Oberle’s Fact or Fiction: Justin Jefferson Should Receive Serious Consideration for NFL MVP
Joe Oberle
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Is this Statement Fact or Fiction:
Justin Jefferson Should Receive Serious Consideration for NFL MVP*
The short answer to this question is a resounding “yes!”
Justin Jefferson is having an All-Pro season and whether he is thrown the football or not, is affecting the way defenses attempt to stop the Vikings’ offense. He is the best player on a 10-3 team (tied for the second-best record in the entire league) that has a four-game lead in the NFC North Division. He is the focal point of every defensive coordinator in the league playing the Vikings—as they have double-covered him constantly yet he still makes plays that put his team in position to win football games. If you define the league Most Valuable Player as the one player a team cannot afford to be without to achieve the same success (isn’t that what WAR means???), then Jefferson is that player. He means as much or more to his team’s success than any player in the NFL.
The longer answer reaches the same conclusion. His stats bear out consideration for the award: he leads all receivers in the league in targets (Davante Adams is currently tied with Jefferson at 142), which connotes use; he leads the league in receiving yardage at 1,500 (ahead of Tyreek Hill by 40 yards) which connotes success; he is second in receptions (one behind Hill with 99); he is third in YAC—yards after the catch—with 498; and he is tied for second (with Stefon Diggs) in receiving first downs with 62 (two behind Hill).
Where he comes up short, perhaps, is in touchdowns scored: he is tied for 11th in the league with six (much to the chagrin of his fantasy football owners). But Jefferson has put the team in position to score numerous times without his number called in the Red Zone—so that his teammates such as Adam Thielen, Dalvin Cook, T.J. Hockenson, and K.J. Osborn can bring it over the line. The argument can be made that the Vikings aren’t 10th in Red Zone efficiency if JJ doesn’t get them there in the first place.
The problem facing Jefferson in being considered the league MVP is history. No wide receiver—even hall of famers Jerry Rice, Cris Carter, and Randy Moss included—has ever been named the MVP.
In fact, it is rare for a non-quarterback to be given the award. In the past 30 years, there have been just six non-quarterbacks given the award—and they have all been running backs. In fact, the last time it happened was in 2012 when the Vikings’ Adrian Peterson took home the prize. I asked him in the Vikings locker room that season what he thought of the award being one dominated by the quarterback position, and he was very animated in his response, saying that it should more resemble the college award (the Heisman Trophy) which considers all positions more readily.
The conventional wisdom that Jefferson may be battling is that a receiver needs a quarterback to aid him in playmaking more than a running back (throwing into traffic on time and accurately while under pressure is more difficult than handing the ball off behind a protected line). And that the quarterback has hands on the ball for nearly every offensive snap. Perhaps what voters need to consider, however, is that the NFL has become a decidedly passing league in recent times (making Peterson’s MVP even more of an anomaly) and the old idea of a dominant running back being a team’s most valuable asset has gone the way of the dodo or the drop-kick field goal. If you need any further evidence of it, just take a look at elite wideouts’ recent contract signings (and fear for how much the Vikings are going to have to pay Justin Jefferson next season).
But still there is that pesky fact that JJ is in no position to receive MVP consideration without a quarterback getting him the ball often. And, ironically enough, Jefferson’s QB, ‘ol Kirko “Chains” Cousins, is having a down year relative to recent times, statistically, but winning ballgames at a much higher rate. On the surface, it doesn’t seem to track. But perhaps there’s the rub. More than once, Jefferson has made catches that might not ordinarily be made by another receiver (“The Catch” against Buffalo comes to mind) and has “single-handedly” kept his teams in games where the defense might have let them down. Cousins is looking to Jefferson more than ever in his previous two seasons, and throwing him a lot more “50-50 balls” than he has in the past.
And sometimes JJ pulls his QB’s bacon out of the fire. That is not to say that Cousins isn’t making plays, too, it’s just that Jefferson often is making more. They say a quarterback often is responsible for elevating the play of the rest of the offense and even the team. Well, the case can be made that Jefferson’s play is doing that this season. And isn’t that the best way to define an MVP? Says here, that it should be this season—and Justin Jefferson merits consideration (and votes) for the award.
*Editor’s Note: The editor was inspired by a hockey fact of fiction piece he previously read. He contacted Joe Oberle to get his take on some Vikings football. The veteran writer offers his opinion and rationale why a statement is either fact or fiction. Readers can find him on Twitter @joeoberle.
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