Can Jefferson and Thielen Repeat as Top-10 Fantasy WRs?
Josh Frey
|
In 2020, Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen finished the year ranked sixth and tenth in fantasy points, respectively. The duo helped carry an offense that ended up fourth in total yards and was a massive reason why the 2020 year didn’t fall completely on the Vikings’ faces. 2021 brings high expectations from fans, and even higher from the star wide receivers themselves. Will they be able to repeat the success they found alongside each other this season though?
Looking Back at 2020
The Vikings wide receiver tandem played almost perfectly together throughout the 2020 season. Jefferson was a big target in the open field while Thielen thrived in the red zone. Following a two week stretch as a backup to begin the season, Jefferson came into his own over the final 14 games of the season, tallying seven games with double-digit targets. In that same stretch of games, Thielen also posted 12 of his receiving TDs.
One major reason for the duo’s ability to work in harmony was the fact that there were so many targets available to the two of them. Chad Beebe was the Vikings WR3 and recorded just 20 catches. Kyle Rudolph has usually been a big factor in the red zone for Minnesota, but last season was a major step back for the veteran TE.
2021 Preview
Going into the 2021 season, ESPN predicts that both Jefferson and Thielen will take a minor hit from their 2020 totals. Jefferson is projected to drop from 274.2 points to to 259.8 while Thielen’s numbers are projected to go from 254 points to 241.2. There are a couple sound reasons for this.
First of all, Dede Westbrook should be the favorite to win the WR3 job as of now. Westbrook may have only totaled one target over two games in 2020, but in 2019 he had 101 targets and caught 66 balls for 660 yards. That is far more production than Beebe who only had 30 targets last year.
Secondly, Kyle Rudolph will not be taking snaps at tight end anymore. This job goes to Irv Smith (who we will talk about more in the future), and he is a favorite to have a breakout season. Smith was an end zone threat in limited time during 2020, which would inevitably take some touchdowns away from Thielen this year.
The two receivers also have some serious competition this year from other teams. One player specifically to watch in this race is Washington’s Terry McLaurin. Over the past two years, McLaurin has totaled 227 targets, good for 25% of the total targets in that time. Not to mention, this year he finally has a quarterback that has done well throwing the ball downfield. Ryan Fitzpatrick will make sure the speedy McLaurin gets plenty of deep looks in 2021, thus amplifying his fantasy value.
Final Thoughts
Should the Vikings duo not put together as high of point totals this season, it doesn’t mean they are any less talented. The odds are simply stacked against them. Minnesota is always going to be aa run-first offense with Dalvin Cook, and frankly even though it might not seem like it yet thus far into preseason, the offensive weaponry is superior to what it was last season. If Irv Smith Jr. and Tyler Conklin create a presence in the end zone, that severely limits Thielen’s fantasy value. If Dede Westbrook comes in and takes some targets away from Jefferson, that hampers his value as well.
Overall, the duo is well worth considering for your squad, though. Jefferson is still a WR1 due to his big play threat, and while a 31-year-old Thielen may take a step back in the offense, he is still very worthy of WR2 considerations.