Minnesota’s Path Toward Resting Their Starters in Week 18
K. Joudry
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Minnesota’s path toward securing the top spot in the NFC is still open, but unlikely. The Eagles would need to drop their next pair of games as the Vikings win their next couple. So, not altogether unfathomable, but also not one that we can assume is a foregone conclusion.
As far as I can tell, it’s far likelier that Minnesota will look toward Week 18 as an opportunity to get their starters some extra rest. The key to rest rests in removing the significance of that trip to Soldier Field.
Essentially, the Vikings would be more inclined to put players like Kirk Cousins, Justin Jefferson, Danielle Hunter, Dalvin Tomlinson, and Harrison Smith on the bench if the outcome of that Bears game didn’t do anything for the playoff seeding. How can that happen?
Minnesota’s Path to Week 18 Rest
There are three things that need to occur in Week 17 for Kevin O’Connell to feel more comfortable resting his starters (for the record, I’m making some assumptions; I haven’t spoken to O’Connell about the situation):
- A Minnesota win over Green Bay
- A Philadelphia win over New Orleans
- A San Francisco loss to Las Vegas
If these three things don’t take place, then there’s a decent chance we’ll see the Vikings trot out their starters in Week 18. However, seeing all three take place could plausibly lead to some rest. Let’s unpack the reasons why.
First off, we’ll note that an Eagles win officially closes off the possibility of finishing as the conference’s best team. The incentive to keep pushing higher is thus nullified. The highest this team could go would be 2nd overall. Previously, that would have been good enough to get a first-round bye, but the playoff adjustment leaves each conference with just a single bye.
C’est la vie.
Now, eliminating the opportunity to move up doesn’t eliminate the possibility of any movement at all. The team could still move down in the standings. That’s where the 49ers loss factors into the equation (alongside a Vikings win).
Currently, Kyle Shanahan’s team is a game behind Kevin O’Connell’s team. They could grab hold of the #2 seed by continuing to win and by Minnesota stumbling (a tie between the two teams would involve SF getting the #2 spot given their better in-conference record). However, time isn’t on their side since there are only 2 games left. If the 49ers lose and the Vikings win in Week 17, then Minnesota would have a 2-game lead with only a single week left.
The simple math would tell us that the outcome of Week 18 couldn’t possibly alter the standings. Even the worst case scenario – a 49ers victory alongside a Vikings defeat – would merely shrink the margin down to a single game. The regular season would be finished, though, so Minnesota would head into the final dance as the #2 team.
Which Players Would Play More?
The 2022 season has been a gruelling one, chock full of super competitive games and close finishes. Many of the team’s best players would likely welcome some extra time to nurse the bumps and bruises.
Players like the recently activated Ty Chandler could see some work. Perhaps Christian Darrisaw could take a game off, allowing Oli Udoh to get back in at LT. There’d be no need to rush Garrett Bradbury back, and the option would be there to have Kirk Cousins take a few less hits while seeing what Nick Mullens could do in the O’Connell offense.
One also has to think that Brian Asamoah – beloved by Vikings fans far and wide – gets more of a chance to play. Josh Metellus certainly deserves more snaps, and I’ve been intrigued by Esezi Otomewo’s play up front. What about another shot for Luiji Vilain, the young Canadian edge rusher?
The broader point, valued reader, is that there is an opportunity for Week 18 rest but several things need to go right in Week 17. At the very least, we’ll all be hoping for a Vikings victory over the Packers.
Stay tuned.
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