Vikings Can’t Hedge Their Bets at Quarterback This Offseason

Redskins QB Kirk Cousins completing a pass against the Vikings in a 2016 contest.

The only certainty about the Minnesota Vikings’ QB situation as we approach mid-February is that most fans are pretty certain about what they think the team should do. There are three distinct camps –
1. Those that want the Vikings to commit to Bridgewater and trust new Offensive Coordinator John DeFilippo to work his magic with another young signal caller.
2. Those that want the team to stay loyal to the man that led them to a 13-3 season and an NFC Championship Game in Case Keenum
3. Those that want the Vikings to look outside the organization and pay former Washington QB Kirk Cousins whatever it takes to get him in purple.

Of course, there’s also the smaller camp that believes in the obvious talent of Bradford, and also somehow believes he can play at least 16 games in the 2018 season. Each camp can make some solid arguments about their position, however, a common argument I have heard floating around is that the Vikings should hedge their bets somewhat – either by signing Bridgewater to a one year “prove it” deal worth $10-15 million, or franchising Keenum for a year at $22 million to make him put more runs on the board before committing to him long term. Proponents of this approach rightly point out that in 12 months time, the Vikings could make a much more informed decision about both Keenum and Bridgewater before committing either to a bigger deal. However, this approach is inherently a bad idea.

The Vikings have approximately $53 million in cap space heading into the 2018 season, with the only free agents the team likely looking to return headlined by Marcus Sherels, Terence Newman, Tom Johnson and Shamar Stephen, as Jerick McKinnon heads for greener pastures. Compare that free agent list to what we’re going to see in 12 months time, where the Vikings will need to attempt to retain a cohort led by Stefon Diggs, Anthony Barr, Eric Kendricks and Danielle Hunter.

What’s my point in all of this? Well, it’s a lose-lose situation by signing Keenum or Bridgewater to a one year deal. If they fail, it means the season was a waste, and they’re back to square one next off-season in their QB hunt. And if they succeed, well, QBs aren’t going to be cheaper in 12 months, and suddenly the Vikings will have to pay even more to one of them just at the time they have to re-sign a plethora of other expensive contracts.

The Vikings need to take advantage of the cap space they have in 2018 by front-loading a QB contract, giving them more room to manoeuvre next offseason. The San Francisco 49ers utilized this strategy in Jimmy Garoppolo’s five year deal that averages $27.5 million dollar annually. They structured it in such a way that he will earn $37 million in 2018, but only $20 million the following season. Likewise, it could make more sense for the Vikings to front-load a contract for Kirk Cousins in the same way.

The only situation in which I believe a one year deal to any of the three QBs (Braford included) is feasible is if the Vikings draft a QB early in the draft and plan on rolling with them into 2019. With only a handful of picks in the upcoming draft, the Vikings would likely need a top QB prospect to fall to pick 30 for this strategy to be successful.

But if the Vikings are confident their QB of the future Bridgewater, Keenum or Bradford, they might as well pull the trigger now on a long-term deal.

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