Point-Counterpoint: 3+ Reasons The Packers Are Poised For A Big Year! Or Not…
Giotto Troia
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The Green Bay Packers are a perennial force in the NFC but rely on a core group of guys. We’re looking at their best-case scenario, assuming all starters remain unscathed throughout the regular season, obviously, most important of whom is the highest paid player in the history of the NFL. Last year, without Aaron Rodgers, the Packers dropped 8 of 11 games after starting 4-1 en route to a 7-9 record. Clearly the team lives and dies by Aaron’s health. In addition to a healthy QB, there’s a multitude of reasons to believe the Packers are poised for a successful 2018 campaign, something the Vikings should be concerned about as there may be playoff implications.
*Giotto Troia is making points and Jordan Hawthorn is rebutting them.
Point 1 (Giotto Troia)
Green Bay has one of the easiest schedules in the NFL and definitely the easiest in the NFC North. Starting 3-0 is usually a good sign, in fact teams who start 3-0 have made the playoffs over 75% of the time since 1990, but the packers have a real chance to go 4-0 to start the season. They play 3 of their first 4 games at home (Bears, Vikings, at Washington, Buffalo). Without too much analysis, you can chalk up the W vs the Bears, at Washington and vs Buffalo. They also have a good chance to beat the Vikings.
The Vikings offensive unit is still struggling to find great chemistry in its passing game and have O-line issues, both signs that the Packers defensive unit should be able to capitalize and cause a big difference in time of possession. As the season progresses the Vikings will surely pose a bigger offensive threat. With that being said, going 3-1 to start should be expected and going 4-0 wouldn’t come as a surprise. The packers also have one of the best stretches to end the season playing 3 domed teams in the frozen tundra in December (Arizona, Atlanta, at Chicago, at NYJ, Detroit). Another stretch where it’s possible to go 5-0 and end the season making a final push into the playoffs as a top seed.
Counterpoint 1 (Jordan Hawthorn)
The Packers do have an easy schedule to start, but the Bears are poised to be a completely different team this year with the additions of Aaron Lynch, Khalil Mack, Roquan Smith, Allen Robinson, Taylor Gabriel, and Trey Burton. The Bears could steal a win from the Packers here, knocking the Packers down to 2-2 to start the year. The Vikings may have o-line troubles, but the chemistry is already there with guys like Diggs, Rudolph, and Treadwell. Thielen didn’t show that he and Cousins had chemistry, but it is easy to form chemistry with a guy who is always getting open. Then to end the year, saying that facing Atlanta and Detroit is a good thing is a stretch. Atlanta has a good running game and have been picked by a lot of people to win the NFC. Detroit is always a tough game for any team, with Stafford slinging the ball around and the additions of LeGarrette Blount and drafting the young Kerryon Johnson will give the Lions a running game for the first time 5 years. You can also make the case for Chicago being a tough game, but I trust Detroit more than I trust Chicago.
Point 2
Green Bay’s passing offense is among the best in the league. Having Rodgers makes any set of pass-catchers look worthy of Pro-Bowl consideration, but their talent is actually the real-deal. Not to mention their running game is worthy of attention from defenses around the league. If they can force defensive units into playing the run, this receiver core will see plenty of single coverage and open space down field.
Jimmy Graham is one of the most prominent red zone threats since he entered the league, having 10 TDs last year and clearly showing good rapport with Rodgers throughout training camp and the pre-season. This will be a dangerous combo. Davante Adams and Geronimo Allison have speed and some of the best hands in the NFL. Everyone knows what Adams can do as they’ve seen it for a few years now but Geronimo is a lesser known guy that’s been able to perform when Jordy Nelson was sidelined. He now has a chance to shine in 3WR sets and even 2WR sets as Randall Cobb is mainly locked into the slot receiver role. Speaking of Cobb, he’s the old man on the team but he sets a great model of work ethic and performance for their young group of receivers including Jake Kumerow who looked very good in preseason, and rookies Equanimeous St. Brown, J’Mon Moore and Marquez Valdes-Scantling.
Counterpoint 2
I will concede that Rodgers to Graham has been haunting my dreams since the signing happened, and I will also give you that Adams is a good receiver. I refuse to say that Geronimo Allison or any other guys from this list frighten me, but I could play receiver and Rodgers would make me a Pro Bowler. The Pass game can’t be denied, and it will be elite. My only rebuttal is that for every receiver Green Bay has, Minnesota has a corner that can match up and shut them down. Xavier Rhodes, Trae Waynes, Mike Hughes, all these guys are capable of covering for extended amounts of time and Harrison Smith can work his tail off to contain Graham, giving the Vikings pass rush enough time to get in Rodgers’ face and cause some turnovers or sacks. Also, Rodgers is coming off a throwing shoulder injury, and has broken both collarbones now, and collarbones are easy to break once they break once. Rodgers now has to face Everson Griffen twice, Khalil Mack twice, and Ezekiel Ansah twice, plus all the other elite NFC pass rushes he has this season.
Point 3
Green Bay’s DBs look primed for a big year and are looking to establish and protect a no-fly zone above the Frozen Tundra. The Packers have invested a lot of draft capital into DBs in the past few years and it’s starting to pay off. Not only that but they’ve brought back stars from the past to create a strong veteran presence to mentor these younger ball hawks. Haha Clinton-Dix is coming off a poor year but is still a veteran CB that QBs are smart to avoid. Tramon Williams and Davon House are back after successful stints elsewhere and will provide a depth of knowledge on opposing attacks for the younger talent on the roster including Josh Jackson, Josh Jones and Jaire Alexander.
Counterpoint 3
The Packers added some meh talent this offseason and drafted two guys I like, but I don’t trust to shut down receivers regularly. Clinton-Dix Is a good safety/corner but again, he had a down year and the Packers didn’t add any pass rushers of impact, meaning the quarterback will get plenty of time and you can only cover for so long before the receiver wins the route. The Packers got better in the secondary this offseason, but I don’t see it being so monumental that it changes the defense all together.
Kind-Of-A-Point
Rodgers signed the richest contract in NFL history last week and many thought he put the team in a tough spot for the next several years due to cap space concerns. That’s simply not true. It was a team friendly deal which only takes about $400K more from their 2018 cap space and leaves the packers $11 million under the cap. In fact, they actually saved more cap space than Rodgers’ new contract demands by trading Aaron’s backup, Brett Hundley, to the Seahawks. This frees them up to sign a monster in a trade or a free agent acquisition in the coming months (should one come around). They missed out on Khalil Mack (who signed the richest defensive deal in NFL history on Saturday with the Chicago Bears) but could see an opportunity in Earl Thomas or a similar caliber star which could further secure the defensive secondary, O-line, D-line or pass rushing core.
Kind-Of-A-Counterpoint
Brock Osweiler once signed a big contract and didn’t do anything the next season. Money doesn’t mean anything in this league it’s all about your play and the team around you. The best example of this is the horrendously underpaid Tom Brady, who takes pay cuts so his team can be better, and he is the undoubted greatest of all time, with a literal handful of rings to show for it. Rodgers deserves his contract because without him the Packers are a 6-win team, and with him they are a playoff contender.
Completely Spit-Balling Point
Aaron Rodgers still owes Davante Adams $20 (that’s right, just twenty dollars) from a debt in 2016. He’s hoping to repay the debt in TD passes. If we see 20 Rodgers-Adams TD passes this year, that would be the greatest debt repayment plan in history as he’d practically guarantee a rich next contract for Adams. I wonder what the interest rate would need to be in order to turn $20 in to $20M/year…
Completely Spit-Balling Counterpoint
This was funny. As I’ve said the Packers passing attack will be great because of Rodgers, and I’m sure all the Packers receivers will be good for the same reason. But Rodgers can throw all the touchdowns he wants, if the defense and run game isn’t there, the Packers won’t win a title and would be lucky to make the Conference Title Game. SKOL!