Yes, Kirk Cousins’ Cap Hit is Too High

Jan 9, 2022; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; A general view of U.S. Bank Stadium as Minnesota Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins (8) leads the offense during the game between the Minnesota Vikings and the Chicago Bears during the fourth quarter. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

Recently, SI‘s Will Ragatz participated in a roundtable that looks at the most overrated players on each NFC North team. Somewhat unsurprisingly, it’s Minnesota’s well-paid QB1 – Kirk Cousins – who gets chosen for the Vikings.

According to Ragatz, the issue largely stems from the discrepancy between his W/L record and the money he demands:

With a career record of 59-59-2 as a starter, Cousins has made it abundantly clear that he is a .500 quarterback. No, wins aren’t exclusively a QB stat, but at some point, your record is who you are. Cousins is paid like a top-5 quarterback and viewed by many Vikings fans as a top-10 player at the position, despite the reality that he’s somewhere in the 13-16 range.

Cousins’ impressive accuracy is overshadowed by his conservative decision-making, inconsistent pocket presence, and struggles to create outside of structure. Adding to that, his refusal to get vaccinated against COVID-19 caused him to miss a must-win game for the Vikings’ playoff hopes last year. After one postseason berth in four seasons, it’s apparent that the Vikings made the wrong call when they signed Cousins to a huge deal in 2018.

And yet, the team’s new brass decided to double down this offseason with another extension. Maybe Cousins escapes this label in 2022 under Kevin O’Connell, but it’s difficult to feel particularly confident in that happening.

Cousins carries a $31.416 million cap hit into the 2022 season (and that’s after a restructure brought the previous $45 million hit down). The other players included in the piece are GB’s Aaron Jones, Chicago’s Eddie Jackson, and Detroit’s Charles Harris.

As Ragatz notes, the problem is that Cousins is “paid like a top-5 quarterback” even though he isn’t in that category. When everything goes right, he can sneak into the league’s top 10, but it’s very clear he isn’t one of the game’s elite QBs. The discrepancy between his cap hit and on-field play is an issue.

When we look at quarterback cap hits in 2022, we find that Cousins comes in at third overall. In 2023, that spot on the list drops down to sixth (though it’s hard to say what a year will do to that ranking). Tannehill comes in ahead of Cousins but doesn’t have any guaranteed money left on his deal, per OTC. Unless he’s great this season, Tannehill will likely be cut. Dak Prescott, moreover, is scheduled to carry nearly $50 million into the 2023 cap. A restructure seems likely. The point, folks, is that even if a player or two leapfrog Cousins in 2023, there are at least a couple candidates to have their cap hits reduced. The Viking, then, are staring down consecutive years of Kirk Cousins cap hits that are far too high. Third overall in 2022 is wild; somewhere around sixth overall in 2023 is better but still too high.

In all of this, the crazy thing is that the perception of Cousins would be so much different if he simply accepted a more team-friendly deal. If his cap hit was somewhere around $25 million, most fans would be much more enthused about the purple QB. Another $6 million in cap space doesn’t sound like a ton, but it makes a difference. That’s money that could improve the iOL, sign a quality OLB3, or perhaps upgrade the corner spot. It’s money that could go toward a strong QB2, someone who has a chance of winning if Kirk Cousins goes down.

To be clear, Cousins has earned the right to pursue large money. He is a durable vet who consistently provides reasonably strong play at the game’s most important position. Teams will pay a lot for that kind of player. What he has also shown, though, is an inability to overcome challenging circumstances. Getting huge money and winning games has therefore been a challenge.

Obviously, the hope is that Kevin O’Connell somehow finds a way to unlock the veteran QB, but some are reasonably skeptical about this possibility. There’s very little chance Cousins provides good value on his deal. At best, he’ll show that he’s worth the money. In the salary cap NFL, teams need players to become a bargain to win (just look at the Rams last season; Matthew Stafford, Aaron Donald, Jalen Ramey, Cooper Kupp, Andrew Whitworth, and others all played on modest cap hits). Players like Christian Darrisaw, Justin Jefferson, and Za’Darius Smith will all need to outperform their deals. Getting enough quality contributors on modest deals can help offset the QB’s hit.

Hopefully, that’ll be enough for Minnesota to compete.

[brid autoplay=”true” video=”1044188″ player=”26281″ title=”WATCH%20Is%20Kirk%20Cousins%20Overpaid%20Or%20Underrated” duration=”524″ description=”Can Kirk Cousins be the catalyst for a successful playoff team or is the three-time Pro Bowl quarterback the anchor that continues to drag the Minnesota Vikings’ vessel off its course?Now that both the general manager and head coach have been replaced, Cousins is the biggest remaining question mark for the future of the Vikings’ organization. It was obvious that Washington didn’t want to pay Cousins as one of the highest-paid QBs in the league even after making the Pro Bowl in 2016. This was a clear indication that they didn’t view him as a franchise quarterback despite applying the franchise tag on Cousins twice.But the Vikings were happy to sign Cousins after the 2017 season with a fully guaranteed three-year contract worth $84 million in free agency. He’s since made two Pro Bowls with the team but has only led the Vikes to the playoffs once. Does that make his four-year tenure a failure so far?” uploaddate=”2022-06-30″ thumbnailurl=”undefined” contentUrl=”https://cdn.brid.tv/live/partners/17660/streaming/1043963/1043963.m3u8″ width=”16″ height=”9″]

Share: