Mike Zimmer’s Job Security Probably Hinges on the 2021 Offensive Line
Dustin Baker
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Note: This article originally appeared on our flagship site, VikingsTerritory.com.
The Minnesota Vikings win percentage since Mike Zimmer joined the team is a commendable one, placing eighth-best in the NFL with a .576 win ratio. In terms of wins and losses and playoff success since 2014, the Vikings are nearly exact bedfellows with the Baltimore Ravens. Minnesota is 64-47-1 (.576) during the last seven seasons whereas the Ravens check in at 67-45 (.598). Baltimore is 2-4 in the postseason since 2014 while Minnesota is 2-3.
Expectations were high for Mike Zimmer’s Vikings in 2020. Each season since about 2016, Minnesota classifies itself as a “win now” team, ensuring standards are high with “Super Bowl or bust” as the mindset. But 2020 rapidly decayed as the team lost five of six games to kick off the season, creating hot-seat chatter for the 64-year-old Zimmer. The Vikings ultimately missed the postseason by a single game. A win over the Dallas Cowboys or Chicago Bears would have allowed access for the Vikings to playoffs. No cigar.
So, here the team is, once again, assigned Super Bowl expectations. And the offensive line — a totally revamped version — is likely the barometer of success for Zimmer’s future employment.
Defensive Supremacy Restored
The 2020 season died early on primarily because the defense stunk. It was flat-out no good. The team uncharacteristically did not tackle well, and the pass rush was seen less than the Loch Ness monster. Both of these traits were unbecoming of Zimmerian football.
Well, Zimmer’s pal, general manager Rick Spielman, fixed the problem — on paper. Via free agency, the Vikings added Patrick Peterson (CB), Dalvin Tomlinson (DT), Mackensie Alexander (CB), Nick Vigil (LB), Stephen Weatherly (DE), and Xavier Woods (S)– all players slated to make an impact. In fact, every single one of Spielman’s free-agent acquisitions is defensively themed.
Unless Zimmer forgot how to foster a brilliant defense, Minnesota’s 2021 defense should be leaps and bounds more profitable than last year’s trash. Injuries shook the foundation of Zimmer’s defense, so 2021 will be a litmus test on his current defensive prowess. Either injuries matter — or Zimmer doesn’t have “it” anymore.
Not Much Changed on Offense
The weaponry on offense didn’t change much at all. Spielman subtracted left tackle Riley Reiff and tight end Kyle Rudolph for cap purposes. But the red meat is still on the plate. Justin Jefferson will seek to build on his star-studded rookie campaign. Dalvin Cook arguably has about 2-3 years left in his physical prime (and he was marvelous in 2020). Vikings long-timer Adam Thielen could be scheduled for a performance decline any year, but Jefferson’s mere presence should free up the Minnesota State product for continued stardom. Too, Thielen’s hands are the signature of his toolbag, so his impact on the Vikings could persist longer than traditional wide receivers.
Kirk Cousins posted the best numbers of his nine-year career in 2020. With 4,265 passing yards and 35 touchdowns, Minnesota should have more than enough passing production to actionize an offense that is generally a run-first operation. If the Vikings can’t succeed with a quarterback in Cousins that scripts 35 touchdowns in a season, how the hell would a 35-touchdown season from Kellen Mond be any different?
OL = Elephant in the Room
The purple elephant in the room — a mammal that never leaves the damn room — is the offensive line. Year after year, game after game — the Vikings trot out some paper-mâché offensive line that often inspires cringes and laughter. To be sure, there are stretches of games when Minnesota’s offensive lines appear competent, but the prosperity rarely persists.
Spielman does not ignore the problem, though. Don’t let anybody tell you he does such a thing. Inside the last four NFL drafts, the Vikings boss man has added an entire startable offensive line with 3rd-Round-or-higher draft capital. Those men? Christian Darrisaw (1st Round, 2021), Ezra Cleveland (2nd Round, 2020), Garrett Bradbury (1st Round, 2019), Wyatt Davis (3rd Round, 2021), and Brian O’Neill (2nd Round, 2018). It is not the norm for a team to spend this much draft capital on the offensive trenches in successive years, but the Vikings have done just that. No other NFL team has done such OL work in drafts since 2018.
Therefore, consider this the last stand for Zimmer and OL chatter. All the group has to produce is an average result. The Vikings almost finished .500 in 2020 with an offensive line that ranked 29th in the NFL for pass protection. Imagine the output if pass-blocking was mediocre — like 15th-best in the business. In 2020, Cousins and Co. gained the third-most yards per game leaguewide. That should spike as the pass protection improves.
If it’s “more of the same” from the offensive trenches, well, that would likely indicate that the Vikings are not cut out for playoff success. And Zimmer cannot afford another underwhelming season.