Whoa, Nelly! Slow That Super Bowl Hype Train Just a Bit
Joe Oberle
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It’s the halfway point of the Vikings’ 2017 season—and they fortuitously have their bye week at a great time. The season’s midpoint and bye week for the Vikings is a great time for the team to heal, rest and reinvigorate, and it’s an even better time for fans to assess and either step to the ledge or exaggerate expectations. It is the latter that I, as the resident OG and wet blanket of relativism, am here for—to slow the roll, tap the brakes and restrict y’all from viewing the Vikings through Purple beer goggles.
Okay, okay, before you punch your computer screen or send off some vitriol laden texts my way, it isn’t as bad as all that. But a long time ago, a wise old professional sports sage—Kevin McHale while he was the Timberwolves general manager—told me that “you are never as great as they say you are and you never are as bad as they say.” That adage certainly holds true for most teams in the parity-laden, any-given-Sunday NFL and certainly applies to your 2017 Vikings.
The reason for writing this piece, of course, is that the Vikings are 6-2 with a game-and-a-half lead in the NFC North Division. They have the second best record in the league and would have a home playoff game if the season ended today. It doesn’t end today, so I am here to temper some postseason expectations (home field advantage in the Super Bowl, right?) while stoking the embers of hope for a great second half. Call me a buzzkill if you want, but I am in good company. Just check out what the head coach had to says when he was asked about the season so far.
“No different probably than anything I’ve said before,” Mike Zimmer said. “I think we’re running the ball better. Offense has been scoring points. Defense, we’ve been fairly solid. There’s a lot of areas we’re trying to get better at. We had too many negative plays the other day on offense. I don’t think we played our best game defensively the other day. Special teams we gave up a couple big plays. There’s some things that we’re working on. That’s what we’re trying to do this week, work on these things. I’m not going to get specific on it, but I gave the team and the coaches some things I want them to really concentrate on this week.”
So, while we have much to be pleased about regarding the Vikings’ first eight games, we must approach the second half of the season with guarded optimism. Therefore, here are some reasons why the Vikings fans should be giddy, and then an explanation detailing why they shouldn’t mortgage the house on the Vikings title chances.
The numbers: The Vikings statistical rankings are looking pretty good right now. The defense, which in no uncertain terms, is playing lights out and the biggest single factor to the team’s success this season. Without taking a deep dive into the analytics (I leave that LBVikings), the defense is ranked third in yards allowed per game (282.1 ypg.) and fourth in points allowed (16.9 ppg.). They are tough against the run (ranked fourth at 81.4 ypg.), which is a great improvement over last season (they ranked 20th at 106.9 ypg. in 2016). These are all numbers the team can rally around.
On offense, there is clearly improvement there, as well. Last season, the Vikings were the 28th-ranked offense, putting up an average of 315.1 yards per game—that was primarily due to the rushing game, which finished last with 75.3 yards per game. Well, currently the running game, despite the loss of rookie sensation Dalvin Cook (who still leads the team in rushing), is ranked 13th in the league at 120.0 ypg. That is quite an improvement. How much? Well, the Vikings recently put out this eight-game comparison from last year to this year:
Through 8 games:
2017
239 rushes
960 yards
4.02 average
7 TDs
2016
214 rushes
581 yards
2.71 average
4 TDs
That is quite remarkable since Cook went down in Game 4, and Latavius Murray and Jerick McKinnon have really picked up the slack.
So, what is not to like about the numbers? Nothing. The numbers are great. We should temper them, however, and consider that they all came against the teams in the Vikings’ easiest half of their schedule. And speaking of which . . .
The Record: The Vikings are 6-2 at the half way point. They were also 5-0 last season. Last year the Vikings flew out of the gate and then went stumbling through the middle of the season and fell flat in the post run, finishing with a disheartening 8-8 record. (This fact, above any other, is why we should stay optimistic but should not yet start shelling out for those Super Bowl tickets.)
So, 6-2 is good enough for the second best record in the NFL—tied with teams like the New England Patriots and Pittsburgh Steelers, for crying out loud. But the Vikings have indeed benefitted from an easier first eight games than they will face in the second half. The Vikings got wins over a New Orleans Saints team that had a porous defense, a Tampa Bay Bucs team that is now 2-5, a Baltimore Ravens team that is on a definite downturn from past seasons of dominance and a Cleveland Browns team that is, well, the Cleveland Browns. The Vikings had five home games in the first half and suffered a bad loss the Detroit Lions, who are now 3-4 and hanging on for dear life.
The second half the season offers up the following tough games: Washington on the road, the surprising 5-2 Los Angeles Rams (at home), Carolina Panthers, Atlanta Falcons and Green Bay Packers on the road, plus the Lions in Detroit on Thanksgiving. All winnable, but all definitely lose-able. The Vikings will play five road games in the second half—yet they are 2-1 one in road games thus far, so that is a bright spot.
The bottom line is that you make your hay in November and December in the NFL. Last season the Vikings could barely bail a victory in the second half, and this year they will all be tougher to come by. One definitely wants to take the Mike Zimmer approach and take them one game at a time.
The team’s health: Every team gets injuries, so the Vikings aren’t immune. Suffering the loss of your starting QB after week one and a star running back in week four, were two hefty blows to an offense that was hell-bent on improving this season. The Vikings have somehow weathered them both and remain in the lead in their division. That says this is deeper team than last season. But we also know things could change tomorrow.
Last year the injuries across the offensive line were the death knell for this team. The Vikings improve the line greatly in the offseason, and that’s been the biggest contributor to the offense’s improvement. But lately, the offensive line had been getting nicked up. Left tackle Riley Reiff has played great (no sacks surrendered in the first half), but he has been having some injury trouble of late and been replaced for a short time by Rashod Hill. Last week, Mike Remmers suffered a concussion and Hill stepped in. Danny Isidora has had to step in for left guard Nick Easton (and acquitted himself quite well for a rookie).
The turnaround in this unit has been nothing short of remarkable, and the depth has held up. But as a Vikings observer who saw what happened last season to the offensive line, we must only hope the law of averages leaning in the team’s favor and that the line can hold up the rest of the season. (And don’t think we didn’t notice Everson Griffen laying on the field holding his left leg–while the Purple Faithful held their collective breath—at the end of the game last week. This defense is great, but that’s because this unit has been playing together so well for a number of seasons. Any defections due to injury could hurt them.)
The Quarterback Situation: What can be said about this that hasn’t been already. Sam Bradford went down after one of the best games of his career in week one, and we have barely seen him since. Case Keenum has filled in very well, and even brought a new skill to the position (extending plays with his feet) that Vikings haven’t seen a lot of in recent times. But Keenum also has some limits, and more will be demanded of him in the second half, beginning with playing against a tough Rams defense. LBViking gives his assessment of Keenum’s play here.
Then there is Teddy Bridgewater, whose name has been swirling around the internet of late regarding the Nov. 8 deadline on whether or not the Vikings will activate him. We think Zimmer is being coy with his “we’ll see attitude” about it. But for me, the bottom line can be found in what general manager Rick Spielman said to reporters on Wednesday.
“What’s most important is what’s best for Teddy for the long haul,” Spielman told the Pioneer Press. “We would never put a player out there who’s not ready to play.”
They say if you have two quarterbacks you don’t have one (because neither is presumed good enough to take the job from the other). In this situation, the Vikings have three, and a fourth (Kyle Sloter) was warming up on the sidelines last week. While the Vikings quarterback situation is currently better than the one across the St. Croix river, a team that was wishing they could have corralled the wayward Brian Hoyer earlier this week, it is still not one that breeds a lot of confidence for eight more regular season wins and a romp through the playoffs.
Okay, okay, I have perseverated enough on this long enough. Just like you, I would like all my fears to be allayed and I could run to the liquor store to stock up on a bunch of Mankato Brewery’s Mad Butcher for the Super Bowl celebration, but more than fifty years of following this team has told me to keep it cool. Let it happen. You can hope for it, but don’t expect it. It’s so much better when we are surprised by something we didn’t know would happen than expecting it only to be disappointed. I am not saying it can’t happen, I am just not ready to say it is going to yet.
Then again, to hell with it. We should remember what happened last year. That really stunk. We had visions of the Super Bowl celebration after week five and watched them be dashed on the rocks of the head coach and his OC’s relationship. So, forget all I just said. The Vikes are in first place in the NFC North. They are kings of the North. Time to call in the dragons and finish what they started. Enjoy it all you want!