Bleacher Report Taps Vikings 2021 ‘Breakout Player’
Dustin Baker
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On Friday, Bleacher Report published a 32-team breakdown of each player that will rise to stardom for the first time in 2021. The analysis was peppered with expected names like Trevor Lawrence for the Jacksonville Jaguars, Kyle Pitts for the Atlanta Falcons, and Cam Akers for the Los Angeles Rams.
For the Minnesota Vikings, this arguably could have broken a few ways. Cameron Dantzler, a second-year cornerback from Mississippi State, might have received the “honor” as the 22-year-old hopes to build on a 2020 rookie campaign that was tremendous. Among all rookie CBs, Dantzler ranked as the NFL’s best per Pro Football Focus.
If not Dantzler, Bleacher Report‘s Gary Davenport may have selected one of the rookie offensive linemen — Christian Darrisaw or Wyatt Davis. Both men were scooped out of the 2021 NFL Draft after a fortuitous trade executed by Vikings general manager Rick Spielman with the New York Jets. Darrisaw and Davis are theorized to start out of the gate, ensuring that Minnesota does not commence another season with a patchwork offensive line plan.
But Davenport “played it safe” with his breakout hypothesis. For the Vikings, the player that will emerge from a cocoon is tight end Irv Smith Jr. Here’s why per Bleacher Report:
“Over two years in Minnesota, tight end Irv Smith Jr. hasn’t lit up the stat sheet. The 22-year-old has yet to catch 40 passes or top 400 yards in a season. There’s ample reason to believe that could change this year. Smith may not have a ton of catches, but he has taken advantage of the targets he’s received. He has hauled in over 73 percent of his targets, and per Noah Cierzan of Zone Coverage the second-round pick out of Alabama has recorded a rating of 134.4 on passes he was targeted on. The 6’2″, 235-pounder has dropped all of two passes in two years. He also won’t turn 23 until August, so he’s only scratching the surface. With Kyle Rudolph no longer in the Twin Cities, Smith is the unquestioned No. 1 tight end for the Vikes. And with Adam Thielen and phenom Justin Jefferson drawing coverage away from Smith, getting open shouldn’t be a problem. He might post better numbers in 2021 than he did in his first two years combined.“
The number-one-with-a-bullet rationale as to why Davenport may have nailed this assumption is the exodus of Kyle Rudolph to the New York Giants. Truth be told, Smith probably could have been pegged as a TE1 in 2019 and 2020 and thrived to the utmost from the onset. However, due to contractual obligations and emotional ties, Minnesota remained loyal to Rudolph for a couple of more seasons.
And it paid off.
Rudolph grabbed a game-winning touchdown pass from Kirk Cousins in the 2019 NFC Wildcard Playoff game. That alone may have been worth the price for admission in targeting Rudolph more often than Smith amid the last two years.
But just as the team seeks to place the pandemic season firmly in the rearview mirror — the 7-9 finish is considered a stain on head coach Mike Zimmer’s resume — the time is now for Smith. Rudolph joins an upstart Giants offense, dependent on the make-or-break maturation of quarterback Daniel Jones. Meanwhile, Smith takes the big job in Minnesota at TE1. He will not battle a longstanding and revered commodity in Rudolph, nor will Smith be deprived of redzone targets — Rudolph was bees-to-honey for those situations with the Vikings.
There was a glimpse of life-after-Rudolph in 2020, too. Smith sat on the TE1 throne for the final four games of 2020 when Rudolph was injured, disabling his appearance down the stretch. Smith was targeted 20 times in those four contests, nabbing 183 receiving yards and three touchdowns. In Smith’s departure from TE2, Tyler Conklin slid into the role and also performed admirably.
The best process that will enable Smith to impact games more significantly is a bittersweet one. The Vikings may or may not employ a reputable WR3 in 2021, so Smith might just get WR3 targets by default. For several years, Minnesota glosses over the WR3 rung on the depth chart, employing mundane talents like Olabisi Johnson, Chad Beebe, and Laquon Treadwell.
For now, the WR3 gig would belong to the aforementioned Johnson or Beebe. If no free-agent signings change the standing of WR3 — or if rookie wide receiver Ihmir Smith-Marsette does not climb the depth chart ranks rapidly — Smith should be on the menu for a boatload of WR3 targets, causing the Davenport prediction to reach fruition.