early in Round 1
Every year, for whatever reason, NFL teams talk themselves into using premium draft picks to select “sleepers” or “projects”. That’s how Travon Walker ended up going to Jacksonville with the No. 1 overall pick last year rather than, say, Aidan Hutchinson or Kayvon Thibodeaux. It’s also largely how Derek Stingley Jr. ended up being selected over Sauce Gardner by Houston, although that situation was a bit more complicated.
However, this is a trend with many of the past drafts, and it feels like it could happen once again in 2023, especially considering the players involved at the top of the draft.
Six of the top 12 picks are held by either the Houston Texans, Las Vegas Raiders, NFC champion Philadelphia Eagles, or NFC South teams. Two teams that have a knack for making some goofy picks in recent history, a team with virtually no immediate needs, and two teams that could really go in any direction because they have multiple needs. This has all the makings for a top 10 that has folks burning their mock drafts right as the selection process begins.
Is This Class Actually Good?
In past years, we’ve been spoiled with a number of prospects that are considered “sure things”. Think about 2021, in particular. Trevor Lawrence was the top QB, Penei Sewell and Rashawn Slater were at tackle. Jaycee Horn and Patrick Surtain were at CB. Ja’Marr Chase and Jaylen Waddle looked like stars at wide receiver.
This year, we’re three weeks away from the draft, and the guys that seem to be true potential stars are EDGE Will Anderson, DL Jalen Carter, RB Bijan Robinson, and CB Devon Witherspoon. It’s not an extensive list right now, and that might call into question the overall talent of this class.
Certainly, there will be players drafted in the first round and beyond that find roles that allow them to flourish in starting roles. That being said, we may have been spoiled over the past few years with players coming into the league and immediately being some of the best at their positions (i.e. Justin Jefferson, Christian Darrisaw). This year, teams may have to get a bit more creative with their prospects to give them roles that allow them to prosper.
The Vikings Won’t Fill Every Single Need
With the overall talent in mind, this is probably the most pertinent theory for Vikings fans. I wrote an article specifically laying this theory out last week, so if you haven’t seen it yet, check it out here. That theory, put simply, is the idea that Vikings fans may be set to go down a path towards heartbreak if they set their sights on a specific position in this class.
Frankly, the Vikings probably have the capital to make a move to get one or two immediate impact players at best, and the rest will be developmental projects. Currently, the likely positions of need for this team are the following:
- Cornerback
- Defensive line
- Guard
- Linebacker
- Quarterback
- Safety
- Wide Receiver
Reminder, the Vikings currently have five draft selections and only two that land within the top 100. It’s going to be tough to fill all these needs three weeks from now.
Brian Branch Makes a Ton of Sense at No. 23
So, if the Vikings can only fill a few of their draft needs this spring, who should they target with their first pick? Obviously, this varies depending on what Minnesota does with the 23rd overall pick. They could send it to a different team, trading either up or down. That being said, if they stick at No. 23, there’s one prospect that makes more sense right now than any other. That prospect is S Brian Branch out of Alabama.
Before anyone gets upset and clicks away from this because of a suggestion that the Vikings should go safety in back-to-back years, let’s clear something up: Branch isn’t just a safety. In fact, he played more snaps at slot corner than any other position in 2022 for the Crimson Tide. He also can step into the box and be a de facto linebacker as a blitzer.
Branch shouldn’t be boxed into the confines of being called a safety. Sure, when he gets drafted on April 27th, the ticker on the bottom of everyone’s TV screens will say ‘S Brian Branch’, and some people may make fun of the Vikings for drafting a safety in back-to-back years. Be prepared for that reality if he ends up in Minnesota, but just know, Branch is far more than just a safety.
Bijan Robinson Should Go Top 10
Over the past few years, the running back positions has been devalued by NFL teams to the point where it is very rare to see players at the position go in the first round. That being said, when they do go in the first round, more often than not these players become stars. Let’s take a look at the RBs taken in the first round since 2015:
- Naje Harris
- Travis Etienne
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire
- Josh Jacobs
- Saquon Barkley
- Rashad Penny
- Sony Michel
- Christian McCaffrey
- Ezekiel Elliott
- Melvin Gordon
There are certainly some names here that don’t belong (Edwards-Helaire, Penny, Michel), but outside of those three, it’s hard to argue that teams didn’t get exactly what they expected or more out of these running backs. Many expect Bijan Robinson to be the best back on this list other than perhaps Barkley and McCaffrey.
Robinson backs up these expectations with elite speed, balance, and he can even be a pass-catcher out of the backfield. So, if there’s a positive success rate with first-round running backs, this running back is considered one of the most talented (if not the single most talented) player in this class, and the class as a whole looks underwhelming, why not take a stab at an offense-changing player in the top 10?
Teams that could do something like this are the Atlanta Falcons at No. 8 or the Philadelphia Eagles at No. 10. Atlanta seems committed to Desmond Ridder at QB, and they have a number of talented players on the offensive side of the ball. They just need a consistent RB, and Robinson could take a ton of pressure off Ridder as he continues his development.
As for Philadelphia, it’s hard to find many needs on their roster right now, especially considering they managed to retain both James Bradberry and Darius Slay at corner. Their one true need right now actually may be running back, considering Miles Sanders now plays for the Carolina Panthers. Imagine what Robinson would be able to do running behind Philly’s offensive line playing in tandem with QB Jalen Hurts. They’d be the runaway favorites to repeat as NFC champs.
Overall, it’s hard to say how many of these actually could come to fruition this month when the draft takes place. It’s a hectic process, and no one ever gets it 100% right, but these are just a few of the things that I’ve considered throughout my analysis of prospects. Let us know your favorite draft theories on Facebook or Twitter!
Josh Frey is a Class of 2020 graduate of The College of Idaho with a bachelor’s degree in Creative Writing. When he’s not writing about the NFL, Josh enjoys running, gaming, or rooting for the Milwaukee Brewers and Bucks. Check out his Twitter account: @Freyed_Chicken.