Blitzing Vikings May Struggle to Stifle Aaron Rodgers, Packers
K. Joudry
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A lot of purple fans are looking for some blitzing Vikings.
During the past couple games, we’ve seen that desire come to fruition. Ed Donatell has changed up his approach, leaning into more man coverage and extra aggression on passing downs. Unfortunately, the results have been somewhat mixed; the two most recent games have been far from dominant.
As Week 17 nears, the Vikings’ coaching staff is putting the finishing touches on their strategy for the Green Bay game. At various points, they’ll surely send an extra man or two, but one wonders about the effectiveness of sending too many blitzes.
Blitzing Vikings and The Aaron Rodgers Challenge
Paul Bretl – who does a nice job of covering the rival Green Bay Packers – recently published a piece analyzing Miami’s blitzing from the Week 16 game. Bretl argues that the Dolphins actually made life easier for Rodgers. Take a look at some of his argument:
Overall, Rodgers was alright against Miami, with a rough first half followed by an improved second half. However, of Rodgers’ 238 total passing yards, 192 came while being blitzed, as did his one touchdown pass. This was the second-most yards Rodgers has thrown for when blitzed over the last five seasons.
He goes on:
When you have a veteran quarterback of Rodgers’ caliber, who more often than not likely knows where the blitz is coming from and who he should get the ball to quickly in those instances, it’s a simple game of pitch and catch for him—as illustrated by his numbers.
This, again, goes to show the importance of defenses being able to create pressure with their defensive front. Like every other quarterback, Rodgers’ efficiency goes down when under duress, but being able to create that pressure without blitzing leaves an additional defender in coverage.
Bretl is exactly right. The numbers game is crucial.
Defensive coordinators want to have a +1 when confronting a play from the offense. If Aaron Jones is running to the right with a blocker in front of him, Ed Donatell will be looking to ensure he not only has a man for the blocker, but a free man to go in for the tackle.
On passing downs, Donatell would be very pleased to merely send 4 pass rushers. That’d mean the Packers are keeping 5 offensive linemen to block and a QB to distribute the football. The end result is 5 potential options to throw the ball to and 7 defenders to provide coverage. That’s a +2 advantage, a scenario that is appealing for defensive-minded coaches.
Of course, having added defenders in coverage doesn’t mean too much if those 5 blockers can easily handle the 4 pass rushers. The key, as Bretl suggests, rests in making Rodgers uncomfortable on a consistent basis. Forcing him into rushed decisions is critical, especially since Donatell’s defense can be so dependent on the turnover.
Thankfully, Minnesota does have high-end talent up front. Danielle Hunter leads the team with 10.5 sacks and Za’Darius Smith is next with 10. Between them is Dalvin Tomlinson, a massive DT who doesn’t get enough credit for his ability to get after the QB. All 3 players are capable of wreaking havoc. Ideally, we’ll even see multiple put together dominant days; we have to assume Smith is going to be super motivated.
If the front 4 can’t get the job done, Donatell may feel compelled to send an extra man or two. In that scenario, three things need to occur: 1) the pressure needs to arrive quickly; 2) the pressure needs to come with some unexpectedness; 3) Donatell needs to attack the solution that Rodgers comes up with.
Don’t let that third point get lost in the shuffle. If #12 sees blitz and knows his solution is to hit Jones in the flats, then Donatell needs to ensure there is a man attacking the flats immediately after the ball is snapped (see the above video for an example).
That’s where being a defensive coach is like playing chess. Show a problem, understand what the offense’s solution will be, and then undermine that solution. The best defensive coaches know how to follow this process.
Game Preview
Green Bay is going to challenge Minnesota. I can’t say for certain whether the Packers are truly back to their normal level of play, but I’m reasonably confident that we’ll see a better effort than we did in the Week 1 game. Both teams feel like they need to win this game as the playoffs near.
After 15 games, Rodgers stands at 3331 passing yards, 24 TDs, and 11 INTs. He has a 64.8 completion percentage and a 91.3 passer rating. In other words, the veteran hasn’t been his usually dominant self in 2022.
Donatell’s task rests in ensuring that Rodgers doesn’t get into a good groove. He has only thrown 3 TD passes once this season, and that occurred during Green Bay’s most impressive win of the season (Week 10 vs. the Cowboys). In fact, the current 3-game winning streak features Rodgers only throwing for a single, lonely touchdown in each game. However, he has only been sacked 5 times over these 3 games.
The broader point, Vikings fans, is that Rodgers is playing decently and isn’t confronting too much pressure. Minnesota’s task rests in ratcheting up the pressure so that GB’s veteran QB puts forth a clunker that mirrors his game in Week 1.
Editor’s Note: Information from Pro Football Reference helped with this piece.
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