Adam Thielen Finds Himself in Some Elite Company

Four Players That Could Be Playing Their Final Regular Season Game in a Vikings Uniform
November 28, 2021; Santa Clara, California, USA; Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Adam Thielen (19) scores a touchdown against San Francisco 49ers free safety Jimmie Ward (1) during the first quarter at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

I won’t need to convince too many Vikings fans that Adam Thielen is a tremendous receiver.

Obviously, recent years have been a touch more modest, both due to age and injury. He has spent his entire career with Mike Zimmer, so it’s fair to wonder if playing for Kevin O’Connell will unlock late-career growth. One thing that’s going to help him is his capacity to make highly-contested catches.

On NFL.com, Nick Shook breaks down the Top 10 best receivers when it comes to the catch rate over expected. Here is the definition the article provides: “it was all about separating players via Next Gen Stats’ catch rate over expected (CROE) metric, which measures the difficulty of completion using a number of factors: separation from nearest defender, depth of target, speed, etc. Players boasting higher CROEs have consistently made difficult, unlikely catches more often than the rest.” So, a player getting his name in this list means he’s been consistently been making difficult grabs.

Coming in at 10th is Vikings veteran Adam Thielen, someone who “makes a repeat appearance on this ranking.” What’s most impressive is that Thielen is the best in the NFL when it comes to making unlikely catches in the red zone: “Thielen has been doing this for a while now; since 2018, he owns a CROE of +11.4 percent outside the numbers and +25.7 CROE in the red zone. Those two marks are good for second and first among all qualifying pass catchers in that span.”

We all know that Thielen has become fantastic at scoring touchdowns. His compete and focus allow him to be the NFL’s best receiver at catching balls he shouldn’t catch when Minnesota is in the red zone.

Minnesota will need a lot of things to go right in 2022 to result in a playoff spot. Having their veteran WR2 stay on the field so he can continue making difficult catches for TDs helps keep defenses honest. If they load up on Dalvin Cook or Justin Jefferson, Thielen has a great chance at beating his man. A healthy Thielen should easily eclipse 10 TDs.

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