How Harrison Smith Can Reach the Hall of Fame
Dustin Baker
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15 players for the Minnesota Vikings are enshrined in Canton, Ohio, as members of the Pro Football Hall of Fame. Adrian Peterson will be the 16th if he ever retires, which could take a while. Most of the Vikings Hall of Fame inductees are from the era that the team frequented the Super Bowl and rightfully so.
Vikings safety Harrison Smith was an All-Pro selection in 2017 and has been elected to five Pro Bowls. His supremacy at the safety position is as obvious to Minnesotans as snow falling in January. Smith is respected nationally, but it is difficult to adjudicate whether the praise is lavish enough.
Since joining the Vikings in 2012, Harrison Smith ranks as follows among NFL safeties:
- 1st — Interceptions
- 2nd — Sacks
- 2nd — Quarterback Hits
- 3rd — Tackles
- 3rd — Tackles for Loss
- 4th — Fumble Recoveries
- 4th — Touchdowns
- 6th — Passes Defended
These accomplishments and this pace brush the perimeter of Hall of Fame discussions, but Smith does not have a concrete path to Canton at this moment. Meaning — if he retired today, he would not be outfitted in a coveted gold jacket.
What would it take for Smith to get into the Pro Football Hall of Fame?
The Longevity Method
This can also be fittingly titled the Brian Dawkins Method.
Former Philadelphia Eagles and Denver Broncos free safety Brian Dawkins played until age 38. He was elite in his prime and played admirably to his date of retirement. Dawkins was also a four-time All-Pro selectee and a nine-time Pro Bowler.
Harrison Smith has his work cut out for him if this is the measuring stick.
Smith is 32. This would theoretically give Smith seven more seasons to nab three more All-Pro nods and four more Pro Bowl trips. Of course, this argument is predicated on colossal undertakings. It is very straightforward to conjure All-Pro and Pro Bowls hypotheticals in an analysis such as this. It is immensely difficult for a player to go do the work on Sundays well into his 30s and notch these achievements.
But Dawkins did it. If Harrison Smith followed in these fanciful footsteps, this is a plausible route to Canton. It just takes a clean bill of health, outright defiance of Father Time, and some luck.
Win a Super Bowl
Sign VikingLand up for this one, right?
Contemporaries Troy Polamalu and Ed Reed have relatively similar trajectories to Harrison Smith in terms of statistics. This is a humongous compliment to Harrison Smith and an equally grand testament to Smith’s nine years of production.
But these men, Polamalu and Reed, have Super Bowl rings — Harrison Smith does not. If the Vikings could have hosted Super Bowl LII against the New England Patriots and knocked them off as the Philadelphia Eagles did, the scope of this article would be markedly different.
There are pathways to Canton for Smith other than a Lombardi trophy hoist, but this is probably the most ironclad method. Hall of Famer voters love championship accolades and fans love championships. So, it’s simple. The Vikings should just go ahead and win a Super Bowl.
For the first time since the mid-2000s, the Vikings have continuity at the quarterback position. If Drew Brees, Tom Brady, or Ben Roethlisberger are indicators, Minnesota has its best chance yet to win a Super Bowl this year or soon. In doing so, Harrison Smith’s case for the Hall of Fame would become much more realizable.
Continued-Elite-Play Method
This is similar to the Brian Dawkins Method, but there are some differences. This method is more attainable.
All things considered, it is unlikely that Harrison Smith earns three more All-Pro selections and four more Pro Bowls. Not everyone can be Brian Dawkins. But if Smith was able to perform at his current level until age 35 or 36, he may have a presentable case for the Canton judges. His performance to date is not wildly out of the realm of Hall of Fame candidacy, it just needs more time and sustainability. A strong showing in the next four to six seasons might be enough to slip through the back door of the building in Canton.
Here’s the rub: Smith cannot have the typical decline in the next few seasons that virtually all hard-hitting safeties encounter. This means he must avoid injury and not shows signs of efficiency deterioration. Thus far, Smith has shown very few signs of any production drop-off. His numbers and his leadership are a massive component of what makes head coach Mike Zimmer’s defense [usually] fearsome.
For this method to materialize, Smith basically needs to be the same caliber of player he is now — for longer.
Join a Dynasty Method
Harrison Smith will be a free agent after this season — unless he extends with Minnesota this summer. The Vikings front office can choose to make him a lifer, let him shop around other franchises, or trade him beforehand. Emotionally, Vikings loyalists are enormously invested in option one, but business decisions are, well, business decisions.
Should Smith exit Minnesota via trade or free agency, a shrewd strategy on his behalf would be to join an elite NFL franchise. Up until 2020, the New England Patriots are the type of franchise that would make sense. Now, a team more apropos for ring-chasing in the Kansas City Chiefs.
A team that is young and balanced on both sides of the ball like the Cleveland Browns or Buffalo Bills could be matched for Smith’s services if he went ring-hunting in 2022. From there, if Smith chose the right team and won some championships, his Hall of Fame case would be bolstered.
You just don’t know, though, if the Vikings are on the cusp of a Super Bowl run or if Smith would even “pick” the correct franchise to join in free agency. Nevertheless, Super Bowl wins, no matter the team affiliation, would get him closer to Canton.
The Prayer Method
This is the most unlikely of the methods for Harrison Smith to reach the Hall of Fame.
That is — Smith would play out his career in Minnesota or elsewhere. The curve that most players follow with performance regression and injury also applies to Smith in this scenario. He remains decent but clearly a shell of his former self. And then he calls it quits at age 34 or 35.
Unfortunately, if you believe in numbers and historical precedent, this is the most likely outcome for his career. This script would cast Smith in a light, unlike Adrian Peterson where Smith is, in fact, not bionic and does not play well past his prime. He, to put it bluntly, just diminishes.
Thankfully, Vikings faithful are left with memories of his prime performance and have the talking points in hand to defend him eternally. Each year the Hall of Fame chatter would commence, and Vikings fans could only blurt Smith’s name in hopes the Canton judges would listen.