An Educated Guess at Justin Jefferson’s Next Contract
K. Joudry
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After this season, Justin Jefferson will be eligible to sign a new contract. The 23-year-old phenom is heading for a massive raise. It has only been two seasons and yet it’s clear that he’s already among the game’s best receivers (and he has plans on being the best). As a result, many have wondered how rich Justin Jefferson’s next contract will be.
Recently, Spotrac published a piece where they outlined the “money tiers” for the league’s preeminent receivers. They place Jefferson in the “Rookie Pending” category, providing this blurb as they make an educated guess for his next deal:
The 23-year old can’t even be evaluated against his current aged peers from a mathematical standpoint. His numbers align with (or surpass) the best WRs in the game, regardless of age or experience. Jefferson becomes extension eligible after 2022, currently projecting to a 4 year, $104M contract in our system.
The math wizards in the crowd will tell you that the projected deal would have a $26 million per season average. Justin Jefferson’s hypothetical contract would thus put him among the league’s highest-paid receivers. Per Spotrac, only four receivers – Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams, DeAndre Hopkins, and Cooper Kupp – have a higher yearly average.
Now, the APY often means very little. The high averages get circulated in the headlines but teams can often find a way to move on from a player without needing to pay the gargantuan yearly total. The key rests in the guarantees (and, of course, how those guarantees work). Jefferson will likely be looking to mirror his QB by securing huge guarantees.
The same Spotrac piece includes Adam Thielen, the WR2 in Minnesota. In their mind, Thielen is now playing on a year-by-year basis:
Thielen restructured his deal this March for cap purposes, but it did little to secure the 2 years, $30M remaining after the 2022 season. He’s a bubble candidate from here out.
The issue with Thielen isn’t talent, or lack thereof. The issue rests in the veteran’s increasingly lengthy injury history. If he’s able to stay healthy for most of the season, there’s a good chance he can stick around. One thing to monitor, though, is if the team looks to sync the impending Jefferson extension with a move away from Thielen. Doing so would allow them to trim money from the veteran to open some more room for the still-ascending young receiver.
Regardless of what happens with Thielen, Justin Jefferson’s contract will be very interesting during the offseason. Another sensational year – something around 100 catches, 1600 yards, and 10 TDs – would remove any doubt that he’s firmly among the game’s best receivers. Kwesi Adofo-Mensah will thus need to negotiate a massive deal to keep his best player in Minnesota.
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