The Vikings Had a Down Year. Get Over It.
Dustin Baker
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The Minnesota Vikings lost several defensive starters during the 2020 offseason, mostly due to contractual differences and age. Speculation suggested that the team’s longstanding defensive supremacy would tumble but probably not to the bowels of the NFL. Head coach Mike Zimmer was supposed to be able to coach anybody to respectability on defense. Instead, the Vikings finished 2020 ranked 29th in defensive via points allowed while the offense checked in at 11th in the points-scored metric. Unlike ever before under Zimmer, Minnesota had an offense-only operation.
Las Vegas sportsbooks slated the Vikings to win about nine games and contend for the NFC North with the Green Bay Packers. The gambling minds undersold the Packers – Green Bay will host an NFC Championship this weekend. And then those oddsmakers oversold the Vikings by about two wins. Minnesota finished 7-9 and uninvited to the new, expanded NFL playoffs. The rival Chicago Bears took Minnesota’s spot. The New Orleans Saints — on Nickelodeon television — later clobbered Chicago during Wildcard Weekend.
So, we did the fire-everybody stuff. It’s commonplace. A down season amid a pandemic, injuries, a tricky schedule, and lack of preseason games was no match for the “fire them” lynch mob. As is the case on most occasions, the fire-everybody militants got it wrong. The head coach, general manager, and quarterback retain their occupations within the Vikings organization – at least for another year.
It’s time to get over it. Minnesota had a subpar season. 7-9, indeed, inspires a “meh” ambiance, but it was not a doomsday ordeal.
176 Games Lost to Injury
Per mangameslost.com, the Vikings encountered 176 lost football games to injury. That is the mathematical equivalent of 11 players missing a full 16-game slab of games. According to the same website, the Vikings injuries were the seventh-most impactful in terms of the caliber of players lost (and effect on the team).
The biggies that missed time included Danielle Hunter, Anthony Barr, Michael Pierce, Mike Hughes, and Eric Kendricks [in the season’s final four contests]. Can you imagine a Vikings offense that lost Kirk Cousins, Adam Thielen, Dalvin Cook, and perhaps Brian O’Neill? Because that is a reasonable facsimile of what the 2020 Vikings wrestled with on defense.
In that vein, it can even be interpreted as impressive that Minnesota found ways to win seven games. The 29th-ranked defense should have internally ravaged a team notoriously not known for offensive prowess. That did not happen. The Vikings offense was potent – to the tune of the fourth-most yards gained leaguewide.
Strength of Schedule No Cakewalk
When schedules unveiled last spring, Minnesota’s 2020 schedule was 10th-most difficult in the business. It did, though, soften up in games against the Dallas Cowboys when Dak Prescott was injured and versus the Carolina Panthers with Christian McCaffrey’s chronic injury woes.
Ergo, this analysis does not profess that Minnesota’s 2020 schedule was brutal – but it was not easy. The Vikings faced Deshaun Watson, Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, and Drew Brees – all in road games. They limped out of that gauntlet with a 2-3 record.
What’s more, it does not get any easier for 2021. Minnesota has the sixth-toughest schedule for 2021 as transcribed by the 2020 win-loss percentages. A lot can change between now and each 2021 game, but the initial forecast is grim.
Good Organizations, in Down Years, Win 7-8 Games
NFL teams that are renowned for success – like the Chiefs, Patriots, Steelers, Saints, or Ravens – rarely have awful seasons. It is a rarity to see one of the organizations blow out a 3-13 stinker. Why? Because these clubs are fundamentally constructed not to capitulate in the face of adversity. That is what happened to the 2020 Minnesota Vikings.
While some Vikings faithful wanted the team to “embrace the tank,” too much talent prevented that from occurring. Steady franchises avoid trashy years. In doing so, they typically finish with records like 7-9 or 8-8. “Something is wrong with these Steelers” means the team will miss the playoffs at 8-8 rather than bombing it to 2-14. Mike Tomlin and the Rooneys do not endorse such absurdity.
With Ben Roethlisberger as the Steelers quarterback, Pittsburgh has finished 8-8 or worse four times (2006, 2012, 2013, and 2019). This was a reputable franchise experiencing a down year.
The Saints and Drew Brees ended a season 7-9 or worse on six occasions (2007, 2008, 2012, 2014, 2015, and 2016). Again, an otherwise-stellar football team undergoing a disappointing season.
Since Zimmer arrived Minneapolis in 2014, the Vikings have been nibbling at the edges of becoming one of those upper-echelon franchises. They just need a Super Bowl. The 2020 Vikings avoided a 3-13 type of record because the head coach, player personnel, and general manager are better than that.
Now they need to bounce back in 2021 – just like Saints and Steelers in the aforementioned examples.