Looking at What Lies Ahead for WR Contracts, Adam Thielen’s Extension May Be a Bargain
Josh Frey
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Over the past few weeks, Minnesota Vikings fans have gotten to sit back with popcorn in hand and watch the circus that has been the Green Bay Packers offseason. Both Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams do not seem keen on sticking around for too much longer, but for different reasons. Rodgers wants to be more involved, meanwhile Adams simply wants his money.
With Kirk Cousins under center, the Vikings probably don’t have to worry too much about their quarterback going awol and threatening to retire and host Jeopardy!, and their star receiver is signed through the 2024 season. All is good in the land of Purple and Gold. In fact, the extension that Thielen signed in 2019 may prove to be team friendly by the time it is over.
Let’s go back to Adams, though. This week, he has made it clear that he wants to be the highest paid receiver in the NFL next season. The most money currently being paid to a receiver is the $27.25 million annual average that Arizona is giving DeAndre Hopkins. This means that Adams’ next contract may be in the neighborhood of $30+ million; possibly doubling the amount that Thielen will make through 2024.
After a restructure in March, Thielen’s 2021 cap hit is a mere $5.9 million. After that, he carries a hit of $16.9 million in ‘22, $17.9 million in ‘23, and $18.5 million in ‘24.
Comparing Thielen to the Money-Makers
Similarly to Adams, Thielen has developed into a dangerous red zone target. In fact, nearly 34% of Thielen’s targets last season occurred in the red zone. This was second in the NFL to, you guessed it, Adams. In that spirit, let’s do a quick comparison of the two in terms of red zone production. Since 2019, here’s how they stack up:
Adams: 46 targets, 35 receptions, 210 yards, 17 TDs (26 games)
Thielen: 25 targets, 21 receptions, 158 yards, 16 TDs (25 games)
If there’s anything that stands out, it’s that Adams has simply gotten more opportunities than Thielen. Meanwhile, Thielen has nearly matched the production of Adams on far greater efficiency. Considering that Kyle Rudolph has been on the team, it makes sense that the targets would be split between them. Not to mention the fact that one of the best running backs is on the squad as well in Dalvin Cook.
All things considered, Thielen has been a touchdown machine since 2018. Here is how Thielen stacks up alongside the current top-five paid receivers since that 2018 season:
Adam Thielen- 29 TDs (41 games)
DeAndre Hopkins- 24 TDs (47 games)
Keenan Allen- 20 TDs (46 games)
Amari Cooper- 20 TDs (47 games)
Michael Thomas- 18 TDs (39 games)
Julio Jones- 17 TDs (40 games)
Like I said, touchdown machine. The only real knock you can have on Thielen here is he should be even more dominant as a scorer, but has been held back by durability. Even so, Thielen has the fourth-most receiving touchdowns since 2018 behind only Adams, Tyreek Hill, and Mike Evans. Not too bad for the 14th-highest paid receiver.
Closing Thoughts
Don’t get me wrong, none of this was meant to knock the accomplishments of the aforementioned receivers. This exercise was done simply to show the value of the Thielen contract. It is just another example of Rick Spielman and Co. working the salary cap and keeping money available.
I would also be remiss to mention that Thielen has always seemed to put the team first. his restructuring of this year’s salary back in March is just the latest example of that. As he ages, Thielen’s overall targets may begin to go down. However, if he can maintain this production in the red zone, this contract will look like the Vikings got it on clearance.