The Tale of Two Vikings Offenses
Josh Frey
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The Minnesota Vikings have consistently been one of the more frustrating teams to follow during the 2021 NFL season. The team sits at 3-5 after another disappointing loss in Baltimore, making all five of their early season losses by seven points or fewer. In fact, despite their bad record, the Vikings still have a positive point differential (+3).
It’s not like the team has underperformed statistically, either. Kirk Cousins has numbers that reflect a top QB in the league, Dalvin Cook has been terrific running the ball, and the duo of Adam Thielen/Justin Jefferson has seemingly picked up right where they left off in 2020.
So how does this team find themselves closer to the bottom of the standings than the top halfway through the season? Well, if nothing else, the loss to the Ravens only carried on a disturbing trend that has followed the Vikings throughout this entire year. After jumping out to a 14-3 lead early in the second quarter behind the strength of two long touchdown drives, the Vikings offense stalled out over the course of the final three quarters. After gaining 172 yards on those two drives, Minnesota would gain just 144 over the course of their final nine possessions.
Even considering this, the start of this game was impressive enough to put it into rarefied air for the Vikings season. It was just the fifth time they’ve scored touchdowns on back-to-back drives in 2020. For reference, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have accomplished the feat seven times just in their last four games.
Lightning Fast Starts
The truth is, this version of the Vikings is quite talented. A quarterback that takes care of the ball, dynamic receivers and running backs, an improved offensive line and defense; you can’t really ask for much more. With that, of all the frustrating things about this team, the one that causes some real hair-tearing is this: consistency. If you watched just the opening drives of each Minnesota Vikings game, you’d probably come to the conclusion that this team was a true contender en route to a Super Bowl appearance.
Unfortunately, if you watched the remainder of said games, you’d often find yourself wondering how this team managed to move the ball so easily just minutes earlier. Your eyes don’t deceive you, though. This team has gotten off to fast starts in nearly every game this season while quickly devolving into a shell of that success for the remainder of the contest.
Like many things in this league, numbers can help tell the story. First, let’s look at the good. The Vikings really are incredible coming out of the gates. Here’s the results of every opening drive for Minnesota since week one:
Punt
TD
TD
TD
FG
FG
TD
TD
That’s pretty good, folks. Since week one’s punt to open the season against Cincinnati, the Vikings have scored on every drive to begin their games. They’re averaging a whopping 5.1 points and 59.4 yards per drive on these possessions, but this terrific scoring isn’t the only thing that’s important.
Even if they didn’t score on every single one of these drives, as long as the opposing defenses are forced to stay on the field for extended periods of time, that could be considered a success. Minnesota has done a great job of this as well, and they’ve taken an average of 3:33 off the clock on these opening possessions. Again for reference, the NFL leaders in time per possession is Cleveland at 3:13 and points per possession is Arizona at 2.81. It’s obviously a small sample size, but the Vikings opening offense blows these numbers out of the water.
A Sad Vikings Comp
With all that good, there’s just as much bad, though. Following their opening drives, the Vikings are averaging 10.8 possessions per game. As quickly as the Vikings can heat up to start a game, they also disappear in rapid fashion. Over the course of these just under 11 possessions, the Vikings productivity freefalls. On these possessions, they’re averaging just 30.1 yards, 2:33 of game time, and a measly 1.7 points.
Looking at this drastic dip, it’s no wonder why the Vikings offensive rankings have fallen far below where they were in 2020. If we took out the eight drives that have opened Vikings games this season, they’d be very comparable to the New York Giants in terms of offensive production. The Giants are scoring 1.72 points per drive while averaging 30.5 yards and taking 2:40 of game time. And wouldn’t you know it, New York even has a similar record to the Vikings, sitting at 3-6 in the NFC East.
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Final Thoughts
Despite a comparison to the New York Giants, there is far too much pedigree on this Vikings offense for them to find themselves in that tier. That just makes the lack of production all the more befuddling, but there are probably a couple reasons to point to for this. First, one that half of Vikings fandom will praise while the other half condemns: Kirk Cousins is a good not great QB.
Cousins is probably the ultimate floor-raiser as a the guy under center. There will never be a time when a team with Captain Kirk isn’t at least competitive in games, despite the “garbage time stats” moniker that often has falsely been applied to his performances. However, Cousins lacks a consistent “it” factor that championship caliber quarterbacks have (i.e. Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Russell Wilson, etc.). Sometimes he will come through with a big drive with gutsy throws; other times he will constantly dump off to his flat option.
Another, perhaps more optimistic, possibility is that Klint Kubiak is still learning his way as a play-caller. This is a bit unfortunate given the amount of close games that the Vikings have played in where some questionable plays have impacted the result. For a fan base expecting to be a competitor this year, these lapses are only magnified. However, there is some good news with this option. It lies in the fact that its obvious he can write one hell of a script ahead of each game. The Vikings offense has looked crisp to start every game, and if Kubiak can perhaps improve his on-the-fly calls, it will be a lethal unit. Until something gives though, the Vikings will likely remain in the same tier as the New York Giants.